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Daily Telegraph - 27/02/08 - "30pc To 40pc Correction Over The Next Few Years"

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Daily Telegraph - Vince Cable

His long boom is now heading for a messy end with a slowing economy, rapidly weakening consumer and business confidence, a collapsing asset bubble in the housing market and a big hole in the budget.

So far these problems seem remote from most families. There is a feeling as on those late, sultry summer days where there is blue sky overhead and cricket is being played; but there are wickedly black clouds billowing up.

Until the rain falls the Government will not get a soaking. But wise people are looking for shelter.

A lot of pundits are positioning themselves to be wise after the event. But I have long warned Gordon Brown that unbalanced growth led by consumer spending based on borrowing was not sustainable because it did not reflect any underlying improvement in the fundamentals of productivity growth and innovation. I warned him of "record levels of personal debt which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level". That was five years ago.

Since then debt and house prices have inflated enormously to levels which, in relation to income, are now the most extreme in the developed world. The bubble is now bursting. Forward markets tell us that house prices are likely to fall 10pc on average this year. Serious people anticipate a 30pc to 40pc correction over the next few years.

The market has to correct itself. An adjustment may even be socially progressive if it restores affordability. The Government should certainly not acquire, as in the US, household mortgage liabilities. It already owns enough via Northern Rock. I worry about the pressure from mortgage lenders for a government bail-out in the form of state support for mortgage payments. There are, however, several sensible steps the Government can take

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Good piece. I'm going to vote Lib Dem next time entirely due to Vince, that and the fact that the other two parties are a bunch of useless w@nkers.

I'm with you on that. Vince is teh only guy who has consistently told it how it is .. the only politiican who could see that the emporer had no clothes. The other parties were too concerned about upsetting the money for nothing fantasies of the home owning classes and the city.

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Vince has been virtually the only politician who's been switched onto this from the start.The Boy george either just didn't want to tell the people it was a sham or hadn't worked it out.Having seen him perform,either could be true.

The only problem with the Lib Dems is the rest of them.

Agreed. We should therefore submit to a benevolent dictatorship by His Most Liberal Vinceness.

(BTW Is it Clegg in charge of the Lib Dems now? I forget)

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Guest KingCharles1st
The only problem with the Lib Dems is the rest of them.

I have to agree- I voted Lib Dem twice (not last two times- tory) because I really rated Paddy Pantsdown as a decent guy with strong and sensible ideals. However, the rest are just a bunch of sandal wearing "after you"bearded tank top inhabitants- and the men are even worse..

How far can one swing- from Lib Dem- to BNP or another "Brit party" gosh

Edited by KingCharles1st

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Jesus, there is a bit where he says there may be pressure from mortgage lenders ( :angry: ) for state support for mortgage payments! If it ever comes to this, then this government can f*ck off, because I am leaving immediately.

What about state support for my rental bill?

They couldn't possibly countenance this, could they!?! :unsure:

other than that, I fully agree that Vince is a natural heavyweight proper politician, very much in the Kenneth Clarke tradition; if he was fronting up the LibDems I would definitely vote for them. As it is, I still will probably vote for them. He is simply the only one in the public eye at the moment who is telling it like it is. CHRIST, WHY SHOULD IT BE SO HARD FOR OUR "LEADERS" TO TELL THE TRUTH FOR ONCE!?! It is telling how corrupt and sh1t our political system has become when we are forced to get all frothy and excited because ONE politician has the integrity to say 2+2=4.

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Agreed. We should therefore submit to a benevolent dictatorship by His Most Liberal Vinceness.

(BTW Is it Clegg in charge of the Lib Dems now? I forget)

Yes he is. Not making much of an impact though unlike Mr Cable.

How refreshing he is as a politician, someone I respect and believe.

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Guest KingCharles1st

I suppose it's a real shame you can't re-write "football manager" and choose your own super team of MPs- how about "Power parliament?"

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It's an absolute tragedy that only Vince Cable can speak the truth because we live in a two-party state. What a colossal waste.

so very true.

Our system has turned every other party into little more than a pressure group.

At least it allows them freedom to express themselves 'radically' without having to toe the party line so strictly...

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Mr Cable sounds like an intelligent man, but didn't we once say that about Brown.

Brown is undoubtedly very smart. Unfortunately it is not in economics or, by his own admission, maths. His true talent lies in mass deception and trickery. In another life GB could be one of these cult leaders who lure the unsuspecting to suicide, having first convinced them to hand over all their material wealth.

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Good piece. I'm going to vote Lib Dem next time entirely due to Vince, that and the fact that the other two parties are a bunch of useless w@nkers.

I think I might do the same. Vince is PM material IMO. Anyone want to nominate him as the patron saint of HPC.co?

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I think I might do the same. Vince is PM material IMO. Anyone want to nominate him as the patron saint of HPC.co?

Heh heh - shall I write to him and ask? :lol:

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Mr Cable sounds like an intelligent man, but didn't we once say that about Brown.

I didn't. Anyone who claims he has eliminated the business cycle deserves to be consigned to a university chair somewhere, or perhaps a 6th Form College.

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"for state support for mortgage payments! "

I'm sure Gordon would like nothing better than to arrange some kind of bail out for the financially illerate (most people under 35) but it still has to be paid for and they are flat broke.

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Heh heh - shall I write to him and ask? :lol:

Yes! I emailed him weeks ago when the Libdem leadership was open and said he would be the man for the job---of PM. I think Cameron should invite him to be Chancellor and do a deal with the Libdems at the next election. They are starting to sound like a real party recently with all of the purple shirt flim flam seemingly gone--at last!

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Yes he is. Not making much of an impact though unlike Mr Cable.

How refreshing he is as a politician, someone I respect and believe.

Ditto. I think it unfortunate that I can't vote for him directly... I don't believe in his party (or the other two, for that matter) but Vince Cable is my idea of what a politician should be.

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I think Cameron should invite him to be Chancellor and do a deal with the Libdems at the next election.

That is an idea I applaud.

Wasn't it Lord Saatchi who had a go at the Conservatives for missing a huge opportunity to stake a claim on the economy? I can only assume that their reason for staying quiet is that, like with Labour, none of their MPs understand it.

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Id vote for vince, just as i would vote for ken clark. Both talk a lot of sense. Its refreshing to hear their oppinions on matters, rather than the usual NuLabour 'low inflation, low interest rates, record police, low unemployment bla bla bla'

Someone should start a thread to put together a dream team of present politicians to run the UK.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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