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Traktion

If It Happens In America...

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Some cities which had seen the biggest boom in property prices over the last five years saw the sharpest decline with homeowners in Miami suffering a 17.5 per cent fall over 2007 as a whole.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3439984.ece

I spotted the link in the main forum, but I thought it was pertinent for NI. We've discussed how NI went into bubble overdrive and, from looking at the US, it suggests the bust may be just as spectacular. We've seen hints of this in recent reports, but it's certainly interesting to read about.

Let us remember that the boom in NI only lasted 2/3 for the main part. Should we expect even steeper declines than Miami?

Edited by Traktion

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3439984.ece

I spotted the link in the main forum, but I thought it was pertinent for NI. We've discussed how NI went into bubble overdrive and, from looking at the US, it suggests the bust may be just as spectacular. We've seen hints of this in recent reports, but it's certainly interesting to read about.

Let us remember that the boom in NI only lasted 2/3 for the main part. Should we expect even steeper declines than Miami?

Yes. IMHO.

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credit homeless

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article2....umentid=4349836

.........../........

'A boarded-up bungalow on the city's west side brought $1,300. A four-bedroom house near the original Motown recording studio sold for $7,000.'

"You can't buy a used car for that," said Izairi. "It's a gamble, and you have to wonder how low it's going to get."

............./...........

let's not forget though that America is a big place and in some states prices have hardly fallen.

this is a good map which pinpoints sub-prime areas

http://www.alpharamblings.com/subprime.php

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Agreed, but I thought it was interesting about the sharp rise in Miami resulting in big falls too. NI has certainly had a sharp rise, so I can see parallels there.

I don't think the Detroit situation will happen here though. That city has been struggling with unemployment, crime, a dwindling population and I think this is just another nail in the coffin.

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I don't think the Detroit situation will happen here though. That city has been struggling with unemployment, crime, a dwindling population and I think this is just another nail in the coffin.

hang on doesn't Belfast have a struggle w. unemployment, crime, a dwindling population?

Of course Detroit used to have jobs until recently - not like Belfast which had jobs 100 years ago but not much really since.

What you could say now is that the average home costs less in Belfast than a 2nd hand car - albeit a Delorean.

Oh - and we have loads of boarded up places - there is a place i've heard of, ghost-town really, called Lurgan.

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Agreed, but I thought it was interesting about the sharp rise in Miami resulting in big falls too. NI has certainly had a sharp rise, so I can see parallels there.

RB (on the main boards) is always comparing California to the UK, so maybe Miami is the NI comparative (I agree on the rise dynamics).

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hang on doesn't Belfast have a struggle w. unemployment, crime, a dwindling population?

Of course Detroit used to have jobs until recently - not like Belfast which had jobs 100 years ago but not much really since.

What you could say now is that the average home costs less in Belfast than a 2nd hand car - albeit a Delorean.

Oh - and we have loads of boarded up places - there is a place i've heard of, ghost-town really, called Lurgan.

I see where you're coming from, but I think Detroit has been on the edge of extinction for quite some time. IIRC, Jeremy Clarkson wrote a bit about it and visited it as some sort of homage to US cars. I know it's not the best source :lol:, but it was interesting hearing about it. The gist of it was:

- population had halved (before housing boom/bust!)

- many police "no go" areas where the criminals basically ran the places

- a section of town patrolled by the police and locals where the rich(er) peoples lived and still did drag racing etc.

It sounded like the place was on the verge of complete meltdown a few years back, already. Now with this housing bust, I'm wondering whether it really will just become a complete ghost city. I mean, can you imagine it? HALF the population leaving a city... If it ends up at a quarter, it would be very weird to live there, like something out of one of those post apocalyptic movies or some such!

I think the thing is with the US is that there are so many big cities about the place, that you could just move to another. Perhaps we'll get ghost towns/villages over here though, especially the (second) holiday home areas. Those could turn into squaters' paradises! :unsure:

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Sure - if you drive in the countryside you always come across an old abandoned house - typically next to a large rectangle with a triangle on the top called a detached villa.

Ireland suffered from a 50% drop in population from the famine - the black death must have harmed property values too.

so this is nothing new.

Just visited Northern England and talked to people from there - high unemployment, shit wages etc...

asked them if they would consider moving to where there is work and they said "no- it's our home"

thing is, these industrial towns weren't always there - and people moved to where there was work.

what we are seeing in america is jobs relocating and people twigging on - maybe here people are too attached to friends/family (why would they not have already moved).

Belfast has seen real falls in its population - inner city areas are not inhabited by foreign workers (Filipino nurses etc...), students and angry disenfranchised Spides - there are some good people left but they are the minority.

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The Northern Ireland property bubble will be in textbooks soon enough:

- 21k average wage vs 250k average house price

- 70% state employment

- "but I thought house prices only ever went up" attitude

- double-whammy of credit crunch/recession

How we will look back and laugh at 200k for a one bed flat!

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Helen Carson can become the lecturer/author on the NI HP bubble lecture series since she either masterminded or fore-saw this coming (to NI).

Or was just a windcock that didn't see the storms on the horizon.

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Helen Carson can become the lecturer/author on the NI HP bubble lecture series since she either masterminded or fore-saw this coming (to NI).

Or was just a windcock that didn't see the storms on the horizon.

I just always thought she was clueless and was just repeating what people had told her... :lol:

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I just always thought she was clueless and was just repeating what people had told her... :lol:

...alledgedly of course ;)

Edited by subby

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Agreed, but I thought it was interesting about the sharp rise in Miami resulting in big falls too. NI has certainly had a sharp rise, so I can see parallels there.

I don't think the Detroit situation will happen here though. That city has been struggling with unemployment, crime, a dwindling population and I think this is just another nail in the coffin.

Detroit - flew into it one Hallowe'en night about 10 years ago. Youngsters had set an abandoned tower block on fire and it was blazing. Spooky.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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