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Maybe It Is Not As Bad As The Bears Make Out


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Yes, I could go and buy a house on the Blackbird Leys estate tomorrow, so not all property is out of my reach where I live (in Oxford).

However, why on god's earth would I want to go and live in one of the most deprived estates in Europe when for less money I can rent a house that would cost me almost 300K to buy and live in a nice area.

Maybe I'm a snob, I don't want to live among chavs, have to deal with high crime, or all of the other social problems that come with poverty. Or maybe I've worked hard and have made sacrifices to save a large deposit and have actually bothered to do some maths and don't want to risk it all on a house that I don't want to live in just becuse I can "afford" it.

I think you're mixing up 'affordable' and 'sensible'. I'm sure many of us could have "afforded" Enron shares.

I hear Baghdad is very "affordable" at the moment.

A thoughtful response at last to a challenging post which raised some crucial issues. It seems to me that the FTB's on this site should therefore prefix their views with: "We are not priced out of the market, we are priced out of the social group to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire"

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"Listening to the intellectual, the workman is almost invariably conscious of an impassable gulf if not of downright distrust. In order to get hold of him and to compete with non-intellectual leaders, the intellectual is driven to courses entirely unnecessary for the latter who can afford to frown. Having no genuine authority and feeling always in danger of being unceremoniously told to mind his own business, he must flatter, promise and incite, nurse left wings and scowling minorities, sponsor doubtful or submarginal cases, appeal to fringe ends, profess himself ready to obey - in short, behave towards the masses as his predecessors behaved first toward their ecclesiastical superiors, later towards princes and other individual patrons, still later towards  the collective master of bourgeois complexion. Thus, though intellectuals have not created the labour movement, they have yet worked it up into something that differs substantially from what it would be without them."

Are you saying the impoverished intellectual is trying but failing to get the working class to do his dirty work? Unfortunately, I think the stats will show that the working class man has done very well recently (without the angst and headaches that afflict the wronged and under-valued intellectual) by keeping his head down and doing exactly what the political leaders (and their wives) asked them to.

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Nomaad.. I am saying that the social order in the UK may have changed. Maybe you need to (share) buy and live two families to a room for a while :.  :D

I am saying that the social order in the UK may have changed.

I don't agree.

I'd say it was more likely to be *massive* price rises making reasonable properties unaffordable.

6 years ago my Sister bought a reasonable property - yes, a horrible house in a rough area would've been far cheaper and *easily* affordable - but no - she decded to go for a reasonable property in a reasonable area and all for a reasonable price.

She was brought up alongside me and we have much the same expectations - the social order has not changed - the prices of 'reasonable' properties has. Like her 6 years ago, I currently choose not to live in a crap hole, unlike her I don't have the 'luxury' of instead choosing a *reasonable* property in a *reasonable* area for a *reasonable* price. Nor do I have the choice of *easily* affording a crap property in a crap area - I would have to pay above the odds to live in a slum.

Why should I stump up a massive deposit and saddle myself with an enormous mortgage to allow the MEW brigage to live off *my* money?

I can see why you made the point, but IMO it is wholly incorrect.

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A thoughtful response at last to a challenging post which raised some crucial issues. It seems to me that the FTB's on this site should therefore prefix their views with: "We are not priced out of the market, we are priced out of the social group to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire"

And nobody responded at all to my illustration that the majority of FTBs that do not earn way about the average salary, in effect need to have trebled their income in five years to afford current prices.

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Do you have £470k going spare for such a house? Nope, thought not. Do you consider £470k reasonable for a tiny 3 bed semi? Nope, thought not.

End of theory.  :D

Nomadd

No, their theory was that you shouldn't aspire to buy in Southgate if you can't afford to. You should move somewhere else that you can afford. If you want to stay there, then continue renting by all means.

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No, their theory was that you shouldn't aspire to buy in Southgate if you can't afford to.  You should move somewhere else that you can afford.  If you want to stay there, then continue renting by all means.

Er, and all my work is in London. So you'd suggest buying where instead?

And the point I was making - more so as you've raised the issue of Southgate - is that these are just normal houses in very normal places. Yet the prices aren't normal. £470k for a tiny 3 bed semi in a so-so London area is just stupid greed. And that issue has been debated to death on these forums: Doctors, Nurses, Teachers, Police Officers, yada, yada, yada - all the people we want in our community, and none of them can afford a house. That's a mad way to run a society.

And all this bullsh1t talk of a 'new social order' is just more of the same nonsense we've heard so many times before. Look, we have a younger generation of people who are deliberately being punished by an older generation who expect a free ride in their old-age, all on the back of property 'ramping'. That won't wash. Young people aren't that stupid. Hence the current collapse in FTBs, mortgage approvals, etc., etc. This entire thread with it's 'new social order' overtones - based on a massive speculative housing bubble - will be as dead as the property market that supports it shortly, any fool can see that. You don't build a new social order on get rich quick, brainless, lazy, Johnny come lately's who believe they've 'found gold in them thar hills' in the form of property.

And yes, I will continue to rent - as it costs one-third of what it would cost to buy. That's a reflection of how stupid the prices are. Still, all these 'new social order' types can continue to throw their money away to the banks in the form of mortgage payments until they go bankrupt as far as I'm concerned. And they are so blindly stupid they probably will. :D

Nomadd

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Hey, don't blame me!

You did not address their theory (that you should find somewhere cheaper to live if you want to buy) in your previous post. Bull or bear, we need to follow (or at least address) the logic of the opponent's argument otherwise it degenerates into a meaningless bun-fight.

Who says what is normal in Southgate? If renting is such good value, why are you complaining? You think you deserve to own a property? It's a jungle out there.

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Hey, don't blame me! 

You did not address their theory (that you should find somewhere cheaper to live if you want to buy) in your previous post.  Bull or bear, we need to follow (or at least address) the logic of the opponent's argument otherwise it degenerates into a meaningless bun-fight.

Who says what is normal in Southgate?  If renting is such good value, why are you complaining?  You think you deserve to own a property? It's a jungle out there.

I wasn't blaming you.

And I did address the nonsense theory directly, but you chose to ignore it. Buy somewhere else? Er, as I said, this is where my work is; it isn't anywhere else. And as I also said, where should I buy 'cheaply'? You didn't answer that sticky problem either.

So, where is this 'cheap' place where everyone can buy in the UK? Even middle of nowhere locations are stupidly overpriced. And they have no work. And even those places that do, the work is a million miles out of kilter with local property prices. And have you looked a commuting costs? That makes 'living somewhere cheaper' financially unviable. And what sort of life is 4 hours a day on the train? That's the 'logic' I've been posting, none of which you've addressed; you seem more interested in a 'bun-fight'. Don't dismiss a post that you don't like as being of no merit: try and address some of the real issues I raised in it - which were all directly related to the retarded 'logic' of this 'new social order' thread.

Southgate? Normal? Who says?

I do.

And any other reasonable individual.

Again, if you feel different, don't dismiss: explain. You think Southgate is 'abnormal' - enough to justify £470k for a tiny 3 bed semi? That's 15 times local salary. Please explain the 'logic'.

Yes, I do deserve to own property. So does everyone else who works hard. Oh, sorry, that doesn't fit your 'new society'. I'm lucky - I can afford it. But there are millions who can't, and these are well-educated, hard-working individuals that we all rely on. Sorry if they have no place in your 'new society'. You'll soon find out what a problem that is the minute you need one of them and their skills.

So, I await your 'logical' reply: a place in the UK with plentiful work, cheap housing, and a decent enough 'nomal' area where you don't get murdered the minute you step out of the door. Or is murder OK, in your 'new society' where, as you happily state, "it's a jungle out there"?

Nomadd

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Surely FTBers are placing themselves in really serious financial danger if they bought a property now? Supposed snobbery has nothing to do with it, I don't want to end up bankrupt.

Where I live 3 bed council flats are 190K, which is more than 3X me and my wife's salary.

As for previous generations of immigrants buying up property - good for them, but no set of immigrants has been able to buy up property in such large numbers since the 60s/early 70s. It's not a case of folk being lazy these days, there is just greater housing speculation/paranoia.

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Guest The dude
Dont you think that this might explain why some people see greater affordbility than others.. I only refer mainly to London as I dont know much about there rest of the country.

What this also means is that affordability may not be as bad as we think.. Hence sales..

I looked at the lending figures BOE for the last six years.. Current approval figures are similar to what we had in 1999/2000. The only difference this winter is that we have had ~six months under 100K NON-SA and previously it was ~three months of low activity over christmas. I use this as my bell-weather as the Halifax/Nationwide and even Land registry are not really useful in isolation. [i sy that about the land registry as for example 1 detached property sold in SE5 0 sep/dec 2004 that is now enough to spot a trend, zero in the preceeding three motnh (or something similar) ]

I believe that UK property is a rip-off. 110%

I believe that logic and economics [based on the past] dictate that there SHOULD be a major drop.

BUT many people dont believe so and this may be because they dont mind "sluming it".. The economic argument ios on the verge of breaking the sentiment and thus collapsing the housing market. BUT it may continue a bit longer than we think and may not fall as far due to many who think property first and everything else second.

"What this also means is that affordability may not be as bad as we think.. Hence sales.."

You are bloody joking mate...

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.

Remeber when the indians first came to the UK in the 70s they lived "many families to a house". Blacks too (60s).. Now the Indians OWN most of cental West/northish (centered on ealing) and NorthWest London (centered on harrow/wembley).

Interesting point, suprised no one has picked up on this. Read somewhere that 1 in 7 houses in england is owned by asians. they typically rent out their first home and move up property ladder buying witout selling. could have a significant effect on sentiment.

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Guest The dude
A thoughtful response at last to a challenging post which raised some crucial issues. It seems to me that the FTB's on this site should therefore prefix their views with: "We are not priced out of the market, we are priced out of the social group to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire"

No, we are priced out of the market...full stop - get your head out of the sand.

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Calling them middle class wanabees or whatever you like serves little purpose other than to vent ones own frustration perhaps?

Nope.. Just gets the reponses flowing :)

What's important is that we have a reduction in DEMAND. Whether its Cant Buy or Wont Buy is of little importance.

But NOT critical levels yet - mortgage approvals are at 1999/2000 levels.. I am not convinced that that will be enough to stop the market.. These low levels were the same over winter in 1999/2000 as 2004. We need to look behind the headlines...

link

IMHO the next few months will show if we will follow the pattern of other temporary slowdowns or go into crash mode. Feb/Mar are always up.. March hugely so.. Lets see what happens next

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The logic of their argument is simple: "If you want to buy somewhere, go right ahead - but you will probably have to buy in a cheaper area; and if you don't like that, tough".

I did not say I agree with it, but it is the thrust of their argument and emotional/political responses to the effect of "It's not fair!" do you no favours.

You have admitted that you think you deserve to be able to buy in Southgate. That is very interesting, I've never thought that way myself. When I was first buying, I thought Hampstead looked nice. Funnily enough I couldn't afford to buy there. So I bought in Crouch End (or Highgate as the estate agents called it). I didn't bitch and moan about the prices in Hampstead, I bought where I could afford and it was significantly cheaper than renting.

You are carrying on as if you can't afford to live in Southgate, fullstop. This is patently untrue. You can afford to live there, it's just you have to rent. So continue to rent. If prices are so out of whack, you will soon be able to jump at any property that enters your definition of good value.

All I'm really saying is address the argument. Tell the older generations what the implications are of pricing the FTB out of the market. But don't say you deserve to buy in a certain suburb - it's not up to you and makes you sound like a spoiled brat.

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London and the South East are always going to be an issue for FTB. While my view is that prices will fall around 30% over the next 3 years, London is always going to be difficult to buy in to as a FTB.

Yes, it might have been possible easily say 7 years ago, but that was when prices were below the "norm" and now they are above. Prices aren't too likely to drop back 7 years.

I was born in Hammersmith and lived in Essex and Herts most of my life. If Southgate is the bit near Cockfosters with the high street with horrendous parking that takes 15 minutes to drive 400 yards, longer when there's traffic, I just cannot see the desirability. You would have to pay me to live there. I cannot fathom out why anyone aspires to or even tolerates this. If it were one of the cheapest parts of the UK to live in I could understand it.

Cockfosters is OK, I wouldn't live there. Chelsea is OK (no sarcasm intended, it's alright, not wildly exciting), again I wouldn't live there. In value terms these places are absolutely appalling and will always be so.

Leytonstone is cheaper. Or Whitechapel, Walthamstow and so forth.

I went for a job interview in Whitechapel once, got off the tube, walked out into the street and got back on the tube again, rang the agency and explained that I couldn't work there so the interview was pointless. I'm no snob, I live in Blackpool for heavens sake (admittedly a very nice part) but I just won't lower myself to that and look over my shoulder all the time for fear of being mugged while at the same time kicking the street litter out of the way so as not to trip over something.

The one time I did go to Leytonstone my car was broken into, just par for the course in a slum like that but if people insist on living in London and suffering the drop in living standards, crime, traffic, pollution etc. versus what you could have elsewhere in the Country, I just don't understand you.

Before living up North I always had a stereotypical view that it would be "grim" however I wouldn't consider moving back to the London area now at any price. In terms of snobbery of a FTB, any part of London I might consider living in will always be way out of my price range (by a factor of about 10 probably), so I just don't/won't live there. I don't think this is snobbery, just a refusal to live in a borstal. As a World City it will always be poor value.

So far as FTB being priced out: even the headlines show FTB being priced out in 90% of the Country, so it's not a conspiracy or people on this Board "moaning"- To answer the thread title, the facts show it *is* as bad as it is made out to be.

The London effect has rippled out across the Country and FTB just can't buy. Or maybe could buy with significant risk. It isn't worth it. Not at the moment. Maybe after 4 years of stagnation, if it happens, FTB might have to re-evaluate, but all the evidence points to prices going down not stagnating. I just can't see a scenario where properties "normally" take a year or two to sell/chains to move, most EAs go bankrupt, and yet prices hold firm.

You could go for an IO mortgage, but then you're not buying a house, renting from a LL is lower risk and makes more sense.

There is no housing ladder for FTB at present to join. Effectively the FTB buying a one bed flat for 150k is joining what used to be the ladder a few rungs higher up than previously they would have had to albeit with a worse property. With little prospect of equity gain the next step in the ladder is so much further away it ceases to be a ladder but more of a trap.

Eventually half a dozen new rungs of the ladder suddenly appear beneath you as prices fall, but then you're stuck. Can't move up for a long time, can't back out and re-enter (mind you there's always bankruptcy if needed). This is no way for FTB to buy in. Hence they're not, and haven't been for some time now.

I just can't understand the London "thing" and never have been able to. There are plenty of IT jobs in Preston and Manchester not paying a lot less than London, but affording better living standards in the better surrounding areas. Can someone can explain what makes London desirable?

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at the end of the day we all pay equal taxes and therefore deserve the same right to affordable housing in our own country. the same as every other citizen pre 2002.

if not, you may find the have nots keeping lots and not being so keen to contribute to your homeowning cushy society at all. empty your own bins. pump your own water.

if its chav land and a 40k 50hr job or chav land on unemployment benefit - then its benefits and working on the side for all. and ill smash up your front gardens on a regular basis.

if it gets you knowhere to work. people will stop doing it.

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A thoughtful response at last to a challenging post which raised some crucial issues. It seems to me that the FTB's on this site should therefore prefix their views with: "We are not priced out of the market, we are priced out of the social group to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire"

It's possibly a little bit harsh to say: "we are priced out of the social group to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire".

The economic realities are that we are priced out of owning housing to which we have become accustomed and to which we aspire.

If anything it is the people that have streached themselves to buy in this market that have priced themselves out of their social group. None of them can go for dinner, or go on holidays or save for the future, they have gambled everything on their mortgage.

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That has got to be the most disgusting thing I've ever read.

Not so much disgusting as stupid!

If bird flu wiped out 70% of the population statistically speaking then you are more likely to be one of the 70% than than one of the 30%

So it's a bit like saying if we were all dead housing would be a lot cheaper :blink:

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All I'm really saying is address the argument.  Tell the older generations what the implications are of pricing the FTB out of the market.  But don't say you deserve to buy in a certain suburb - it's not up to you and makes you sound like a spoiled brat.

Wow, another quality post from you. And once again, you haven't touched on a single issue I've raised (and that's three times I've asked you now). If you can't read, don't bother to post. Or maybe the 'spoiled brat' in you thinks differently? It certainly seems so from your tone throughout most of this thread.

House prices = crazy. HPC is underway. Younger generations are now voting with their wallets and commonsense and staying clear of property. There is no 'new world order' where the young will forever subsidise the old with a mountain of housing debt. Get real.

Nomadd

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The logic of their argument is simple: "If you want to buy somewhere, go right ahead - but you will probably have to buy in a cheaper area; and if you don't like that, tough".

I did not say I agree with it, but it is the thrust of their argument and emotional/political responses to the effect of "It's not fair!" do you no favours.

You have admitted that you think you deserve to be able to buy in Southgate.  That is very interesting, I've never thought that way myself.  When I was first buying, I thought Hampstead looked nice.  Funnily enough I couldn't afford to buy there.  So I bought in Crouch End (or Highgate as the estate agents called it).  I didn't bitch and moan about the prices in Hampstead, I bought where I could afford and it was significantly cheaper than renting.

You are carrying on as if you can't afford to live in Southgate, fullstop.  This is patently untrue.  You can afford to live there, it's just you have to rent.  So continue to rent.  If prices are so out of whack, you will soon be able to jump at any property that enters your definition of good value.

All I'm really saying is address the argument.  Tell the older generations what the implications are of pricing the FTB out of the market.  But don't say you deserve to buy in a certain suburb - it's not up to you and makes you sound like a spoiled brat.

What is it about this forum that attracts the former school bullies to flame everyone else ? What is it with the names of the 'bulls' like KOTC, dogbox etc that they need to pi*s people off with their acronyms ?

I have 2 friends recently bought their first flat in a basic part of central Scotland. Both work hard, commute a long way to work. Last Friday they had a bill for a car repair (that they NEED to get to work) for £500. They were in tears because they simply cannot afford to pay it owing to the mortgage and student loans. So no car and one now has a 2 hour each way commute. I am older than they are and I know the score; it has not been like this for working people at any time in my working life, from the 80's onwards.

I agreed with them that the rules of living in Britain have changed. But times change and sooner or later those gloating at people struggling now will find themselves in difficulties. My father is a manager for a high street bank and he tells me that he has several customers who hold several BTL properties that are losing money because of unforseen problems. Times really do change and I really hope that those posting on here to dismiss others genuine difficulties get to experience their position sooner rather than later.

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  • 443 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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