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sophia

When Is The Bottom Of This Market?!

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Hi Campers!

The question we all want to know the answer to! I would like some opinions as to when prices will be at their lowest! What is your own opinion/theory etc...... when should I buy again basically........???!!!

I still think it will take a while for prices to go down, I expected more drops after the recent media coverage and was suprised there wasnt more......... what do ya'll think,

love sophia

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Agreed, 4-5 years until the lowest point, maybe. Saying that, there may be reasonable deals in 2-3 years imo, as most of the froth should have been blown off by then.

BTW, I thought the recent drops were pretty massive - what were you expecting Sophia? Armageddon?! :D 20% or so in 3 months is a very high figure and if it keeps up at that rate, I'll be changing my 'reasonable deals' time frame to 1-2 years.

At the end of the day, it's probably best to buy when you think the prices are 'reasonable' again. This may not be quite the lowest point, but at least you'd have avoided the high prices near the peak.

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when should I buy again basically........???!!!

Buy when no-one is talking about property. When the man in the street is saying that it is a really bad idea to invest in property, you should start looking!

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Buy when no-one is talking about property. When the man in the street is saying that it is a really bad idea to invest in property, you should start looking!

In answer to your original question Sophia, I could produce a long-winded answer pointing to different graphs (comparing index data and nominal data), acknowledging different variables, crystal ball time analysis etc. etc.

but instead I will refer to mmca22gr answer above which is bang on the mark.

When your 'average Joe' (not hpc readers) thinks that property is a bad investment and there is general widespread little appetite to buy, when the obsession with property has passed, when the majority of Estate Agents are humble with their opinion, when prices are stagnant and there is seemingly no possibility of future growth in the near to mid term future, this is the time to buy.

Warren Buffett's mantra through and through

PS - remember to target you preferred property a long time before buying, i.e. if you want a flat on the north coast, or a three bed terrace near Ravenhill, make sure you do your homework first, because there will be discrepancy between areas and property types.

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I've been told already by a work colleague that I've 'missed the boat' again and prices are on the rise.

Don't worry, it was the Titanic.

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I've been told already by a work colleague that I've 'missed the boat' again and prices are on the rise.

So there you go, the crash is over.

Without knowing the person in question, but assuming they are an 'average Joe' who does not spend an exhaustive amount of their time looking at property prices etc. :P;), then this is precisely why it is not the time to buy.

With the assumptions above still in place, when that person starts saying that buying property is for fools, well you might start thinking that it is indeed a good time to buy.......

apologies for the broad generalisations but hopefully the point comes through

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The question we all want to know the answer to! I would like some opinions as to when prices will be at their lowest! What is your own opinion/theory etc...... when should I buy again basically........???!!!

The only thing I am certain of, is that all housing bubbles deflate differently. Sorry, I know that does not help.

I know a few people are rushing out and buying properties now. But this is now a falling market. Buying this year is a big mistake.

My opinion is that prices should look alot more reasonable by autumn 2010. Even then I will intend to be negotiating hard for a lower price.

I would expect to see the prices hit bottom around 2012 and remain there for several years.

While I like the short-sharp-shock theories. Repossessions and forced sales will take some time have their effect. Initially, I expected to see prices sticky on the way down. However, if prices are falling at £6,500 a month as the University of Ulster reports suggest - then these theories may prove correct.

Edited by Belfast Boy

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This crash is accelerating, look at the reductions every week, once this feeds into the next quarterly report the heads will come off the chickens. The next report could bring average price to 200k - then who knows?

The earliest I will consider buying is end 2009, might be better end 2010

How's the baby?

Edited by Vespasian

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I would like to buy in the Lisburn area. From my reading of this market I feel there will be further drops to come as there will be major supply coming to the market soon with some major developments such as the wood brook 'eco village' of up to 2000 units over the next ten years. So I believe with the further competition from these, which while not the cheapest appear to be priced a good 20k less then other developments in the Lisburn area and with the already high inventory already there looks like further falls to come. There does appear to be some movement in sale of the houses that are priced below the 'pack' but as a total of the stock on the market this is relatively small.

It also depends on how the houses above your basic semi goes as I believe there is a great demand for these type of houses in the area but without a reduction in the step up in price then there will be less people willing to put their house on the market and accept a lower price if that step up is not achievable.

There are many basic semis priced at the 220k level in Lisburn which in my opinion need to drop down to sub 200k to get any real interest in them as that is the level were in the boom that the action was happening with FTBs excluding the 'investor activity' which drove them above the 200k mark. I see many properties that had lots of interest sub 200k and offers but for what ever reason did not sell and are now back on at 220k and appear to be getting no interest at all. I feel that the price range of say around 160-180k for these semis would probably get the market going in the Lisburn area.

So I am thinking of buying maybe 2009 but it depends on how the drops occur! At the end of the day it is to be a home and not an investment!

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Also I'll be looking for average house price @ 5 times average income. Then I'll be negotiating hard for a good price on my new house ;)

Though I'll be keeping a careful eye on how bad things are in America... Interesting 5 page article...

Housing Meltdown - click here.

Shocking though it might seem, a decline of 25% from here would merely reverse the market's spectacular appreciation during the boom

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My prediction would be that most of the decline in house prices here will happen over the next 2 years.

I will be making no attempt to guess the bottom of the market; when I see a house I like at a price I think is reasonable, I will buy. Simple as that.

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I would not be inclined to call bottom.... I suspect that we will have seen the majority of the falls within the next year or two. After that, any falls are likely to be less significant and thus it is safer to buy.

As far as when is safe to buy.... that is a different question. If you are in it for a longish term, you can safely buy as soon it is genuinely affordable to you. If you are in it for only a couple of years then you need to be a bit more cautious.

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Hi Campers!

The question we all want to know the answer to! I would like some opinions as to when prices will be at their lowest! What is your own opinion/theory etc...... when should I buy again basically........???!!!

I still think it will take a while for prices to go down, I expected more drops after the recent media coverage and was suprised there wasnt more......... what do ya'll think,

love sophia

Sophia, there have been quite substantial falls already!!! It's definitely falling faster than the Republic even. I agree with Traktion (below).

Agreed, 4-5 years until the lowest point, maybe. Saying that, there may be reasonable deals in 2-3 years imo, as most of the froth should have been blown off by then.

BTW, I thought the recent drops were pretty massive - what were you expecting Sophia? Armageddon?! :D 20% or so in 3 months is a very high figure and if it keeps up at that rate, I'll be changing my 'reasonable deals' time frame to 1-2 years.

At the end of the day, it's probably best to buy when you think the prices are 'reasonable' again. This may not be quite the lowest point, but at least you'd have avoided the high prices near the peak.

I've been told already by a work colleague that I've 'missed the boat' again and prices are on the rise.

So there you go, the crash is over.

Well, there you go! Blink and you missed the crash!

:lol:

Seriously though - there may a few people who think like this, but there certainly aren't enough of them to soak up the ENORMOUS oversupply of houses that we have. So don't worry - the crash still has another 3-4 years to run I reckon! I'll buy as near to the bottom as possible - prices are now going in the right direction but they have some way to go before they get close to rateable value!!!

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Talking about rateable value, I agree that's probably a pretty good point to aim for. Perhaps when we're approaching rateable value +20%, the bottom is approaching. It may dip below this or take an aye to reach rateable value +5-10% (as there *has been* a small, steady rise over the last decades).

It's quite handy to have that rateable value site to hand to check too. It makes is dead easy to find out where the "target price" is! :)

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Talking about rateable value, I agree that's probably a pretty good point to aim for. Perhaps when we're approaching rateable value +20%, the bottom is approaching. It may dip below this or take an aye to reach rateable value +5-10% (as there *has been* a small, steady rise over the last decades).

It's quite handy to have that rateable value site to hand to check too. It makes is dead easy to find out where the "target price" is! :)

I agree! Can we have a new topic on it maybe?

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I've put a link to the Rateable value site for newbies on the Useful site thread further down the page. I definitely think this should be a topic to see if we can track house prices coming closer to R.V. - its a great pity we can't get Land Registry prices for accuracy though since asking prices are no guide now.

I have my own reservations using RV data, like you say it's a shame LR data is not easily obtainable.

As you know (I'm sure I mentioned it a few times :D) I am a big fan of Nationwides historical average nominal data, yes it has problems (delayed, averaged, no distinction between prop. types and areas) but it's real data, so I will be putting a link to this data on the other thread.

Keep it real ;)

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Can you expand? Not literally, obviously... :unsure:

Yes - I am fond of tea-cakes!

Seriously, look at my example for instance, I live in a new-built house, we approached the council to notify them of the dwelling and start paying rates.

About a year later we got our bill and I saw our address listed on the RV website with the RV value.

Therefore, someone somewhere applied that value (yes they may have resourced historical data etc.) but basically the judgement was still on that person to apply a value. Hence, human error and all of the associated bias (if any) were in existence.

My point about Historical data is that, at least it is based on real sales (averaged of course) but real sales, not someones interpretation of what a house is worth.

edit - typo

Edited by prophet-profit

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Where I live some houses are being advertised at circa 20% below peak value but a few are actually selling up to 33% below peak (to investors surprisingly) which brings them a lot closer to their rateable value. I think that is where prices will stop dropping in nominal terms as those desperate to sell will have sold and at those price points someone with a 15% deposit would see the rent covering an I/O mortgage. Other areas might not have have come this far this quick however-local EA's are being quite frank here!

Edited by championmongo1

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which is approx. 20% above rateable values

Yes I've noticed too. Although there aren't that many, it is currently possible to purchase the odd house at RV+20%

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Yes - I am fond of tea-cakes!

Seriously, look at my example for instance, I live in a new-built house, we approached the council to notify them of the dwelling and start paying rates.

About a year later we got our bill and I saw out address listed on the RV website with the RV value.

Therefore, someone somewhere applied that value (yes they may have resourced historical data etc.) but basically the judgement was still on that person to apply a value. Hence, human error and all of the associated bias (if any) were in existence.

My point about Historical data is that, at least it is based on real sales (averaged of course) but real sales, not someones interpretation of what a house is worth.

Look at properties in the country the ratable value is usually lower than that of a home in urban or suburban areas, ( mostly to do with amenitiens, sewerage method, ect. ) Although some people might prefer to live in the country.

In 2004 I built a house 3400 sq ft @ £59 per sq ft = £200,600.00 that included a double detached garage and the house finished (ie wooden flooring, tiling). The site was £68,500.00 making the total cost to build £269,100.00. The ratable value of this property today is £270,00.00, this couldn't be the right value for a 3400 sq ft 6 bedroom home in the country on 1.2 achers.

The point being the ratable values don't seem to reflect the value of certain homes.

Edited by statinstoinker

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Look at properties in the country the ratable value is usually lower than that of a home in urban or suburban areas, ( mostly to do with amenitiens, sewerage method, ect. ) Although some people might prefer to live in the country.

In 2004 I built a house 3400 sq ft @ £59 per sq ft = £200,600.00 that included a double detached garage and the house finished (ie wooden flooring, tiling). The site was £68,500.00 making the total cost to build £269,100.00. The ratable value of this property today is £270,00.00, this couldn't be the right value for a 3400 sq ft 6 bedroom home in the country on 1.2 achers.

The point being the ratable values don't seem to reflect the value of certain homes.

Yes I agree with this, especially with particular regard to country homes.

On the (country) road where I live, I know of many people who had their house built from scratch, so presumably their experience is the same as mine - in that it was up to the council to 'calculate' a value for rate purposes based on the number of rooms etc. from 'scratch'

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Interesting post from the Motley Fool PP - can you advise if it is accurate?

from TMF

It's been suggested to me elsewhere that Nationwide cooked their books to reach a 0.5% fall in February. Were it not for downwards revisions to previous months, the February fall would have been twice as bad:

January report

Nov 367.9

Dec 366.4

Jan 365.9

February report

Nov 367.6

Dec 365.9

Jan 365.0

Feb 363.3

We've seen this kind of thing before from the VIs - using every trick available to massage their figures, short of simply inventing them out of thin air.

Hi Doccyboy

I have no knowledge of the above but interestingly I see the index figure being quoted.

When I compile graphs I never use the index figures only the historical average nominal quarterly figures (i.e. real average prices).

Obviously, the data is only as good as the source, but as you know yourself in NI you don't have many choices when it comes to data.

edit - funnily enough, I remember their being some discrepancy between what the nominal quarterly figures were 'saying' and what the price index was 'saying' for the last batch of quarterly figures (NI).

I suppose at the end of the day there is no substitute for 'being on the ground' and keeping a keen eye on prices in your chosen target area / property type.

2nd edit - I don't think Natwide are as VI as some other banks, I bank with them and they are strict on mortgage LTVs and income ratios.

Edited by prophet-profit

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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