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Latest Land Reg - Monthly -0.4% Annual +6.7%


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Is it me, or are the numbers in that report REALLY confusing?

Example:

NE = +2.2%

EM = -3.3%

These numbers are seasonally adjusted (I think).

Now if you peruse the % price differences by "County/unitary authority" & "Metropolitan district", there are NONE over +2%, and NONE less than -2.8%.

So how do they get the +2.2% for the NE and -3.3% for the EM. This would imply one area has been SA UP, and another area SA DOWN !! How does that work?!?!

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have sales volumes crashed by 21% year on year? :blink:

biggest collapse in sales volumes below £250k

so the higher value sales , >£300k , having a proportionally bigger impact on the average values...

these higher value sales are hiding price drops lower down in the averages?

[thanks to RB for this, i believe he's been predicting this for a long time...

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It looks promising for a change.

Prices down for once, transactions look on the way down.

Excuse me while I have “a moment”

But this is soooo slow, no wonder we talk about gold, monoliners, credit derivatives, hyperinflation, deflation, the price of bread, dollar dying etc etc.

What is there to say about houses ? They have gone down a tiny bit last month for a change.

I think I should do what real bears do, go into hibernation, wake me up when we are at 50% down.

-_--_--_-

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But this is soooo slow, no wonder we talk about gold, monoliners, credit derivatives, hyperinflation, deflation, the price of bread, dollar dying etc etc.

What is there to say about houses ? They have gone down a tiny bit last month for a change.

I think I should do what real bears do, go into hibernation, wake me up when we are at 50% down.

-_--_--_-

A runaway train as it starts to go down a hill starts slowly but accelerates rapidly. That's what I'm expecting and nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe I'm wrong

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Is it me, or are the numbers in that report REALLY confusing?

...

So how do they get the +2.2% for the NE and -3.3% for the EM. This would imply one area has been SA UP, and another area SA DOWN !! How does that work?!?!

They use a slightly different methodology for the county by county figures

Monthly and annual percentage changes displayed for counties,

unitary authorities, metropolitan district councils and London

boroughs represent rolling four-monthly averages of the price

changes over one month and 12 months respectively. All price

changes represent seasonally adjusted movements. Historical

data published as part of the HPI is revised each month as

missing and new data becomes available.

Knowsley seems to be the only place with -ve YoY (-0.1%)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
biggest collapse in sales volumes below £250k

so the higher value sales , >£300k , having a proportionally bigger impact on the average values...

these higher value sales are hiding price drops lower down in the averages?

[thanks to RB for this, i believe he's been predicting this for a long time...

he has indeed.

hey RB,

you were spot-on. :)

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The BBC have reported on it:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7214777.stm

Makes bearish reading :-)

As does the article list on the right:

LATEST HOUSING NEWS

House costs up as food bills drop

Record mortgage lending in 2007

Average house prices fall further

House price gloom 'recalls 1990s'

House price slowdown continues

Housing stock worth £4 trillion

Mortgage approvals still falling

Bank warns on mortgage defaults

ANALYSIS

2008 house prices - up or down?

Buy-to-let becomes complicated

Buy-to-let bubble deflates

Oh dear. ( :D )

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And interesting (and perhaps relevant), that only properties over 500K show an increase in volume.

I presume that this means that prices are being skewed upwards?

Peter.

yep noted that too, looking at the table you'd swear those with expensive property have been 'playing spoof' with each other and rushing for the exits. Hot potato, when the music stops, tide goes out... can't think of any other analogy I've left out ;)

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Guest The_Oldie
HA HA HA!!! I've just fallen off my chair with laughter!

Yesterday we had -6.8% for London, and you're heralding a measly 0.6 rise in LR figures (which lag by the way) as 'fighting on'!

Brilliant! <_<

With low volumes, it doesn't take many oligarchs buying £20M+ London properties to distort the figures substantially, but in the overall scheme of things, it's small beer.

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With low volumes, it doesn't take many oligarchs buying £20M+ London properties to distort the figures substantially, but in the overall scheme of things, it's small beer.

It's bonus week this week isn't it? It will be interesting to see how poor(?) the bonuses are this year and more importantly, what the bankers splurge their cash on. It used to be porsches and property, but all the evidence I am seeing (SE london) suggests they are all selling their BTL portfolios and in some cases even STR themselves, which, incedentally has pushed rentals up quite a bit in the Greenwich area.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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