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Maybe It Is Not As Bad As The Bears Make Out


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It is often stated by people on this board that the average person is priced out of property in the UK:

That is of course true for many people.

It appears to me that many however are not priced out of propety per-se but rather priced out of property that they consider suitable. In other words it seems like a bunch of middle class brats are holding out for what they think they deserve. They do not like that fact that they cannot buy the type of house their parents own or in the type of neighbourhood that they grew up in. They resent that people who didnt work as hard to educate and better themselves by a quirk of fate might be their neighbours and in all likelyhood have a much lower mortgage on their property (-ies) if any. They resent the fact they they bought into the promise of education (i.e. standard middle/lower middle class aspirations) and were betrayed. Education didnt bring the priviledges/advantages that were "promised on the can"..

Not all.. But many..

This might be the x-factor that explains why some London as affordable and others not.. Why some buyers do not believe that the "bull-run" has come to an end.. They dont see the "lower end" property as being beneath them. Too many immigrants as oft been quoted wrt location/class factors on this board. But alas Hampstead is out of reach.. Remember our sample on this forum is skewed towards people with education, drive, qualifications, intelligence and no property. For those who do not feel like this the situation is infinitely better.

And before I get flamed.. There are some people (someone quoted a wage of 12K p/a on another post today) who cannot buy.. NO WAY!! But in many areas (especially the SE) people can afford to buy at the "lower end" but dont want to. "I grew up in Maida Vale, Camden" etc.. "I dont want to slum it in Hackney"

I am neither Bear or Bull.. I just use this forum to educate myself and try to keep an open mind.

What do you think? Maybe I have cracked it! (or cracked up???? :blink: )

p.s. typo TTRTR in the title

p.p.s. this is not a class rant! just a theory

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You say, these 'middle class brats' are not priced out but just do not want to buy in a shit area. I can't really see the relevance of this it still means little demand as these people would rather rent in a decent area.

Methinks you are clutching at straws!!

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Sure there are crap houses in crap areas that people could still afford to buy, that has always been the case, but nothing changes the fact that houses are over twice long term norms and money in the bank only goes half as far.

If someone has a large amount in savings and a good salary why on earth shouldn't they buy a better than average house? Why is someone who mortgages themselves to the eyeballs to buy a crap house more deserving than someone who's always been careful with their money?

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What a load of shit.

So are you telling me, that after working hard for 8 years and saving nearly £40k as a first time buyer I don't deserve anything more then a flat in a run down part of my area?

Wake up you bunch of clowns.

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Not really, no.

I try to keep an open mind on the market, granted I'm evidentally an FTB and therefore Bearish, but I read the Bulls' posts and don't immediately disregard what they say, some of it is quite interesting and it *does* bug me a little when the uber-Bears jump on only the facts they wish to see.

You can't force the above reasoning on me, any more than I can say anything about what a Bull is thinking.

I'm just not prepared to pay *way* over the odds for something that is simply *not* worth the cash *in my opinion*. It's nothing to do with how I was brought up - I just do not wish to pay £130k for a property that was only worth £40k a short time ago, indeed - the current owners have probably MEWd to buy a silly 4x4 and expecting me to bail them out by paying silly prices. My money stays in my pocket.

If prices never come down then so be it - I'll have to rent indefinitely, I'm not struggling and I save cash each and every month along with paying a healthy sum into a pension plan - not the end of the world for me, but naturally I would like to see a return to sensible prices.

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Hi. I'm Kong of the Dog Balls.

You CAN have a nice flat in a nice part of town at an affordable salary.

You just have to have bought it 7 years ago.

You only have yourselves to blame. You shouldn't have eaten all that food, or got an education. You should have bougt property.

And so that I can become rich, you must suffer more. Suckerz.

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That's right frozen out, even the relatively well off can't expect to buy anything other than a crap house, so that leaves the less well off priced out altogether.

They're just a pair of BTL gloaters.

As per my point to BlueLady the other week or so, it's not about standing on your own two feet anymore, and showing people that you're some male icon, who can live in today soceity without help from his parents.

It's about not getting ******ing ripped off and ending up bloody bankrupt! :angry:

I'll stay at home, with my folks who love having me around and wait - there are many more people like me doing this, and when we jump we will be succesful.

Not hard up in the gutter, or on the edge with people going, nevermind mate you gave it your best shot, just bought at the wrong time.

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It's even worse than that, FrozenOut.

Let's ignore those 3 bedders with garage that KOTC is on about.

Let's take the cheapest dives in Watford.

To buy a basic 1 bed flat in 1999, could cost as little as £45k. So if you were a lazy sod and couldn't bothered be to get a deposit, you could buy that with a whopping wage of 12.6k using a traditional 3.5x multiple.

Now, that flat would be around 130k in today's market. Yes, that's right - prices have TRIPLED here. Let's so the same sum. Oh, look, you now have to be earning more than 37k. Yet you still have the same grotty, cramped hole.

Someone should set up a FTBer site tonight so those worst affected by the house price hell don't have to read this silly stuff about how affordable homes are if you take this or that bit of advice from some armchair BTL drongo.

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Yes, I could go and buy a house on the Blackbird Leys estate tomorrow, so not all property is out of my reach where I live (in Oxford).

However, why on god's earth would I want to go and live in one of the most deprived estates in Europe when for less money I can rent a house that would cost me almost 300K to buy and live in a nice area.

Maybe I'm a snob, I don't want to live among chavs, have to deal with high crime, or all of the other social problems that come with poverty. Or maybe I've worked hard and have made sacrifices to save a large deposit and have actually bothered to do some maths and don't want to risk it all on a house that I don't want to live in just becuse I can "afford" it.

I think you're mixing up 'affordable' and 'sensible'. I'm sure many of us could have "afforded" Enron shares.

I hear Baghdad is very "affordable" at the moment.

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It is often stated by people on this board that the average person is priced out of property in the UK:

That is of course true for many people.

It appears to me that many however are not priced out of propety per-se but rather priced out of property that they consider suitable. In other words it seems like a bunch of middle class brats are holding out for what they think they deserve.  They do not like that fact that they cannot buy the type of house their parents own or in the type of neighbourhood that they grew up in. They resent that people who didnt work as hard to educate and better themselves by a quirk of fate might be their neighbours and in all likelyhood have a much lower mortgage on their property (-ies) if any. They resent the fact they they bought into the promise of education (i.e. standard middle/lower middle class aspirations) and were betrayed. Education didnt bring the priviledges/advantages that were "promised on the can"..

Not all.. But many..

This might be the x-factor that explains why some London as affordable and others not.. Why some buyers do not believe that the "bull-run" has come to an end.. They dont see the "lower end" property as being beneath them. Too many immigrants as oft been quoted wrt location/class factors on this board. But alas Hampstead is out of reach.. Remember our sample on this forum is skewed towards people with education, drive, qualifications, intelligence and no property. For those who do not feel like this the situation is infinitely better.

And before I get flamed.. There are some people (someone quoted a wage of 12K p/a on another post today) who cannot buy.. NO WAY!! But in many areas (especially the SE) people can afford to buy at the "lower end" but dont want to. "I grew up in Maida Vale, Camden" etc.. "I dont want to slum it in Hackney"

I am neither Bear or Bull.. I just use this forum to educate myself and try to keep an open mind.

What do you think? Maybe I have cracked it! (or cracked up???? :blink: )

p.s. typo TTRTR in the title

p.p.s. this is not a class rant! just a theory

Before house prices went stupid I'm sure a lot of "middle class brats" could have afforded a house like their parents lived in, indeed, many of my friends bought about 4 years ago and got nice houses in respectable areas. The fact is that many of my friend’s parents admit that they couldn’t afford to buy the houses they live in now if they didn’t already have a place to trade up from.

I could buy a flat in a really dodgy area but I choose not to as I don’t want to get broken into or have my car vandalised.

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That's right frozen out, even the relatively well off can't expect to buy anything other than a crap house, so that leaves the less well off priced out altogether.

They're just a pair of BTL gloaters.

Simon..

I have been called a socialist, b*tch and elitist on the board.. Now a BTL gloater..

I am not gloating about anything..

These are just questions and this is a discussion forum isnt it..

The reason that this came to mind is that I and you, no doubt, spend hours trying to convince people that a Bear market is here and it falls on deaf ears.. Why? Yes media plays a role. BUT I think that many people (NOT ALL!!!!!!!) on here could buy BUT choose not to, for reasons stated above. Thats is their choice. Good luck to them. Others do not feel the same way about the areas being passed over by some and so think the debt is worth it..

200K for a property in Hampstead/Chelsea would be considered worthy of the toil it would take to pay back the debt. BUT not in hackney!

This is not a judgement.. Just an observation based on the comments that many have made on this board. Again I repeat that is their choice.

While that may not be the case for you, and you may not like the implications of that looking back at many of the posts you cannot deny that this is true.

Sentiment is the key word and this view helps to contribute towards it.

p.s. I dont gloat.. (ok maybe once!). I have argued on this board many times that property ownership is NOT that important..

It may be true that hackney is not "worth" 200K.. Those buying in hackney may well be "off their rockers" BUT it still might explain the difference in opinion.

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It is often stated by people on this board that the average person is priced out of property in the UK:

That is of course true for many people.

It appears to me that many however are not priced out of propety per-se but rather priced out of property that they consider suitable. In other words it seems like a bunch of middle class brats are holding out for what they think they deserve.  They do not like that fact that they cannot buy the type of house their parents own or in the type of neighbourhood that they grew up in. They resent that people who didnt work as hard to educate and better themselves by a quirk of fate might be their neighbours and in all likelyhood have a much lower mortgage on their property (-ies) if any. They resent the fact they they bought into the promise of education (i.e. standard middle/lower middle class aspirations) and were betrayed. Education didnt bring the priviledges/advantages that were "promised on the can"..

Not all.. But many..

This might be the x-factor that explains why some London as affordable and others not.. Why some buyers do not believe that the "bull-run" has come to an end.. They dont see the "lower end" property as being beneath them. Too many immigrants as oft been quoted wrt location/class factors on this board. But alas Hampstead is out of reach.. Remember our sample on this forum is skewed towards people with education, drive, qualifications, intelligence and no property. For those who do not feel like this the situation is infinitely better.

And before I get flamed.. There are some people (someone quoted a wage of 12K p/a on another post today) who cannot buy.. NO WAY!! But in many areas (especially the SE) people can afford to buy at the "lower end" but dont want to. "I grew up in Maida Vale, Camden" etc.. "I dont want to slum it in Hackney"

I am neither Bear or Bull.. I just use this forum to educate myself and try to keep an open mind.

What do you think? Maybe I have cracked it! (or cracked up???? :blink: )

p.s. typo TTRTR in the title

p.p.s. this is not a class rant! just a theory

Wuluf,

Probably a lot of what you say is true. I'd consider myself in the category of -education, drive, qualifications, intelligence and no property, could buy - but wont buy. And whether or not KOTC finds it horrifying that there are people out there like me, the truth is there are.

Why the hell would I pay 200 grand for a house next door to my mate who bought an identical house for 100 grand 3 years ago. Its lunacy to set oneself up with 25 yrs worth of paying off double mortgage payments than the bloke over the fence.

And before I get flamed by KOTC, it's irrelevant what feelings anyone has about the reasons for FTBs sitting out the frenzied buying. Calling them middle class wanabees or whatever you like serves little purpose other than to vent ones own frustration perhaps? What's important is that we have a reduction in DEMAND. Whether its Cant Buy or Wont Buy is of little importance.

Can anyone honestly expect demand for housing to be the same as it was 3 yrs ago when prices were half of what they are now in some areas? And if you do truly believe that, can I have some of what you are smoking please?

Low interest rates started this bubble. Johnny come lately BTLs and panicked FTBs perpetuated it. Now the FTBs have dried up, the Johnny come latelys are starting to get twitchy, and depending on what Economic outlook you research, interests rates are "highly likely to rise substancially more than many expect" Oct2004.

None of us can call the market, but I'd be willing to bet if some of you so called bulls were looking to buy your first property in todays market conditions, you may well find that you too would fall withing the category of "education, drive, qualifications, intelligence and no property, could buy - but wont" !

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Simon..

I  have been called a socialist, b*tch and elitist on the board.. Now a BTL gloater..

I am not gloating about anything..

These are just questions and this is a discussion forum isnt it..

The reason that this came to mind is that I and you, no doubt, spend hours trying to convince people that a Bear market is here and it falls on deaf ears.. Why? Yes media plays a role. BUT I think that many people (NOT ALL!!!!!!!) on here could buy BUT choose not to, for reasons stated above. Thats is their choice. Good luck to them. Others do not feel the same way about the areas being passed over by some and so think the debt is worth it..

200K for a property in Hampstead/Chelsea would be considered worthy of the toil it would take to pay back the debt. BUT not in hackney!

This is not a judgement.. Just an observation based on the comments that many have made on this board. Again I repeat that is their choice.

While that may not be the case for you, and you may not like the implications of that looking back at many of the posts you cannot deny that this is true.

Sentiment is the key word and this view helps to contribute towards it.

p.s. I dont gloat.. (ok maybe once!). I have argued on this board many times that property ownership is NOT that important..

It may be true that hackney is not "worth" 200K.. Those buying in hackney may well be "off their rockers" BUT it still might explain the difference in opinion.

" I'm alright jack "

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Wuluf if I got the wrong impression I apologize, I just skim read your main post and don't know what you've written in the past. The bullish posts on here seem to all be from gloating BTL'ers whose hobby is ridiculing those who are not prepared to commit financial suicide to buy bog standard houses, hence my disregard for them.

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Someone should buy advertising space on a fathers4justice batman outfit.

I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned the potential effects that the bird flu pandemic could cause on house prices.

They are talking about a 70% mortality rate as opposed to a normal 1% rate for common or garden flu pandemics.

And it aint the very young or very old it kills unlike normal flu, its usually the fit under 30's it clobbers.

Roll on pandemic...

That has got to be the most disgusting thing I've ever read.

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Wuluf if I got the wrong impression I apologize, I just skim read your main post and don't know what you've written in the past. The bullish posts on here seem to all be from gloating BTL'ers whose hobby is ridiculing those who are not prepared to commit financial suicide to buy bog standard houses, hence my disregard for them.

Dont you think that this might explain why some people see greater affordbility than others.. I only refer mainly to London as I dont know much about there rest of the country.

What this also means is that affordability may not be as bad as we think.. Hence sales..

I looked at the lending figures BOE for the last six years.. Current approval figures are similar to what we had in 1999/2000. The only difference this winter is that we have had ~six months under 100K NON-SA and previously it was ~three months of low activity over christmas. I use this as my bell-weather as the Halifax/Nationwide and even Land registry are not really useful in isolation. [i sy that about the land registry as for example 1 detached property sold in SE5 0 sep/dec 2004 that is now enough to spot a trend, zero in the preceeding three motnh (or something similar) ]

I believe that UK property is a rip-off. 110%

I believe that logic and economics [based on the past] dictate that there SHOULD be a major drop.

BUT many people dont believe so and this may be because they dont mind "sluming it".. The economic argument ios on the verge of breaking the sentiment and thus collapsing the housing market. BUT it may continue a bit longer than we think and may not fall as far due to many who think property first and everything else second.

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[snip]

I am neither Bear or Bull.. I just use this forum to educate myself and try to keep an open mind.

What do you think? Maybe I have cracked it! (or cracked up???? :blink: )

p.s. typo TTRTR in the title

p.p.s. this is not a class rant! just a theory

OK, seems an honest enough post. So, let's give your theory a try:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-539..._t=buy&chnl=buy

That small 3 bed semi is round the corner from me. I rent *exactly* the same type of house - it's really just two small bedrooms, a tiny kitchen, and a 'box room' as the third bedroom. Gardens front and rear are tiny. And yours for only £470,000.00!!!!!

Er, that's a basic 'home' for a couple with say two small children. Er, how many couples do you know who can afford to raise two kids and pay a £470k mortgage?

Do you have £470k going spare for such a house? Nope, thought not. Do you consider £470k reasonable for a tiny 3 bed semi? Nope, thought not.

End of theory. :D

Nomadd

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Dont you think that this might explain why some people see greater affordbility than others.. I only refer mainly to London as I dont know much about there rest of the country.

What this also means is that affordability may not be as bad as we think.. Hence sales..

I looked at the lending figures BOE for the last six years.. Current approval figures are similar to what we had in 1999/2000. The only difference this winter is that we have had ~six months under 100K NON-SA and previously it was ~three months of low activity over christmas. I use this as my bell-weather as the Halifax/Nationwide and even Land registry are not really useful in isolation. [i sy that about the land registry as for example 1 detached property sold in SE5 0 sep/dec 2004 that is now enough to spot a trend, zero in the preceeding three motnh (or something similar) ]

I believe that UK property is a rip-off. 110%

I believe that logic and economics [based on the past] dictate that there SHOULD be a major drop.

BUT many people dont believe so and this may be because they dont mind "sluming it".. The economic argument ios on the verge of breaking the sentiment and thus collapsing the housing market. BUT it may continue a bit longer than we think and may not fall as far due to many who think property first and everything else second.

You make it sound like the money will never run out?

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You make it sound like the money will never run out?

Of course it will run out.. But the bull run may be longer .. Or stagnation may take place.. While this would not be good for the country on the whole and most FTBs it MIGHT happen. And to be honest that is what the government/BOE want.. We are relying on the fact that they overdo the medicine..

Immigration (brainclamp) does play a role in both wage deflation and housing as many new arrivals do not mind (even with families) living in conditions that we "indigenous" folk could not.

Remeber when the indians first came to the UK in the 70s they lived "many families to a house". Blacks too (60s).. Now the Indians OWN most of cental West/northish (centered on ealing) and NorthWest London (centered on harrow/wembley).

If you keep rushing people in could take up some of the slack. And can be exploited to maintain the market!

My parents were immigrants. I know this to be true!

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