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The Masked Tulip

Dow's Up

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That's it really. Go to Google News and type in various share related terms and you will find lots of news articles saying the crisis is over, the markets are on the rise again, there will still be honey for tea.

Move along, nothing here to see.

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That's it really. Go to Google News and type in various share related terms and you will find lots of news articles saying the crisis is over, the markets are on the rise again, there will still be honey for tea.

Move along, nothing here to see.

It has been a mesterful performance of manipulation and rule breaking the only incredible thing is it has not risen more!

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Financial Planner was bullish on big short term gains on the markets (Dow and FTSE). Apparently on the back off support for the Banks underwriters.

And when exactly did he tell you this? Did he have you round for tea over the weekend? Why weren't the rest of us told about it? Did you have the cream doughnut or the custard tart?

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Financial Planner was bullish on big short term gains on the markets (Dow and FTSE). Apparently on the back off support for the Banks underwriters.

Who said short term? The Dow is going to 15000. Don't know about underwriters - certainly the banks will lead this mrket up.

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It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the dow carried on going up. With the now rampant inflation it could hardly do anything else. I look forward to seeing gold at $10000 and ounce ...

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Who said short term? The Dow is going to 15000. Don't know about underwriters - certainly the banks will lead this mrket up.

I still can't get my head around your assertion that the banks (US in this case) are going to march up?

Is all the bad news out? I thought current wisdom had them concealing billions of write offs?

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Yes FP, explain yourself? How dare you pop in here and start announcing positive financial news?

Joking aside, do you think inflation is going to drive up profits hence driving up shares in the Dow and, I presume, also the FTSE? Like Rover, I thought there was an awful lot of bad news yet to come out?

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Who said short term? The Dow is going to 15000. Don't know about underwriters - certainly the banks will lead this mrket up.

the IB's are struggling to break up, even on the back of the ambac ramp, the move from fridays lows is short cover squeeze, whether this morphs into true buying and recovery is yet to be seen, I suspect there will be further negative news from the ratings agencies soon

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It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the dow carried on going up. With the now rampant inflation it could hardly do anything else. I look forward to seeing gold at $10000 and ounce ...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Some Problems Can't Be Solved

A $2-$3 billion infusion simply cannot fix a gaping long term $70-$150 billion problem (depending on who you believe) in the monolines. Should an attempt to do so be made, I confidently predict the banks will have to go back to the well again and again to provide additional capital.

If instead the banks agree to an upfront writeoff of the entire amount of worthless CDOs in return for an equity stake, exactly where are the banks going to come up with the necessary cash? Even if they do manage to pull that off, they will have accomplished nothing but buying a business model that is slowly dying and facing competition from Buffett as well.

"Sometimes there are problems that just can't be solved", and this is likely one of them. Oh sure, the market may rally a bit, especially if Moody's, Fitch, and the S&P keep their collective heads buried in the sand and reaffirm the AAA ratings on a mere $2 billion infusion, but long term the problem cannot go away until the entire package of CDOs guaranteed by the monolines is properly marked to market at a value close to zero.

What's interesting is that Citigroup did not even rally today (It closed down 1.5%), while the S&P 500 closed up 1.25% and Ambac and MBIA closed up 16% and 20% respectively.

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142 points - surf's up!

Ha ha, oil also trading @ near $101 ... good for the oil companies yes ... but for the general economy no ... we are living in cloud cuckoo land ... or is it only me ?

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Well, today we again had it 'bad news = good news'-way :blink: (low consumer confidence, high PPI in the US - a rather ugly combination, not exaxctly putting the Fed in better position to cut rates, which would otherwise explain why stocks taking some relief...). In other words, the market is efficient, which does not necessarily mean rational; it is just that one cannot tell which day it will behave rationally or irrationally. Could as well be that the market is very much fwd looking and not looking into rear mirrors as much of ordinary folk do. Let's be honest - the information we have here on housing, economic data etc etc is public and second hand and it would be foolish to assume that big guns have not priced it already in. Well, whatever the explanation for today, it's got to do with (the stock) MARKET EFFICIENCY even if it is stupidity driving it up.

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Well, today we again had it 'bad news = good news'-way :blink: (low consumer confidence, high PPI in the US - a rather ugly combination, not exaxctly putting the Fed in better position to cut rates, which would otherwise explain why stocks taking some relief...). In other words, the market is efficient, which does not necessarily mean rational; it is just that one cannot tell which day it will behave rationally or irrationally. Could as well be that the market is very much fwd looking and not looking into rear mirrors as much of ordinary folk do. Let's be honest - the information we have here on housing, economic data etc etc is public and second hand and it would be foolish to assume that big guns have not priced it already in. Well, whatever the explanation for today, it's got to do with (the stock) MARKET EFFICIENCY even if it is stupidity driving it up.

I just think that this will turn out to be an even bigger scam than housing has been .... the fundamentals look desperate .... equities are surviving on speculation of further fed cuts and bailouts if they're at all possible, sooner or later this corrupt system will fail, IMHO most likely on the back of a failing $.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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