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David Blanchflower: The Bank of England gets it wrong yet again

Economic Outlook: For the umpteenth time the Bank is forecasting rapid recovery

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower-the-bank-of-england-gets-it-wrong-yet-again-7220876.html

The Bank of England is packed full of economists paid out of the public purse, and the public is entitled to value for its money and it hasn't had it. To this point, there has been no official inquiry into why their overly optimistic forecasts on growth and inflation have been worse than the proverbial monkey throwing darts at a wall. The MPC's forecasts are aspiring to be hopeless; downward revision of the growth forecast has followed downward revision; upward revision of the inflation forecast has followed upward revision.

Above all, a review is needed because the Bank appears to be repeating the same mistakes that were made in the run-up to the recession, which is hardly surprising given that all the same people remain in charge.

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Northern Ireland has highest rate of vacant shops in UK

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17101432

Northern Ireland continues to have the highest town centre shop vacancy rate in the UK, according to a new survey.

The survey, on behalf of the British Retail Consortium, recorded high street footfall and shop occupancy.

The survey reported that 14% of shops in Northern Ireland's high streets and shopping centres are empty, compared to the UK average of 11%.

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Chickenfeed.

£1 billion each year on sectarian segregation, peace walls, parades etc and no one gives a F***.

In fact, we think we are normal now.

Perhaps the sectarian segregation, peace walls etc (if not the parades) are what allow us some semblance of "normal"? I can think of a few people I'd like kept away from me.

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A rare case of bang-to-rights with brown envelopes. The confiscation hearing could be interesting given Mr McGeown's substanial property holdings.

http://www.sfo.gov.uk/press-room/latest-press-releases/press-releases-2012/guilty-pleas-in-16-million-corruption-trial.aspx

£16m fraudster William Ronald Marks used sister's account

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17114096

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What the new lending crackdown means for UK house prices

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/what-the-new-lending-crackdown-means-for-uk-house-prices-20800

The property sections are outraged.

Banks have decided that they’re going to be more careful about writing interest-only loans (where you only pay the interest on your loan, then pay the capital in one go at the end of the period).

In the good old days before the bust, you could get an interest-only loan with only the vaguest notion of how you’d repay the capital. You’d mutter something along the lines of, “house prices never fall – the government won’t let them”, and the computer would cheerfully say ‘yes’.

Now the answer is a resounding ‘no.’ Santander for example, won’t lend interest-only on anything above a 50% loan-to-value. In other words, you need to own half the house already before the bank will even think about interest-only.

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Tax inspectors to target motors, markets and clothes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17125368

Tax inspectors will target the motor trade, market stallholders and clothing sellers as they extend their campaign against tax dodgers.

Special units from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) are highlighting the sectors where the authority thinks there is evidence of tax evasion.

HMRC said that it expected to collect £50m in unpaid tax owing to the work of existing units.

These have put restaurants and scrap metal firms under the microscope.

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Oil price at record £78 per barrel

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/oil-price-record-78-barrel

THE PRICE of oil hit an all-time high in sterling yesterday, paving the way for record petrol costs at the pumps in the coming weeks.

Luke Bosdet, spokesperson for the AA, said: “[The spike] will feed through to petrol prices, and it will completely strangle demand. We are going through an exact mirror of where we were last year, with tension in the Middle East creating fears over oil supply, and then market speculators intervening to push the price further.”

The wholesale price of oil will filter down to the pumps in as little as 10 days, Bosdet added.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/default.stm

Edited by Shotoflight

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Weak growth is the 'new normal', Andrew Sentance warns

Britain better get used to weak growth and a bumpy recovery as that is the best the economy can expect over the next four to five years, a former Bank of England rate-setter has warned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9101965/Weak-growth-is-the-new-normal-Andrew-Sentance-warns.html

High energy prices for households will hold back the economy, he said, as consumer spending accounts for almost half of national output.

In a separate speech, Andy Haldane, the Bank's executive director for financial stability, echoed the concerns.

"We are not yet remotely in a position where balance sheets have been fully repaired," Mr Haldane said. Households and business were therefore likely to keep saving and continue to act as a drag on the economy, he added.

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Have you got the feelgood factor?

The reality is......................

Robinson targets 'negative media' for 'talking Northern Ireland down'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17151871

The first minister said he accepted the media's right to report bad economic news, but argued that they had a responsibility to give the full picture.

"Too often the media are the purveyors of doom and gloom. In turn, despondency became a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.

The first minister set out a series of positive stories from Northern Ireland.

He said:

Northern Ireland's unemployment rate is the lowest of any country in the United Kingdom.

Northern Ireland consistently out performs other UK regions in national exams at age 16 & 18.

In 2011 at £12.4bn, even with exports to the Republic of Ireland falling, the value of manufactured goods we sold outside Northern Ireland recovered to virtually their pre-recession level and sales to Great Britain hit a new record.

Belfast has the third highest level of GVA in the United Kingdom, behind only London and Edinburgh.

Research and Development, which is crucial to the development of our economy, increased by 6% last year to £344m.

After London, Belfast is the most attractive city in the UK for Foreign Direct Investment, particularly in technology and financial services.

Belfast is now among the top 10 cities globally for financial technology investments ahead of Dublin, Glasgow, Toronto and even Bangalore!

One he forgot.

AND HOUSE PRICES ARE DROPPING LIKE A BRICK.

for balance

UK economy shrank 0.2% revised data confirms

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17152253

Edited by Shotoflight

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Have you got the feelgood factor?

The reality is......................

Robinson targets 'negative media' for 'talking Northern Ireland down'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17151871

The first minister said he accepted the media's right to report bad economic news, but argued that they had a responsibility to give the full picture.

"Too often the media are the purveyors of doom and gloom. In turn, despondency became a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.

The first minister set out a series of positive stories from Northern Ireland.

He said:

Northern Ireland's unemployment rate is the lowest of any country in the United Kingdom.

Northern Ireland consistently out performs other UK regions in national exams at age 16 & 18.

In 2011 at £12.4bn, even with exports to the Republic of Ireland falling, the value of manufactured goods we sold outside Northern Ireland recovered to virtually their pre-recession level and sales to Great Britain hit a new record.

Belfast has the third highest level of GVA in the United Kingdom, behind only London and Edinburgh.

Research and Development, which is crucial to the development of our economy, increased by 6% last year to £344m.

After London, Belfast is the most attractive city in the UK for Foreign Direct Investment, particularly in technology and financial services.

Belfast is now among the top 10 cities globally for financial technology investments ahead of Dublin, Glasgow, Toronto and even Bangalore!

One he forgot.

AND HOUSE PRICES ARE DROPPING LIKE A BRICK.

for balance

UK economy shrank 0.2% revised data confirms

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17152253

We should all move to Belfast. Sounds like a great place

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Have you got the feelgood factor?

One he forgot.

AND HOUSE PRICES ARE DROPPING LIKE A BRICK.

lol

... not good news for all the 'vested interests'. Only good news for the average person. Even though most of them don't understand it :rolleyes:

2 men a my work were talking about their children and saying how dependant they are on their parents. One man said that it would be along time before his children could move out because house prices and rents are so high (despite 50% drops in house prices). I pointed out that house prices will just have to come down so the next generation can afford to buy them.

I see in other news that the public sector pay freeze is going to continue. What is inflation at now 3-4-5% ? So another year of 3-4-5% pay cuts for the public sector. All this inflation has not been helping the housing market the way it was supposed to i.e. wage inflation. All inflation is doing is squeezing incomes.

Anyone know what the real (inflation adjusted) fall in house prices has been? We know the nominal fall, so far, is around 50%.

The 'real' house price falls must be near 70%? Great news :D

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Talking things up doesn't necessarily clarify things - look at the nonsense EAs spout (Robbo was one, I believe). Most people can see through the pink and fluffy version.

Northern Ireland has:

An £8 billion subvention

Spends £1 Billion on segregation

Highest public sector - sucked at by the construction and housing sectors, consultants and suppliers.

Dearest electricity - monopoly/duopoly

Dearest diesel in Europe

Highest reliance on the car, highest car insurance, poor public transport, high airport tax

Highest bankruptcy in UK

Highest Debt Relief Orders in UK

People die younger and spend longer in ill health

Highest rate of Post traumatic stress disorder in the world

Teenagers have worst teeth in Europe

21% in persistent poverty against 9% GB average

20% of children have "special educational needs"

Has most adults without qualifications

Most economically inactive adults

Lowest wages

Most politicians including double and treble jobbers, of varying competence

So attractive to FDI, INI can't spend its budget. Over generous grants & low wages = transient call centres.

An image problem with peace walls and ongoing levels of violence

Recently overtook cardiff to become second last regional city in UK for GVA

Footballers who don't know who to play for

Rows over emblems, flags, language, signs, poppys, parades from all sides

Fuel laundering

Southern shoppers no longer coming up and spending in droves as they used to

Planning inertia

85,000 empty school desks

Double the negative equity of GB (11.2% v 5.2%) up to 40,000

NAMA

Average house over 6 times single average salary

Stephen Nolan (with a ph)

I'm sure I've missed some. Feel free to add.

Edited by Shotoflight

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Our time Our place 2012 - The cream of our educational system.

Belfast students get St Patrick's expulsion warning

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17142483

Another resident, Rowan Davidson, who has lived in the Holyland for nearly 30 years, told Radio Ulster the problem of anti-social behaviour by students and other young people in the area was not confined to St Patrick's Day. "This goes on at a level that makes it ghastly for residents eight months of the year," he said.

Queen's pro-vice-chancellor Professor Tony Gallagher said he had gone to the Holyland area on St Patrick's Day last year.

He said it was "a dreadful event.. seeing so many young people so drunk all day long".

Nice.

Edited by Shotoflight

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Our time Our place 2012 - The cream of our educational system.

Belfast students get St Patrick's expulsion warning

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17142483

Another resident, Rowan Davidson, who has lived in the Holyland for nearly 30 years, told Radio Ulster the problem of anti-social behaviour by students and other young people in the area was not confined to St Patrick's Day. "This goes on at a level that makes it ghastly for residents eight months of the year," he said.

Queen's pro-vice-chancellor Professor Tony Gallagher said he had gone to the Holyland area on St Patrick's Day last year.

He said it was "a dreadful event.. seeing so many young people so drunk all day long".

Nice.

I was at QUB, and on St Paddy's day drinking started in the Crescent night club from 1-6pm and followed by food and off to the Union for 8pm and a big push through to the wee hours.

Nobody was fighting or rioting though out in the streets - the drink was dirt cheap in those days so nobody drank at home much. The "Cres" had offers like "buy a tin of Budweiser, get 2 free" and 50p pints of Guiness - happy memories :)

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I was at QUB, and on St Paddy's day drinking started in the Crescent night club from 1-6pm and followed by food and off to the Union for 8pm and a big push through to the wee hours.

Nobody was fighting or rioting though out in the streets - the drink was dirt cheap in those days so nobody drank at home much. The "Cres" had offers like "buy a tin of Budweiser, get 2 free" and 50p pints of Guiness - happy memories :)

Shock, Horror - students make loads of noise in the Holy Land area! That's been going on ever since I was at Uni and not just on St Patrick's Day. :lol:

Did all these Holy Land residents move in there 50 years ago or something before it turned into a overwhelmingly 'student' area? It must have been like that since the 70s/80s.

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I had to park in Palestine Street yesterday morning. The street was disgusting. Rubbish all over it. Bins overflowing and open. Bags of rubbish scattered outside the houses. Boarded up houses decorated with graffiti, beer tins and vodka bottles on the street - numerous to let signs! I was a bit worried leaving my car there.

Walking up to Queens two very drunk girls bumped into me and laughed. Saw a black bra and some other pieces of underwear swinging from a tree. It was 9.20am.

Lived in this area 24/25 years ago - we might have occasionally been a bit loud but it was not like this.

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We should all move to Belfast. Sounds like a great place

haha

having lived in glasgow for 2 years , london 2 years , edinburgh 4 years and belfast 3/4 years i actually quite like it and the people i have met !

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Santander's mortgage affordability checks take the cake

Spending on birthdays, religious festivals and magazine subscriptions must be declared under Santander's new mortgage affordability criteria

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/feb/24/santander-mortgage-affordability-checks

Being generous at Christmas and birthdays could seriously hinder your chance of getting a mortgage following a decision by one of Britain's biggest banks to introduce strict affordability checks.

Santander has changed the way it asks would-be borrowers about their outgoings, now requiring them to provide detailed information about their "regular" and "non-regular" expenditure.

While few will be surprised that the bank is inquiring about regular outgoings such as utility bills and transport costs, some may be concerned to learn it is probing into areas such as how much they spend on birthdays.

On its application form for mortgage brokers the lender asks for details of "non-regular expenditure" and suggests this includes spending on magazine subscriptions, holidays, religious festivals and birthdays.

It has warned that people must enter a "realistic" amount in this box, and if they put zero down this "will lead to a decline decision".

"All our lending decisions are based on affordability and take into account the customer's overall financial position, including incomings, outgoings and any dependents, to assess the customer's ability to meet their mortgage payments.

"The changes we are making to our application process for Abbey for Intermediaries will enable us to collect more information upfront about borrowers' monthly expenditure – both regular and non-regular – and make it easier for intermediaries to provide all of this information when submitting cases. There is no change to our lending policy."

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HMRC taskforces target tax-dodging market traders and car salespeople

Revenue & Customs announces 30 taskforces to tackle tax evasion across a variety of business sectors

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/feb/23/hmrc-tax-dodging-market-traders-car-salespeople

Market stall holders, car salespeople and those involved in the rag trade are the latest groups to be targeted in an ongoing crackdown on tax dodging.

HM Revenue & Customs has announced that 30 taskforces to tackle tax evasion will be launched in 2012-13, and revealed it expects to collect more than £50m as a result of 12 taskforces launched in 2011-12.

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HMRC taskforces target tax-dodging market traders and car salespeople

Revenue & Customs announces 30 taskforces to tackle tax evasion across a variety of business sectors

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/feb/23/hmrc-tax-dodging-market-traders-car-salespeople

Market stall holders, car salespeople and those involved in the rag trade are the latest groups to be targeted in an ongoing crackdown on tax dodging.

HM Revenue & Customs has announced that 30 taskforces to tackle tax evasion will be launched in 2012-13, and revealed it expects to collect more than £50m as a result of 12 taskforces launched in 2011-12.

will probably spend £100 million on 30 taskforces to recover £50 million

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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