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Bba Mortgage Approvals For Dec 07.


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Worse than 2004, please see the attached graph showing all available data back to 97, crash territory is prolonged 25->35k per month (almost there). Approval figures/Equity withdrawl give about 2 months warning on booms/lulls/crashes

BBA_Latest.JPG

post-552-1201171629_thumb.jpg

Edited by moosetea
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bbamortgageapprovalsdecmt4.png

Not my work at all. This has been usefully compiled by a poster at another housing crash site. However, the chart tells a very interesting story. Remember, where approvals point, HP follow (the old law of supply and demand).

The Jan - Feb figures will be crucial to re-affirm what we're seeing unfolding, They'll be better than Dec but not by much I reckon. The issue the meeja will concentrate on is the consumers lack of appetite for more debt, which is bollo5x they can't get it.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data:

"Mortgage lending weakened notably in the second half of 2007 as the credit crunch impacted on banks' ability to lend. At the same time, demand for mortgages also softened in the face of increased borrowing costs and lower disposable income. The combination of these factors is resulting in the marked market slowdown and weakness in house prices we are now seeing."Reports of high street sales over the Christmas period were mixed, but our figures show consumer borrowing to have been muted in December."

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

The demand has now been stoked up to biblical proportions, as can be seen by the vast amount of sub prime leads being generated, the industry is awash with leads atm, problem is you cant do much with it.

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Worse than 2004, please see the attached graph showing all available data back to 97, crash territory is prolonged 25->35k per month (almost there). Approval figures/Equity withdrawl give about 2 months warning on booms/lulls/crashes

Moose, I don't know the dynamics of this but assume that the figures 25 -> 35 are based loosely around the last bust? If this is the case one assumes, be it rightfully or not, that since that time there has been a growth in building of new properties and therefore this figure could be 30 -> 40? Is there a better measure which takes into consideration the dynamics of available property such as a % or total property against approvals?

To explain what I mean

NB - All figures below are unquantified and purely used for illustration purposes.

In 1990 there were 20 million properties and approvals were 30k per month (0.15%)

In 2008 there are 25 million properties and approvals are 41k (0.16%) to reach the "magic" 0.15% approvals need to fall to 37000 which is'nt as low as 25 -> 35k?

Obviously this also doesn't take into consideration rising population, credit availability etc but one assumes that neither does the original 25 -> 35K?

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Moose, I don't know the dynamics of this but assume that the figures 25 -> 35 are based loosely around the last bust? If this is the case one assumes, be it rightfully or not, that since that time there has been a growth in building of new properties and therefore this figure could be 30 -> 40? Is there a better measure which takes into consideration the dynamics of available property such as a % or total property against approvals?

To explain what I mean

NB - All figures below are unquantified and purely used for illustration purposes.

In 1990 there were 20 million properties and approvals were 30k per month (0.15%)

In 2008 there are 25 million properties and approvals are 41k (0.16%) to reach the "magic" 0.15% approvals need to fall to 37000 which is'nt as low as 25 -> 35k?

Obviously this also doesn't take into consideration rising population, credit availability etc but one assumes that neither does the original 25 -> 35K?

I would like to see it expressed as transactions per EA Branch. :lol:

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bbamortgageapprovalsdecmt4.png

Not my work at all. This has been usefully compiled by a poster at another housing crash site. However, the chart tells a very interesting story. Remember, where approvals point, HP follow (the old law of supply and demand).

which site is that?

be careful, you are in danger of overdosing on bear food :P

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which site is that?

********************* ??

be careful, you are in danger of overdosing on bear food :P

Oops! The censor monkeys won't let me say the name of the other site!

Oh well, I'm sure if you google housepricecrash, then you will get an idea!

Edited: Censorship blurb.

Edited by Control Freak
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Moose, I don't know the dynamics of this but assume that the figures 25 -> 35 are based loosely around the last bust? If this is the case one assumes, be it rightfully or not, that since that time there has been a growth in building of new properties and therefore this figure could be 30 -> 40? Is there a better measure which takes into consideration the dynamics of available property such as a % or total property against approvals?

To explain what I mean

NB - All figures below are unquantified and purely used for illustration purposes.

In 1990 there were 20 million properties and approvals were 30k per month (0.15%)

In 2008 there are 25 million properties and approvals are 41k (0.16%) to reach the "magic" 0.15% approvals need to fall to 37000 which is'nt as low as 25 -> 35k?

Obviously this also doesn't take into consideration rising population, credit availability etc but one assumes that neither does the original 25 -> 35K?

Your close ;p buts its slower housing stock goes up by 150->200k per year...

1992 - 23.7 Million

2002 - 25.6 Million

I think my first estimate is about right, we don't have figures from the last crash so it is a personal estimate of what level we need to be in a crash. I think were approaching crash territory, but not quite there (were in slump territory atm)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/Nscl.asp?...=1&Rank=112

BOOTNOTE : were building property at 200k per year, but population doesn't rise as fast as you think ;p We have had more property per head than ever before in our history.

Edited by moosetea
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This is a very significant graph. Number of approvals were down on 2006 levels for EVERY single month.

Since July, approvals are down on 2005 levels.

So the crash actually started at least as far back as January 2007, in terms of approvals. Demand started falling away long before credit got tight.

looking at the longer term graph the peak of mania was in Spring 02, a second peak in Spring 04, third peak Spring 06, and an anomaly peak in in summer 06 (HIPS). The crash started in 02, and things have never been as manic since....

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Aren't the figures lower than 1997 as well, which is when we were just emerging from the last crash?
We could do with Spline to clear this up.

Yes spline would be useful, he doesnt use the BBA figures (but i cant remember his reasons, could be less accurate)

See splines latest data on property transactions (WARNING THE BOE and LR figures are much higher than the BBA figures and they cant be compared)

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/pro...y_transactions/

Edited by moosetea
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Very, very interesting graphs. Looks to me as if things were cooling off through most of last year. The market peaked towards the end of 2006 and since then, although there have been some seasonal peaks the trend is going downwards although the figures do not exactly correlate. The VI's have been trying to spin it in different directions through 2007, but we are on a downward spiral and I think people are beginning to accept it. Anyone see the Late Edition Live on BBC4 last night, when they were discussing the looming recession the term 'house prices only ever go up', and a suggestion people invest in property, were used very sarcastically. There is great evidence everywhere that peoples attitudes are beginning to change. Things are sliding, they may slide slowly, but they may slide for a long long time.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
This is a very significant graph. Number of approvals were down on 2006 levels for EVERY single month.

Since July, approvals are down on 2005 levels.

So the crash actually started at least as far back as January 2007, in terms of approvals. Demand started falling away long before credit got tight.

market top & sentiment changed:

Q1 2007. B):D

ps -well, I haven't posted one for a while.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Very, very interesting graphs. Looks to me as if things were cooling off through most of last year. The market peaked towards the end of 2006 and since then, although there have been some seasonal peaks the trend is going downwards although the figures do not exactly correlate. The VI's have been trying to spin it in different directions through 2007, but we are on a downward spiral and I think people are beginning to accept it. Anyone see the Late Edition Live on BBC4 last night, when they were discussing the looming recession the term 'house prices only ever go up', and a suggestion people invest in property, were used very sarcastically. There is great evidence everywhere that peoples attitudes are beginning to change. Things are sliding, they may slide slowly, but they may slide for a long long time.

actually that's probably also true. Slightly different times for different areas.

Kagiso called it for Q4 2006 btw.

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market top & sentiment changed:

Q1 2007. B):D

ps -well, I haven't posted one for a while.

That and of course FTB's were completely priced out by then, hence the likes of B&B going into a final push on BTL mortgages with TV adverts.

Though would of course be aware that by last summer they were already "pushing string."

Edited by rover2000
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Guest grumpy-old-man
That and of course FTB's were completely priced out by then, hence the likes of B&B going into a final push on BTL mortgages with TV adverts.

Though would of course be aware that by last summer they were already "pushing string."

yep!

ps - why is everyone changing their avatars recently ?

your all getting like bl00dy women, moving the furniture around the rooms every 10 minutes. :D

pps - if your female, I like your avatar & the way you have got the room now. :unsure:

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yep!

ps - why is everyone changing their avatars recently ?

your all getting like bl00dy women, moving the furniture around the rooms every 10 minutes. :D

pps - if your female, I like your avatar & the way you have got the room now. :unsure:

Oi! I'm not female. My moobs ain't that big! :lol:

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I'm sure the Building Societies will have benefited from the Banks troubles so I can see the merit in using the BOE's figures.

I am sure that the BSocs are taking business from the banks, they seem to be offering the cheapest mortagages at the moment, and they are not short of cash post NR.

But this in itself is significant, becuase in general the BSocs have always had tighter lending standards than other lenders

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I am sure that the BSocs are taking business from the banks, they seem to be offering the cheapest mortagages at the moment, and they are not short of cash post NR.

But this in itself is significant, becuase in general the BSocs have always had tighter lending standards than other lenders

I read somewhere yesterday that the Building Societies were raking in record amounts of cash from savers at the moment. Reasons cited, were general disliking and mistrust of the non mutuals, following the Northern Crock disaster.

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Would be very interesting to see the number of applications as well as the number of approvals. The quote below suggests that the greater influence on the drop in approvals is that the banks are unable to lend more which suggests that a spring bounce is unlikely.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said of the latest data:

Mortgage lending weakened notably in the second half of 2007 as the credit crunch

impacted on banks’ ability to lend. At the same time, demand for mortgages also softened in

the face of increased borrowing costs and lower disposable income. The combination of

these factors is resulting in the marked market slowdown and weakness in house prices we

are now seeing.

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