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It'll happen slowly. Measure this thing in 6-monthly sections. House prices will be lower in 6 months for all the many reasons set out in this site.

But for a 'crash' of 20%+ wait 12-24 months. Any quicker and we really looking at an uber-meltdown in the mould of Bruno.

But I would call 20% decline in this time a 'crash' wouldn't you? A £200K house for £160K would be fine. And more to come in the 12-24 months after that.

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Remember that prices are about static in London, compared to a year ago. That's about a 4% fall taking into account wage inflation. 3 years of that and houses are a lot more affordable

The nicer areas seem to be static at the moment, but other properties dont seem to be selling. Just checked rightmove and found some houses now have a 'Guide Price' with some even saying 'Make Us an Offer!'

This has been for up sale for some time:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/4042604

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I need some reassurance. Is the HPC going to happen? The general media condenses seems to be that everything is on an even keel now and that it is all over.

Read the Sell to Rent post on here - sounds like a real story from a real person and it backs up what a lot of people are actuallyexperiencing. Everything you see in the media must be taken with a large pinch of salt - they are all in bed with the VIs.

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I need some reassurance. Is the HPC going to happen? The general media condenses seems to be that everything is on an even keel now and that it is all over.

Not scientific but I have noticed a lot more sold signs in the last few weeks. Some properties I see on my travels that have been stuck for months seem to be shifting. Of course I don't know what price they have achieved or if there are even more properties comming on the market than are selling. I just feel there has been a bit of a spurt in buying lately.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.j.../17/prosy17.xml

The media (vested interests) were wrong last time. They're "wrong" now.

this is a fantastic article. a must read. The very last paragraph reads:

"But the sign I will really be looking out for is a drop in mortgage lending. At that point the market will be in trouble."

Isn't that were we are at right now ? drop in mortgage lending ?

:blink:

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A 5 bedroom house in my locality was advertised for 750k in Nov/Dec. A sold sign went up in January but I have now noticed it has reverted to a for sale sign. If the asking price is achieved, which is highly unlikely IMHO, I will be amazed. It was bought a few years back for 510k.

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  • 5 months later...
A 5 bedroom house in my locality was advertised for 750k in Nov/Dec. A sold sign went up in January but I have now noticed it has reverted to a for sale sign. If the asking price is achieved, which is highly unlikely IMHO, I will be amazed.  It was bought a few years back for 510k.

I can't find my original thread but this property is still up for sale. Started at 770k and now down to 735k.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
When the last housing slump began in 1989, most property commentators failed dismally to forecast it. So how can we trust what the 'experts' are predicting now? asks Ross Clark

The short answer is: we can't!

Most got it totally wrong last time and are saying pretty much the same thing this time (for pretty much the same reasons).

Good article zzg113.

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Bear this in mind.

Every Crash in the history of the UK has been the result of rapidly raising the interest rates.

So, ask yourself when the rates are likely to rise and you have the answer.

In addition you cannot have a crash in property, and keep everthing else stable.

When property does crash, as it always does. (The economic Cycle) then I'm afraid your Job, and your livelyhood along with millions of others goes with it.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
When property does crash, as it always does. (The economic Cycle) then I'm afraid your Job, and your livelyhood along with millions of others goes with it.

Indeed, and this is more of a concern to me than buying a house. I've nmanaged for years by renting and could do so for many more if need be.

I'm rather attached to working though (would hate the thought of having to sign on again).

Still, with Gordon Brown in No. 11 I can sleep safe at night.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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