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Flat Bear

Yoy Negative By End April Now Odds On

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HALIFAX

January price stood at 197,244 a drop below 196,387 or just .5% by end april would see YOY negative

NATIONWIDE

January price stood at 180,473 a drop below 180,314 or just .01% by end april would see YOY negative

So month on month falls will now result in YOY falls.

The credit crunch has finally arrived in the UK and over the next few months credit will start to tighten. Many lenders will be finding it very difficult to refinance and the central banks will be unable to supply these shortfalls. It is understood around 250 Billion is needed to refinance the UK existing mortgage market alone, the ECB regions and US requirements are just astronomical. No credit= No HPI

"Without a recessionary period house prices can not fall significantly". I do believe this to be the case and as we are entering a slow down in the economy, otherwise known as a recessionary period, this will begin the process of real falls in property prices. By the end of 2009 prices will likely be falling significantly.

Signs of a faltering miracal economy

rising real unemployment

net negative migration

cuts in goverment spending

rising taxes

lower disposable incomes

This time I believe it will be "top down" that is the top end of the market taking the lead as higher paid jobs in the financial and associated sectors are hit hard during the latter part of 2008 and thereafter.

I would like to hear views on how this can be avoided although I've already allowed for VIs trying to "fiddle" figures up as there is only so far they can go with this and the downward pressure is just too much.

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I reckon they will 'seasonally adjust' both the new and recent months figures for two/three months and put off the fatefull day

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Interesting. As I STR in August I have teased my OO friends ever since the "your mad" comments when I went to market last April.

I sent them all a text in Novemeber on the day of "that" express headline, biggests HPI drop in 15 years or whatever. The text stated my prediction was YOY negitive within Q2 08.

No one replied! lol. I was with two of them in the Pub Saturday night and both agreed I had been very clever after watching the market for 3-4 years and had caught the Top of the market by completing in August.

I explained the HPC beleif that the UK HPI died on 9/8/07 when the interbank lending switched off. I still think we will get 40% drops over the next 3-4 years but they didn't put it past 15-20% before picking up again.

Anyway, It would be very cool if my YOY negitive came true as they would get further sucked into my HPC Guru mantra.

One even hinted and going STR and buying back cheaper but I told him straight, TO LATE, MISSED THE BOAT not selling in 2007!! HO, ho ho.

M

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
excuse my lack of knowledge but why is there such a big differnece between the nationwide and the halifax prices (nearly 17k) ?

thanks

Because they're all ******ing liars

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I reckon they will 'seasonally adjust' both the new and recent months figures for two/three months and put off the fatefull day

I think they have already done this as far as they can stretch it.

The denial period for the EAs seems to be coming to an end and its now in their interest to get sellers to lower their prices enough to have a chance of finding someone who is able and willing to buy. If they can not do this they will not do any business and will soon find themselves without a business.

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excuse my lack of knowledge but why is there such a big differnece between the nationwide and the halifax prices (nearly 17k) ?

thanks

Simply because nationwide is much more northern england exposed.

When you think about it the diffrence should be greater, it just showed how much the north is even more vastly overpriced than the south, considering the wages diffirential.

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Simply because nationwide is much more northern england exposed.

When you think about it the diffrence should be greater, it just showed how much the north is even more vastly overpriced than the south, considering the wages diffirential.

cheers, is that actually a fact or just an assumption? I always thought that Nationwide was based more in the South and Halifax in the North.

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Guest tenant super
Because they're all ******ing liars

The clues sort of in the names. Halifax stats are historically lower because Yorkshire prices are relatively less than the national average and have somehow retained that northern bias.

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Looking further out this year ..............

Current IG Index quotes against actual published Halifax Index data :

Maturing Month House Price Quote % Price Drop (Dec07)

Dec 07 - Actual 196.72

March - Actual 194.83 -1%

June 2008 181.9 - 184.9 - 6.7%

Sept 08 172.6 - 176.2 -12%

Dec 08 No Quote

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article4404.html

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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