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When Wil The Fall Happen?

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When will the fall happen in London? I reckon that sentiment/hope is still holding out but that by mid-may it will be in freefall. The "spring bounce" will not have materialised and with it the last hope that somehow London house prices can defy economic commen sense. We lag about 6 months behind Amercia and that will put us in mid november their time which is about when the s%$t was hitting the fan....

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On friday we get Nationwide HPI numbers and Mortgage approovals.

Forecast for Nationwide is to report HPI as unchanged!!!!

It would be nice to see a big drop over the next 3 months. If nothing materialises, i'm gonna throw in the towel and buy something.

Edit:

me buying something will be the sign for crash to start. I can guarantee it.

Edited by beans on toast

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That is the sixty four million dollar question. House prices went down quite slowly in the states, but now seems to be gathering pace. I think we're going to have to wait for another year for really good sized drops, that's my guess.

What is a good size drop? 5%, 10%, or greater?

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
On friday we get Nationwide HPI numbers and Mortgage approovals.

Forecast for Nationwide is to report HPI as unchanged!!!!

It would be nice to see a big drop over the next 3 months. If nothing materialises, i'm gonna throw in the towel and buy something.

Edit:

me buying something will be the sign for crash to start. I can guarantee it.

Haha. Nutjob. We're just at the crimped tip of a mighty shitstorm.

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me buying something will be the sign for crash to start. I can guarantee it.

I thought that, too! When it comes to making bad choices, you'd be hard pressed to beat me. And yes, I drive a Rover :lol:

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It has already began to drop. We are past the levelling out stage and have just began to start falling.

I predict that in late summer / early autumn 08 people will give up hope of a soft landing and we will witness the start of the big decreases in house prices (in real terms) to start gathering pace.

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I'm sure there are people here with the dates burnt into their memories. Can somebody please jot down the main reports and the dates they come out. I seem to find out within a few hours of a report appearing, but would like to know when to expect them.

I mean things like (but not limited to):

- RM asking price report

- CML (mortgage approvals? other?)

- LR

- Nationwide (not sure what report)

... but you know the list I mean.

Thanking you in anticipation as I will then be able to plan my year watching them.

:)

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What is a good size drop? 5%, 10%, or greater?

8.9 percent in a quarter.

Beans on toast, why the hell buy now? It's not going up, so you're not missing out. If the market can turn back up and go on another bull run, well I'll eat Krusties hat.

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When will the fall happen in London? I reckon that sentiment/hope is still holding out but that by mid-may it will be in freefall. The "spring bounce" will not have materialised and with it the last hope that somehow London house prices can defy economic commen sense. We lag about 6 months behind Amercia and that will put us in mid november their time which is about when the s%$t was hitting the fan....

It will vary a lot from region to region but for the big 20-40% falls I think ( with small number of exceptions) its going to be either August/Sept this year or summer next year.

Aside from distressed sellers most other people will stubbornly hold on for price X they've been told they will get. A fair number who don't get it will just decide to stay put; others will either panic and drop to catch the last of the market before the Xmas slowdown or be stubborn enough to keep on for many more months.

It will be a snowball, slow at first but when it picks up pace it will get there.

I wouldn't count on getting a decent supply of housing during it though. As posters from the last crash point out most people just bunker down rather than accept a loss. The supply will be restricted but there will be some good stuff in the dross. Provided you've got a decent deposit/credit history and your not in an area with a lot like you then there should be some good bargains.

I've a bad feeling the net result of the crash will be several generations who are still stuck renting, unable to buy but for different reasons than just now. Not only will the greedy BTL'ers suffer but so will pretty much everyone.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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