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Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Reports


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https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/publications/ni-house-price-index-statistical-reports

> NI House Price Index detailed statistics Quarter 4 2019

> Contents

> Table 9: NI Average Sale Prices All Properties Q1 2005 - Q4 2019

Look at the figures for mid-2005 to mid-2007. It is just staggering the way house prices doubled in those 2 years. (Prices actually tripled since 2002 IIRC) It took 4 years for prices to half again.

Over 5 years to reach the bottom 2007-Q3 to 2013-Q1.

2007 Q3 - £224,670 to 2013 Q1 - £97,428 That is a fall of 56.6%

Last 7 years -

2013 Q1 - £97,428 to 2019 Q4 - £140,190 That is an increase of nearly 44%

A 30% fall would bring prices back to 2013 levels again.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

NI House Price Chart.jpg

I never bothered looking at the report figures to guesstimate how low we could go. I was thinking 20 to 30% but after listening to a Ken Clarke interview earlier I think it could be much worse. He thinks it will be 3 years plus before we start to get back to normal. Not counting the absolutely monumental debt created as a result if the crisis. He reckons we'll need to support business for years. 

But TR directors that it'll all be OK. Interest rates are low and you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was wondering why the NISRA chart only started in 2005. Then I realised that's when LPS based their calculations for Rateable Values.

You can see in the chart that house prices actually dipped below 2005 levels.

I wonder if we will need to study data going back further than 2005. :unsure: 

Good job we have this thread to look back at. B)

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For those who can't access spread sheets.

From the Nationwide spread sheet - 

   
  N.I.
  £
Q4 1973 7952
Q1 1974 8397
Q2 1974 8459
Q3 1974 8707
Q4 1974 9100
Q1 1975 9307
Q2 1975 9855
Q3 1975 10578
Q4 1975 11530
Q1 1976 12068
Q2 1976 12771
Q3 1976 13474
Q4 1976 13887
Q1 1977 14322
Q2 1977 15066
Q3 1977 15656
Q4 1977 15749
Q1 1978 16659
Q2 1978 17858
Q3 1978 19585
Q4 1978 19792
Q1 1979 20692
Q2 1979 21715
Q3 1979 22677
Q4 1979 23349
Q1 1980 24766
Q2 1980 24787
Q3 1980 24373
Q4 1980 23649
Q1 1981 23370
Q2 1981 23163
Q3 1981 22760
Q4 1981 22636
Q1 1982 23080
Q2 1982 23029
Q3 1982 22605
Q4 1982 22967
Q1 1983 23293
Q2 1983 23755
Q3 1983 24062
Q4 1983 24449
Q1 1984 25008
Q2 1984 25468
Q3 1984 25924
Q4 1984 26500
Q1 1985 27265
Q2 1985 27066
Q3 1985 27899
Q4 1985 27883
Q1 1986 27588
Q2 1986 28528
Q3 1986 28835
Q4 1986 28343
Q1 1987 27677
Q2 1987 29494
Q3 1987 28960
Q4 1987 27538
Q1 1988 27626
Q2 1988 28088
Q3 1988 27279
Q4 1988 28085
Q1 1989 27933
Q2 1989 29093
Q3 1989 28539
Q4 1989 28803
Q1 1990 29985
Q2 1990 29280
Q3 1990 27668
Q4 1990 29674
Q1 1991 30490
Q2 1991 30626
Q3 1991 31669
Q4 1991 30808
Q1 1992 31054
Q2 1992 32284
Q3 1992 33280
Q4 1992 33603
Q1 1993 34574
Q2 1993 36328
Q3 1993 36564
Q4 1993 35837
Q1 1994 37942
Q2 1994 37230
Q3 1994 39858
Q4 1994 38773
Q1 1995 37889
Q2 1995 40789
Q3 1995 40808
Q4 1995 42082
Q1 1996 41610
Q2 1996 45068
Q3 1996 46222
Q4 1996 47321
Q1 1997 48052
Q2 1997 50732
Q3 1997 51962
Q4 1997 52447
Q1 1998 53456
Q2 1998 57005
Q3 1998 54869
Q4 1998 57984
Q1 1999 59179
Q2 1999 60972
Q3 1999 64369
Q4 1999 61946
Q1 2000 65462
Q2 2000 70557
Q3 2000 70056
Q4 2000 71238
Q1 2001 72797
Q2 2001 76376
Q3 2001 76635
Q4 2001 73697
Q1 2002 76074
Q2 2002 82548
Q3 2002 83152
Q4 2002 85289
Q1 2003 86655
Q2 2003 90265
Q3 2003 92999
Q4 2003 94028
Q1 2004 97303
Q2 2004 103238
Q3 2004 107509
Q4 2004 110925
Q1 2005 109949
Q2 2005 117149
Q3 2005 119795
Q4 2005 125585
Q1 2006 129321
Q2 2006 146367
Q3 2006 159859
Q4 2006 181031
Q1 2007 203815
Q2 2007 225447
Q3 2007 227970
Q4 2007 224816
Q1 2008 196892
Q2 2008 183476
Q3 2008 159970
Q4 2008 147833
Q1 2009 138537
Q2 2009 135862
Q3 2009 147204
Q4 2009 137949
Q1 2010 134435
Q2 2010 128846
Q3 2010 130877
Q4 2010 124780
Q1 2011 119913
Q2 2011 123547
Q3 2011 118723
Q4 2011 113614
Q1 2012 109562
Q2 2012 110422
Q3 2012 107719
Q4 2012 104282
Q1 2013 108610
Q2 2013 108116
Q3 2013 108671
Q4 2013 111612
Q1 2014 114495
Q2 2014 117150
Q3 2014 119782
Q4 2014 120685
Q1 2015 121052
Q2 2015 126525
Q3 2015 127562
Q4 2015 128481
Q1 2016 123225
Q2 2016 128562
Q3 2016 130581
Q4 2016 129385
Q1 2017 127921
Q2 2017 133449
Q3 2017 133659
Q4 2017 131989
Q1 2018 137965
Q2 2018 136211
Q3 2018 139374
Q4 2018 139599
Q1 2019 142484
Q2 2019 143343
Q3 2019 144053
Q4 2019 141015
Q1 2020 143438
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Some interesting reference points from the Nationwide data for Northern Ireland -

Q1 2001 - £72,797            - prices would triple from this point, in under 7 years - see Q3 2007

Q2 2004 - £103,238          - prices almost returned to this level

Q1 2005 - £109,949          - rateable values were set this year, prices more than doubled from this level in under 3 years

Q3 2007 - £227,970          - market top

Q4 2012 - £104,282          - prices dropped 54% in just over 5

Q1 2020 - £143,438          - £39,156 increase in 7 years or 37.5%

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13 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I expect that 37.5% will get wiped out now. 

That would require a 27% fall.

Looking at the data/chart above - house prices appeared to stall for a full year in 2007 - with no significant movement. Then in Q1 2008 a £27,924 fall in just 3 months. I have a feeling that's what will happen when the housing market starts moving again. It will "gap down".

Edited by Belfast Boy
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16 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

That would require a 27% fall.

Looking at the data/chart above - house prices appeared stalled for a full year in 2007 - with no significant movement. Then in Q1 2008 a £27,924 fall in just 3 months. I have a feeling that's what will happen when the housing market starts moving again. It will "gap down".

I agree. It will be little to no transactions for 6 months + followed by a steep drop. 

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2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I agree. It will be little to no transactions for 6 months + followed by a steep drop. 

IIRC prices remained high in 2007 even though volumes collapsed. There must have been transactions in the system that still completed at high prices. Before the market ran out of road and fell off a cliff in 2008. If this happens again the Vested Interests will, of course, point to that data and say that the housing market is fine. In an attempt to sucker people to buy. Though I doubt that anyone is going to believe them. This time we are experiencing a sudden economic shock and everyone knows that. So the falls may also be more sudden.

I remember being laughed at in 2007 when I told people the housing market was going to crash. I doubt if anyone would think it was a silly idea this time. The tables have turned. Someone who is saying the market is not going to fall is more likely to be laughed at.

I was expecting to experience schadenfreude. But I'm as worried as anyone. All our lives are going to change a lot.

"If you can keep your head while all around you are losing theirs" Then you don't understand the 5hit we are all in!

People are going to be worried about a lot more than house prices. 

Edited by Belfast Boy
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4 hours ago, fuzzy_bear said:

 

  • 94% of buyers and sellers say their planned home deals look set to continue

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8277587/I-wait-Majority-buyers-vow-crack-moves.html

 

Great example of what I explained above.

In Northern Ireland, the market stalled at the beginning of 2007. Yet prices did not drop initially - despite much lower transaction levels. There must have been a similar group of buyers in NI back then. They are still in deep negative equity 13 years later.

During the biggest crisis in living memory, is it really a good time to buy a house?

Edited by Belfast Boy
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My elderly parents had been wanting to sell their house (thankfully bought at the bottom of the market in 2012) to downsize.

Obviously this has put a stop to all that.

My recommendation to them, and I'd be interested to know what the posters here think, would be to put their house on the market as soon as things return to 'normal' and hope that there's a small burst of pent-up demand and the house sells.

The reason I say this is that I can't see an scenario where, in the say 2 years after the lockdown lifts and the scale of the economic damage is fully realized, that would see Belfast houses rise significantly in price. They'll stay stable or over those two years the message will get out that sentiment has changed and we'll see a drop in price.

My fear is that they won't be able to sell at all (they still seem to want to a significant profit over their 2013 price) and they'll still be there in a few years when their health has declined to a point where they find upkeep of the house to be more of a challenge.

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On 02/05/2020 at 09:58, Belfast Boy said:

I was expecting to experience schadenfreude. But I'm as worried as anyone. All our lives are going to change a lot.

My big concern is really how much of an economy do we have here in NI that isn't in some way reliant on public money?

Public sector jobs, invest NI propping up wages, 'private' sector jobs that are propped up by public sector contracts (and often times Invest NI money as well!)

I don't see how tourist numbers or overseas student numbers will recover for at least a year or two, and surely that'll have a big impact too.

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11 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

My big concern is really how much of an economy do we have here in NI that isn't in some way reliant on public money?

Public sector jobs, invest NI propping up wages, 'private' sector jobs that are propped up by public sector contracts (and often times Invest NI money as well!)

I don't see how tourist numbers or overseas student numbers will recover for at least a year or two, and surely that'll have a big impact too.

Absolutely no one is going to escape this. Private sector, public, education, third sector. Once the furlough money has stopped expect massive redundancies. The government can't bailout everyone, we'll start to see that in July/August  

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

My recommendation to them, and I'd be interested to know what the posters here think, would be to put their house on the market as soon as things return to 'normal' and hope that there's a small burst of pent-up demand and the house sells.

My fear is that they won't be able to sell at all (they still seem to want to a significant profit over their 2013 price) and they'll still be there in a few years when their health has declined to a point where they find upkeep of the house to be more of a challenge.

I think we are going back to 2013 price levels very quickly.

There certainly do seem to be people over in England who are experiencing FOMO and are wanting to complete before banks reduce lending. They don't seem to realise that the housing market will adjust down to what people can afford to pay. However, they did not experience a crash over there like we did here. So I doubt if many potential buyers here will be thinking the same way.

Do you think that your parents understand that it will be a buyers market after the lockdown? Many people are going to lose their jobs and many more will have poor job security. People may even have to take pay cuts. So fewer people can borrow to buy a house. Banks are withdrawing mortgage products because of this.

You mentioned that they are downsizing. So they will need a chain? So I would say they are stuck until the market gets moving again.

The house should be marketed at 10% below current valuations. Be prepared to accept offers 10% below that. If you can attract buyers they may bid it up. However it sounds like your parents want this years price +10%. They are probably going to end up chasing the market down. From your personal point of view, it may be better to not get involved. They won't want to hear what you have to say and it might create ill will between you.

Tricky one.

(I have to be very careful when I try an help my dad. He is very stubborn. Especially, when we are all telling him he's wrong.)

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49 minutes ago, Belfast Boy said:

I think we are going back to 2013 price levels very quickly.

There certainly do seem to be people over in England who are experiencing FOMO and are wanting to complete before banks reduce lending. They don't seem to realise that the housing market will adjust down to what people can afford to pay. However, they did not experience a crash over there like we did here. So I doubt if many potential buyers here will be thinking the same way.

Do you think that your parents understand that it will be a buyers market after the lockdown? Many people are going to lose their jobs and many more will have poor job security. People may even have to take pay cuts. So fewer people can borrow to buy a house. Banks are withdrawing mortgage products because of this.

You mentioned that they are downsizing. So they will need a chain? So I would say they are stuck until the market gets moving again.

The house should be marketed at 10% below current valuations. Be prepared to accept offers 10% below that. If you can attract buyers they may bid it up. However it sounds like your parents want this years price +10%. They are probably going to end up chasing the market down. From your personal point of view, it may be better to not get involved. They won't want to hear what you have to say and it might create ill will between you.

Tricky one.

(I have to be very careful when I try an help my dad. He is very stubborn. Especially, when we are all telling him he's wrong.)

The other unfortunate thing is that there is another house in the street on sale for several months before the lockdown hit that hasn't sold - on at 30% more than the 2013 price.

My advice was exactly as you say - to put their house on at 10% under the other one in the street, but they consider that too much of a drop. What I really wanted to say was "put it on at 20% less and let the buyers bid it up to what it's actually worth" but I knew they'd not got for that.

I'd like prices to become more sensible quickly, but I think lots of folk will just sit on their houses for months/years refusing to sell it 'for less than what it's worth'. I even saw plenty of this before the virus hit; places that had been on the market 3 or 6 months and hadn't sold, but they never think of dropping the price even a bit.

I think ultimately they have no chance of selling and moving for another 2 years at least - gut instinct but I think it'll take that long for people to really accept significant drops in price (if indeed these drops do come along). In the meantime I think that unless a bank repo's your home (not a factor for most old folk who own theirs outright), I think many if not most will be stubborn and say "190K? don't insult me; this was worth 220K 6 months ago, I'm not selling it until I get what it's worth.....".

My folks worked hard all their life and we were poor growing up, but I did the maths the other day and the total debt they had to take on over 3 house moves up the housing ladder to a house that is apparently worth almost a quarter mill now.....was £40K. All the rest was HPI gains and inflation.

 

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3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

My advice was exactly as you say - to put their house on at 10% under the other one in the street, but they consider that too much of a drop.

I think lots of folk will just sit on their houses for months/years refusing to sell it 'for less than what it's worth'.

I think many if not most will be stubborn and say "190K? don't insult me; this was worth 220K 6 months ago, I'm not selling it until I get what it's worth.....".

From what you are saying - realistically, they are never going to sell the house. I would be planning for them to stay in it. 

If they are not even prepared to market at 10% off, to attract interest, then there is no chance they will sell it. 

We have all listened all those arguments before "I'm not going to sell it for lest than it was worth" before a lockdown that caused massive unemployment and the economy to crash.

It is understandable that people want the best possible price. Which is fine in a rising market. Just wait a year or two and prices will rise to meet expectations. It is completely different trying to sell in a falling market. Waiting for last years prices is not going to work. Not if you really want to sell.

The housing market will move on without people who cannot face reality. 

 

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1 hour ago, Belfast Boy said:

From what you are saying - realistically, they are never going to sell the house. I would be planning for them to stay in it. 

If they are not even prepared to market at 10% off, to attract interest, then there is no chance they will sell it. 

We have all listened all those arguments before "I'm not going to sell it for lest than it was worth" before a lockdown that caused massive unemployment and the economy to crash.

It is understandable that people want the best possible price. Which is fine in a rising market. Just wait a year or two and prices will rise to meet expectations. It is completely different trying to sell in a falling market. Waiting for last years prices is not going to work. Not if you really want to sell.

The housing market will move on without people who cannot face reality.

I think there's still a majority of the public who don't think there will be any negative economic effects when the lock-down ends; and the crash has been forgotten to the point where the "houses don't fall in price" idea that was there in 2006 is back again.

I renewed my rent for another year, by summer 2021 I guess we'll have a good idea either way what's gonna happen.

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30 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I think there's still a majority of the public who don't think there will be any negative economic effects when the lock-down ends; and the crash has been forgotten to the point where the "houses don't fall in price" idea that was there in 2006 is back again.

I renewed my rent for another year, by summer 2021 I guess we'll have a good idea either way what's gonna happen.

Perhaps it's the different circles but certainly in my sphere there are very very few people who don't see just how horrific this is going to be. That's a mixture of business owners, law, PR and academia. In fact the only group I've noticed saying it's going to be back to normal quickly are estate agents. 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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  • 434 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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