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Jan Lr Figures, Due 8am 28th Feb 2008

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Down 0.5%

We're still at the top of the rollercoaster defying gravity. April is when we all spill our popcorn buckets.... WHOOOOOOOSH!

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Will finally start to see the time-lag effect unwind and get this index in line with the others.This one will reflect deals struck around October ,crunch plus two months.

Not entirely sure about that; London was still up high then, and the sheer volume of London transaction tends to skew things. More likely to show trends in the regions.

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Not entirely sure about that; London was still up high then, and the sheer volume of London transaction tends to skew things. More likely to show trends in the regions.

Agree. Stand easy until April, HPC troops.

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I voted up .5% because transactions are dropping and fewer cheap houses are selling leaving the rich to dabble for awhile longer before the whole market tumbles down.

And don't forget the LR lags by quite a few months and includes houses that have been improved before re-sale.

The BBC version of the LR shows marked falls in many regions, including my own which is down 4.8% in the final Q of 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm

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I voted up .5% because transactions are dropping and fewer cheap houses are selling leaving the rich to dabble for awhile longer before the whole market tumbles down.

And don't forget the LR lags by quite a few months and includes houses that have been improved before re-sale.

The BBC version of the LR shows marked falls in many regions, including my own which is down 4.8% in the final Q of 2007.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm

The fact that property is improving is always a tricky one.

For example, I was looking at this house this morning on rightmove while on the phone to a local EA about it.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-149...=1&tr_t=buy

Sold back in 2001 for about 60K and they want 150K.

Apparently when it sold in 2001 it was just a shell.

Now don't get me wrong, it needs a few changes, but generally OK I thought. Apparently she will take offers at about 150K.

So how do you know how much of this was improvement was "real" and how much is just HPI, AKA fiction.

The answer is you don't and there is no way of finding out. The best I have done is see that the next door place sold for 80K in the same year, assuming it was in good condition that leave HPI of 70K, or about 85% in 5 years. It does look quite spacious though, but I am sure there are much better deals to come.

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Will finally start to see the time-lag effect unwind and get this index in line with the others.This one will reflect deals struck around October ,crunch plus two months.

Yes

expect a figure of -.3% to -.6%

YOY should show a sizable fall

Edited to add

Just noticed this is the first time that I think rates will actually be lower than the average prediction!

Prices have actually been falling for over a few months now. This is a fact with even the VIs admitting the obvious.

Edited by Flat Bear

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Up 0.5 coz they will be fudged just like the rest of the figures (However that does included carpets/curtains/White Goods/2x Leather DFS sofa's, gaurenteed rent for 2 years, 2x(7 day) holidays for 2, a deposit on a ford fous and your deposit/stamp duty paid)

Take that out then it would be down 1%

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YOY should show a sizable fall

Nope, sorry.

LR figures will include sales reported to them in Nov, Dec and Jan. These will be based on sales agreed in June to Nov. Whilst there may be a small MoM fall, YoY will remain a high positive figure.

Remember kids, LR stands for Lagging Record.

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Broadly unchanged because

They will be seasonally adjusted up

They are based on sales agreed around june - august

The Nationwide data tomorrow is the one to watch and Halifax next week.

Nationwide states the average house price which is not seasonally adjusted and Halifax gives adjusted and una djusted figures

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Plus 0.9% :o

Cue the Daily Express.

Still, it will be a "Blow to homeowners expecting further rate cuts". :)

Edit: Changed Queue to Cue, idiot.

Edited by bobthe~

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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