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My thinking is that if this is a genuine trend, does this mean that the public believe we are at the bottom and therefore no more advantage is to be gained by selling now?

i have had the feeling for a few months that a lot of the houses on for over a year are not really for sale but that the vendor doesn't want to pay the agent for the sign and any advertising , which if i remember correctly is only due if the house sells or you take it off the market .

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I remember a comment from someone a while back pointing out that at the bottom of a crash, the only houses left on the market will be effectively the dregs, the ones 'forced' to sell. Decent houses will simply be taken off by their owners, who decide to sit tight. Are we seeing this happening?

Owner occupiers will take their houses off the market and sit tight.

What we will see in the next 4 years, is how many speculators, buy-to-let investors and second home owners can afford to sit tight.

Alot will depend on just how many people have taken out fraudulent self-certified mortgages, with multiples of their income that are simply unaffordable. How many people have been using Mortgage Equity Withdrawl (MEW) and extending their mortgages to fund a lifestyle they cannot afford, and now has to be paid for?

There may be more decent houses available at the bottom of this cycle than normally would occur - due to the size of the bubble, which was most likely caused by high levels of MEW, speculation and fraud - especially true for Northern Ireland.

Edited by Belfast Boy
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My thinking is that if this is a genuine trend, does this mean that the public believe we are at the bottom and therefore no more advantage is to be gained by selling now?

I think it would be very optimistic to suggest that the public believe we are at the bottom - indeed quite the contrary. What must be remembered is that most home-sellers are also prospective home-buyers. Unless their intention is to downsize or rent they benefit from falling prices just as much as FTBs. Of course their present home will fall in value but so will the one they hope to move to. With consistent percentage price falls across all sectors the cash payment/mortgage needed to upgrade decreases:

e.g.

SEMI = £200,000 DETACHED = £400,000; DIFFERENCE = £200,000

But with a 50% fall -

SEMI = £100,000 DETACHED = £200,000; DIFFERENCE is now only £100,000

Simple really. The public don't believe that there is "no more advantage to be gained by selling now" rather that there isn't enough advantage to buy now.

Sellers strike? Buyers strike? Both. At the bottom? Not hardly - the strike is because prices are still too near the top!

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What must be remembered is that most home-sellers are also prospective home-buyers. Unless their intention is to downsize or rent they benefit from falling prices just as much as FTBs. Of course their present home will fall in value but so will the one they hope to move to.

You would hope that people might be that sensible, but I don't think we'd be in the situation we're in now if they were.

The 'logic' of rising prices=good seemed to brainwash everyone in recent times, no matter if they were moving, or even FTBs. All people saw was their name on a house worth lottery money - their dreams come true with no effort.

Given the tendency of the Northern Irish to be somewhat err....cautious with their money, I can see many being extremely reluctant to give up their virtual riches. In comparison with average semis and the like, there seems to be very little movement in more 'aspirational' detached homes.

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You would hope that people might be that sensible, but I don't think we'd be in the situation we're in now if they were.

The 'logic' of rising prices=good seemed to brainwash everyone in recent times, no matter if they were moving, or even FTBs. All people saw was their name on a house worth lottery money - their dreams come true with no effort.

Given the tendency of the Northern Irish to be somewhat err....cautious with their money, I can see many being extremely reluctant to give up their virtual riches. In comparison with average semis and the like, there seems to be very little movement in more 'aspirational' detached homes.

I agree totally. But the "aspirational" detached homes must fall in price eventually, after all with the obvious fall in value of the "average semis and the like" the cash/mortgage difference required to upgrade makes them increasingly unaffordable. True many will now decide not to sell - perhaps they had hoped to cash-in at the top. But others will have to - divorce, financial difficulties, unemployment etc. As houses are priced at the margin it will be the forced sales that will determine the price of the sector. The greater the loss of their "virtual riches" the longer they will try to hold out - but it won't make any difference by then there won't be anyone left who could afford to buy at their price even if they were daft enough to want to buy into a falling market. Then the real crash involving real people (not just speculators and developers) will begin. I doubt there will be much government help for them!

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I remember a comment from someone a while back pointing out that at the bottom of a crash, the only houses left on the market will be effectively the dregs, the ones 'forced' to sell.

Why would the forced sellers necessarily be selling the worst houses?

Edited by JoeDavola
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Could it be anything to do with charges for putting items on propertynews? I dont know if there is a charge to estate agents. I'm still seeing new houses listed on propertypal and again I dont know if they charge or how much.

shipbuilder: I'm still getting plenty of emails concerning new property on the market from pn.com every day.

Possible causes for the emails drying up are that your search criteria is too specific - try widening/relaxing it a little and see if that changes things for you.

As regards popertypal.com yes you are spot on daywalker - listings on that site are free of charge. You just have to go through an estate agent to get listed that's all.

Edited by paul65
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My emails from PN are also drying up. I have been recording the details of every one for about 1 year now with the same search. Certainly widening the search will increase the emails but I don't think that is the point. It means less houses are being put up for sale. This is not unexpected and I don't draw any great conclusions from it. We have gone over the peak selling season and many are discouraged to sell by EA's who want less supply.

I have notice fewer and fewer new sales over the last year, and mostly re-advertisements with no apparent changes (even though it says 'new properties have come onto the market'), and now to the point I seem to get maybe 1 per week. Although I have to say the database in PN is full of errors. It doesn't seem to get the location from the address, but from another field the EA has to enter. If they don't enter this correctly it doesn't go out on the emails. For instance if you want properties for Belmont, you will only get properties specifically indicated by the EA as Belmont in this location field, even though the address says 'Belmont'. Obviously there are much better ways of doing this to encourage more accurate distribution. I doubt its got any worse or better lately, just ranting really.

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  • 1 year later...

i think a lot of this is to do with the costs involved in propertynews . i would love to know how the (free) propertypal website has increased in size in this time

I have actually noticed a lot of bt9 supply come on this week , mad pricing but still some sensible pricing.

also the development i live in has seen 2 of the 3 properties for sale (out of a total of 10) drop their prices this week . (lovely development which ticks every box for me but both asking 350k on 200k RV properties)

Edited by getdoon_weebobby
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I've also had alot more email flow from PN recently. I guess its sellers anticipating the spring bounce.

Agreed prices are all over the place, typical 1.2x DCV but occasionally 1.7x, quite alot of long termers reducing down but just getting closer to the 1.2xDCV mark, classic chasing the market down.

Edited by Ride_on
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  • 4 weeks later...

Was this prompted by the recent dramatic rise in the estimated number of listings on PP reported by Irish House Hunter.

I thought it could be very significant if it's not a statistical error. There has been a steady upward trend for months now but this move seemed to be a very big deviation from trend. Is it a rush to the exits before the austerity measures begin to have a detrimental impact on the ability of people to service high debt costs or is there another more innocent explanation?

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I may be wrong but my gut instinct is that there will be a lot of houses coming on in the next few months. There will be amateur BTlers who have now given up on the capital gains and if mortgage interest rates start to rise then there will be no appetite for subsidising renters. I'm seeing some more repos coming on - not a lot but they are coming on at more reasonable prices.

I just wanted to keep a record over the summer to see if my instincts were right.

Yes, I also thought that the autumn could bring about a step change in housing market activity and prices but hadn't thought we would see such a significant rise in sellers just yet, if that's what is actually happening.

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25,744 for sale only

30,558 all status

Posted 03 February 2010 - 08:59 PM

Hi DB I remember posting this on the old NI thread recently. Doesn't looki like there's been an awful lot of change recently

snapback.pngdoccyboy, on 03 February 2010 - 07:39 PM, said:

I found the old thread Headmelter

http://www.housepric...ic=65479&st=270

Cheers Doccyboy..

3-07-08 - 28,200

3-02-10 - 30,739

(up 2,539 since July 08 and 180 in less than a week)

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  • 1 month later...

Loads of new houses and apartments added today for Saintfield MIll and Six Mile water mill pages and pages of them.

Number for sale was noted on Wednesday at 27996 total today 28193 an extra 197 properties in 2 days.

At, I believe £25 per regesteration,£5k in 2 days for doing nothing. Not bad business.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 year later...

property for sale 27446

total property 31857

How long would it take to sell 27746 houses at the current rate of sales - say, for example those sales reported to UUJ by EA's on a quarterly basis. Then take into account the worsening economic environment. Quite a while, I would think.

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