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If so please identify, at some point I want to buy here but the only people I have to discuss it with own their places, so tend to be of a view that it's a special place that will be unaffected by any Hpc

Being one of those places people aspire to live in, no doubt several home owners in the area have taken out huge mortgages to do just that.

Whilst there are some serious earners in the area, they can't all be as recession proof as the Man U boys.

It's not all big houses for the seriously rich either, so the area will not be immune.

Bramhall seemed to have ground to a halt when I last looked, which was the end of September. Not sure if that is indicative, but it's has always seemed to be, as an area, second choice for those that can't afford to be Rooney's neighbour.

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Hi,

Being one of those places people aspire to live in, no doubt several home owners in the area have taken out huge mortgages to do just that.

....

.. and some people are stuggling to pay those massive mortgages. This Wilmslow repossession is a modern 3 bed detached property. Be interesting to see what the neighbours think. Lots of twitching of the net curtains!

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Lot 148

Regards

M21er

Edited: To remove comment on other area.

Edited by M21er
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Of course apart from footballers Wilmslow is seen to be in the Manchester stockbroker belt, so I don't know what effects a financial services crunch might have there, especiialy given the staganation in BTL in Manchester City Centre

Don't know any more about Wilmslow, but I do have some thoughts about Chester.

Chester house prices went into boom pretty much I think because of the local business park. However the major employers on the business park are finance companies dealing with credit cards, major HQ's in fact

http://www.chesterbusinesspark.com/Pages/Occupiers.html

Has a good description of the occupants of the park

It wouldn't surprise me if Chester's prices went rocketing down again as those organisations, especially MBNA, scale back due to the credit crunch

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.. and some people are stuggling to pay those massive mortgages. This Wilmslow repossession is a modern 3 bed detached property. Be interesting to see what the neighbours think. Lots of twitching of the net curtains!

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Lot 148

Regards

M21er

Makes me chuckle that it's "Wilmslow" it's nearer Dean Row/Handforth on the map.

The £250K guide price is what is was bought for in Oct 2003, so at the moment I would have thought they stand a chance of achieving it, still it'll be an interesting one to watch.

It wouldn't be my cup of tea. The A34 (dual carriage way) one side, another busy road on the other, and the noise of Manchester Airport overhead, all that racket through the flimsy new-build walls. Nice!

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...

The £250K guide price is what is was bought for in Oct 2003, so at the moment I would have thought they stand a chance of achieving it, still it'll be an interesting one to watch...

MB,

Well predicted!

I've just checked on the Auction Results

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Results ( Scroll down for 148 )

Sold for £290k

Don't know the area well enough to be able to comment on the price.

Regards

M21er

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I agree totally mitch, £290k is at least £90k more than anyone should have paid for that. It's in Handforth Dean, end of. I used to rent a place there 5 years ago and we'd say it was Wilmslow but never believed it ourselves - very close to one of the roughest council estates in the north west.

I live in actual Wilmslow now, rent a place for far less than an interest only mortgage would be. Alas I feel that this area may largely immune to HPC which sucks, we've got a kid on the way and I would like to live in our own home, but whilst it's so much cheaper to rent and prices aren't going up then I don't feel it's justified.

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I agree totally mitch, £290k is at least £90k more than anyone should have paid for that. It's in Handforth Dean, end of. I used to rent a place there 5 years ago and we'd say it was Wilmslow but never believed it ourselves - very close to one of the roughest council estates in the north west.

I live in actual Wilmslow now, rent a place for far less than an interest only mortgage would be. Alas I feel that this area may largely immune to HPC which sucks, we've got a kid on the way and I would like to live in our own home, but whilst it's so much cheaper to rent and prices aren't going up then I don't feel it's justified.

Hi Papitogrande, I've owned and rented and brought up children in and around that area and know it very well. It appears you know it well too.

As with most areas it is a very mixed bag, with bought for cash footballer/new money new-build "mansions" at the top end and ex council owned semis at the other and everything in between.

To the extent that the vast majority of home prices will be supported by over-geared mortgages they will follow the rest of the country if there is an HPC. They did in 91-95 and they will now. In nominal terms my average 3bed semi fell from around 85k at the peak in '89 to around £65k when we traded up in '96. That was Bramhall.

Having said that the better areas will also tend to be where people want to live and so will imo not fall as far or as fast as the more vulnerable less affluent areas. As an example, Hale and Bowdon for instance has accelerated during the last 10/15 years faster than Bramhall. Everything is relative.

I am renting in these areas and have been for the last 3 years. I see nothing to warrant buying, from a financial view, for a long time yet. My rent is the equivalent of less than 3% of purchase price when you factor in maintenance charges and free water. So until rents have at least doubled or prices have halved or a combination thereof, renting is an absolute no-brainer, kids or no kids.

p.s. that house depicted as you know is on a fairly grim "commuter" estate with no local community within walking distance to speak of. If I were buying when the market looks to be bottoming out I would focus on those areas where you don't rely on a car, and have good local schools within walking distance for you kids to get to school. That estate above would be ghastly for that. This would include: Bramhall, Cheadle Hulme some parts of Macclefield some parts of Knutsford, some parts of central Wilmslow, Hale or Bowdon. If you cannot afford those areas then I would steer clear of South Manchester altogether. Today you could get a much nicer house, in a much better area 10 minutes walk from the centre of Bramhall for instance than that one pictured for £250-300k. I have been watching several excellent houses which have been on the market for over 12 months with only tiny price drops, which I believe are set to fall much further over the next 18 months or so. Keep saving, be patient.

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Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I wondered what your thoughts were on al the development that is/has been going on in Alderley, Prestbury etc. It seems to have been the fashion lately to buy up oldish houses for a million quid or so then knock them down and build a new 6 bed mock-mansion. Personally I think they look awful but they're priced around the £3m mark. IMO these things will tank.

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Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I wondered what your thoughts were on al the development that is/has been going on in Alderley, Prestbury etc. It seems to have been the fashion lately to buy up oldish houses for a million quid or so then knock them down and build a new 6 bed mock-mansion. Personally I think they look awful but they're priced around the £3m mark. IMO these things will tank.

Both Cheadle Hulme and Bramhall are easy for getting into Manchester and onto the M/way network but still have quite good local "centres". Good schools and plenty of family housing and mixed aged communities.

There is still a big development boom in knocking down older but mostly post-war houses in prime residential areas and replacing them with mock mansions yep. I'm familiar with some of the Prestbury develpments, but also Hale/Bowdon. I have been following these very closely in Bowdon in particular (because it is closest to me) for signs of a turn-down but so far no sign of trouble. In fact there have been 4 plots sold, sites boarded up and houses either demolished or in the process of within the last 2 months on just one road. All are 5/6 bed 1950/60s houses on maybe 1/3 acre plots advertised for around 950k/1.50m. All being replaced with 4 storey (inc gym/pool/media room basements etc) "mansions". In the last 2 years these have been selling for £2m/3m. I am going to keep a very close eye on how these are marketed, but expect prices at that level to hold up. When you're playing for say, United or City and getting £100k a week you don't care about price as much as location, and there are maybe a dozen roads in a 20 mile radius where these guys all want to live. All the other swinging d*cks want these areas too. But in the 200/750k market I am confident prices will fall. In fact I've also noticed that the luxury apartment market in these areas is already sticking. Have a look at rightmove and propertsnake for Bowdon/Hale/Wilmslow/Alderley flats in the 350k+ range. There are tons of them, and quite a few have been around for ages some with reductions, some not. I can't see £1m flat conversions in Bowdon hanging onto those prices. I'm amazed they sold in the first place tbh, but then it ain't my money. Here's an example of what I'm talking about:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-153...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-121...=1&tr_t=buy

This has been on the market for over 12 months I think

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-951...=1&tr_t=buy

This one they're trying to sell off-plan. £2million

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-185...=2&tr_t=buy

This one was sold just before xmas and is now rubble. So the asking price was £1.5m just for the 1.3rd acre site basically. If memory serves a well known 60s United striker owned until recently.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-877...=2&tr_t=buy

and so on.....the market for these type of re-developments seems very closed. There are a small number of bentley driving developers who work closely with the agents and a similarly small number of local architects to either re-model or rebuild. Many of these on the best sites are sold, site-cleared, built and back on the market within 9-12 months. It will be interesting to see how thes prices change and whether the availability of finance will affect them, or whether they are able to self-fund and so stay immune. I honestly don't know the answer to that, but we will find out soon enough. Many are being either built to commission (like Rooneys) or the agents have a very good idea of the clients who will eventually buy them.

RK

Edited by Red Kharma
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Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I lived in Cheadle Hulme in the 90s, bought a smart, modest semi for £70k in late 1990 (so probably missed the worst of the crash) and sold in 1998 for £83k. I note the property sold again in 2004 for £180k.

So, from a personal point of view, I probably never quite went into negative equity but at the same time prices took an awful long time to recover. In fact, properties used to linger on the market for years.

People think that every other person in these areas is a Man U player but that is simply not the case. The vast majority are just ordinary working people. I would also suggest that, by now, many of the jobs lie in the service/finance industry and will be particularly prone to a downturn.

Regards

Sox

Edited by Bootsox
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ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.

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ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.

I hope you are right sir

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I live in south manchester - all the above observations are true - whether Wilmslow is right for you depends on your reasons for buying - yes its a salubrious white area at the southern extreme of the south manchester conurbation.

what put me off Wilmslow personally were the school league tables - well below those in neighbouring Trafford which regularly features in the national top 10 - if you dont have/plan a family then Wilmslow will probably offer you the lifestyle you are looking for - the most vulnerable housing stock will be the proliferation of identikit new build family homes along the A34 by-pass and peripheral areas - best avoid.

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ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.

Couldn't agree more. Just finished a contract in Knutsford and couldn't believe how stupidly overpriced a whole section of South Manchester had become. I'm now back in London, as that's where the money is to be made (and I'm renting cheaply, of course.)

Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London. And Man U. doesn't have 500,000 players on it's payroll, as some people seem to think.

Most of the stuff I've watched on Rightmove for the last year in the South of Manchester has hardly moved, most of it having being stuck on the market for over a year. This area is in for a large downfall IMHO over the next few years. I'm just gonna keep saving my pennies here in London until those falls bite.

Nomadd

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ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.

I disagree. In an upmarket everything sells at a higher price. In a downmarket there is a 'flight to quality' - people want to live in these areas and their prices hold up better. Witness last time - in London Kensington and Chelsea finished 60% up at its lowest. In that downmarket quality and desirable still sells, the crap does not (or does not unless the price falls enough to make it desirable).

Would you rather have a 4 bed house in Winsford or Bowdon ? Which would you pay more for ?

Genuinely, you believe that the falls will be bigger and that places where people want to live will be more than in places where people are forced to live (because they can't afford the nice places).

Do you aspire to owning a large house in Cheshire or Surrey in a good area perhaps ?

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Couldn't agree more. Just finished a contract in Knutsford and couldn't believe how stupidly overpriced a whole section of South Manchester had become. I'm now back in London, as that's where the money is to be made (and I'm renting cheaply, of course.)

Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London. And Man U. doesn't have 500,000 players on it's payroll, as some people seem to think.

Most of the stuff I've watched on Rightmove for the last year in the South of Manchester has hardly moved, most of it having being stuck on the market for over a year. This area is in for a large downfall IMHO over the next few years. I'm just gonna keep saving my pennies here in London until those falls bite.

Nomadd

I've lived in and around this area for the best part of 50 years.

I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong. The original poster asked specifically about Prestbury/Wilmslow and in particular the effect of a crash on the high-end new-build properties, which is why I included some that I am familiar with. Working in Knutsford for a while and then throwing around comments about "wages in Manchester" and "london" is pointless. "wages in Manchester" have never and will never have much bearing on the prices of high-end houses in Prestbury, Wilmslow, Alderley Edge, Hale and Bowdon. It is like comparing Hackney with Chelsea and Kensington. At the lower end then of course prices are related more directly to the economy. But average house prices of around £210k compare much more favourably to average wages here than they do in London.

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It is like comparing Hackney with Chelsea and Kensington.

Very true. Wilmslow, Hale, Knutsford, Alderbury is not South Manchester it's Cheshire countryside.

South Manchester is Wythenshawe.

I can see why prices are higher in Bowdon and houses will always will be in demand there.

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I've lived in and around this area for the best part of 50 years.

I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong. The original poster asked specifically about Prestbury/Wilmslow and in particular the effect of a crash on the high-end new-build properties, which is why I included some that I am familiar with. Working in Knutsford for a while and then throwing around comments about "wages in Manchester" and "london" is pointless.

Hey, that's great - I've lived around the area on-and-off for just under 45 years. My first job was in Altrincham in 1979. Guess that doesn't make you such an expert after all...

And I'll quote your own words back to you: "I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong."

Your claim that "wages in Manchester" somehow don't relate to "house prices in Manchester" is just plain laughable. Look at the prices those same "protected" properties you keep blabbing about in South Manchester were just 10 years ago: about 50% or less of what they are today. The idea that a doubling or trebling of house prices in South Manchester over the last 10 years or so - and when local wages are totally out of whack - is somehow "sustainable" is just crazy (the sort of talk I'd expect from an E.A., in fact.)

My Bro-in-law has been property developing in the South Manchester/Cheshire area for the last 15 years - and he's moved out of the game in the last year or two as it's become a waste of effort. I'd believe his opinion much more than yours. And the static/falling prices I see on Rightmove, plus the fact that I'm seeing the same properties linger on the market for over a year, adds even more credence to his/my views. Just because you've "lived here for nearly 50 years" doesn't add any weight to your claims.

South Manchester has risen just as sharply - if not more so - than most other areas in the UK. The idea that the local economy is going to support such insane prices is just plain wrong. I've remember spending the last few Xmas holidays with my folks in Manchester, and all the talk was of people snapping up city centre flats as "the BBC is moving here and we'll all be rich"; this Xmas the tone had changed, and those flats are just a fast track to losing money. And "posh areas" like the one's you mention are subject to the same economics - if the work (and money) is elsewhere, that's where the people will be. And that ain't South Manchester.

BTW: You might want to watch the couple from Prestbury on Location, Location a year or so ago - they were staggered by the huge leap in price their old house had undergone in just 3-4 years (more than doubled in price.) To claim that this is sustainable is mad. Because if it was, there wouldn't be so much property "sticking" in all of South Manchester's "posh belt" for the last year or more...

And if you still believe that these areas are immune, try propertysnake. And remember, the big falls of 2008-2010 have yet to kick in, reversing the madness of the last 10 years. Still, even now:

Prestbury:

£850,000 (DOWN 10% from £950,000) Heybridge Lane

£650,000 (DOWN 15% from £765,000) Yew Tree Lane

£725,000 (DOWN 9% from £799,950) Birtles Road

Wilmslow:

£1,600,000 (DOWN 8% from £1,750,000)

£249,950 (DOWN 15% from £294,950) Plot 12 Hawthorne House

£249,950 (DOWN 13% from £289,995) Holly Cottage

Hale:

£995,000 (DOWN 13% from £1,145,000) Warren Drive, Hale Barns

£1,065,000 (DOWN 9% from £1,175,000) Shay Lane

£2,100,000 (DOWN 7% from £2,275,000) Rappax Road, Hale

Oh, and look at the "days on market" for some of this stuff as well!

Like I said, I keep a very close eye on the South Manchester/Cheshire market, as that's where I will *eventually* buy. But for now, I'll stick to making cash in London and just buy once the market has crashed some more: another 5 years until we hit the bottom, IMHO.

Cheers,

Nomadd

EDIT: Typo.

Edited by Nomadd
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and neither are you

your observations that prices have doubled in the last 10 years and that developers are finding it a 'waste of effort' applies anywhere in the uk - the city centre market has collapsed like everywhere else - but grimy deansgate is a long way from the tree lined avenues of north cheshire

south manchester prices started from a higher base and have risen proportionately to other areas of the north west (£300k for a terrace in prestwich dont sound like a bargain to me )

those who have half an acre in wilmslow and prestbury do not earn 'manchester wages' - they have their own businesses or are at the top of their game in medicine, law and finance (london does not have a monopoly on hospitals or law and accoutancy firms)

enjoy your london bedsit (oh and your london wage :) )

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Your claim that "wages in Manchester" somehow don't relate to "house prices in Manchester" is just plain laughable. Look at the prices those same "protected" properties you keep blabbing about in South Manchester were just 10 years ago: about 50% or less of what they are today. The idea that a doubling or trebling of house prices in South Manchester over the last 10 years or so - and when local wages are totally out of whack - is somehow "sustainable" is just crazy (the sort of talk I'd expect from an E.A., in fact.)

EDIT: Typo.

If I had claimed that then I'd agree with you. I didn't. You raised it. I said that prices at the top end in the areas the OP was interested in were not realted to general "wages in manchester". They're not. I didn't say that prices in those areas wouldn't fall or that the rises of the last 10 years were sustainable.

You were saying that prices in Knutsford were crazy and out of proportion to "wages in manchester". I was pointing out that is similar to comapring wages and prices in Hackney to prices in Chelsea and Kensington.

My point was that demand for the prestigious areas will always be greater than for everywhere else, and prices will outperform the market relatively. Just because your brother in law can't make any money developing anymore probably means he's not been making a real return in the first place. He has only been making profits due to the increase in land prices, not due to any particular skill in adding value.

You can go back over 100 years, and you will find that Bowdon, Hale, Wilmslow, Alderley Edge and Prestbury have maintained their demand and appeal. Comparing city centre "executive" new builds with Alderley Edge or Bowdon is just irrelevant. I have already agreed with you that average prices in South Manchester will fall in line with anywhere else, but over time prices in the exclusive areas will outperform. They always have and they always will. Your expert property developer bro in law who can only make money in a rising market with easy cheap finance and has had now had to quit because the market is cooling hasn't persuaded me otherwise. ;)

p.s. you've not included any links to the property snake houses you mention, which would have been helpful but I suspect they are either developers trying to get out or they were over-priced speculative prices "waiting for the market to catch up" which you get everywhere. I agree that you should go work in London and you will find lots of cheap property when you come back in 5 years. Just not in the locations mentioned.

Edited by Red Kharma
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