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Jason

Prognosticator 2008

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First, here's the predictions for 2007: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=39692&st=0

Quite a few posters got it spot on within a few %...

Ok, in the usual tradition we have a prognosis of all the HPI indices for the year and we'll see who the closest is at the end of the year.

Note:

The year end will be December, i.e. the Halifax release this report a few days into the next month, so we'll use Decembers data.
For Nationwide and Halifax (and any others), we will use the annual reported data. This is because they now report the yearly figures as the average of the last three months compared with the same three months a year prior. In this case, we will use their reported figures.
Please quote in % to 2 decimal places. Please add a minus sign if negative.

I'll use the main five indices for competition, but feel free to add predictions for the other measures

Please copy below the text, and add in your prediction:

Halifax ------------------------------------

Nationwide ------------------------------

DCLG (Formerly ODPM) ----------------

Land Registry (Quarterly data) ------

Hometrack -------------------------------

:o

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I'll go for -4% across the board.For once the indicies seem to be converging,the Nationwide,Rightmove and Hometrack,the first three to declare,are all showing just under 5% growth for 2007.Looks like with the MPC manipulating the market in the short term(abandoning the 2% target) we are unfortunately in for a slow strangulation until 2012 as opposed to a quick correction.

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I was happily predicting 10-15% falls at least in 2008, but with the recent media headlines ludicrously claiming prices are rising again, I fear the power of the press to repeatedly hoodwink millions of idiots into panic buying houses at inflated prices is a real danger. I cannot remember another time in history when the accumulated ramping of the press has actually deflected an otherwise inevitable correction and has managed to change markets and economic logic.

One can only hope that this time even the power of the media cannot stop the dominoes from collapsing, but I think it could be a danger.

VP

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Guest pioneer31

My prediction for 2008:

VI Spin going into overdrive. - "It's a blip" etc

Unprecedented levels of bleating for rate cuts from the usual suspects.

Rate Cuts

CPI still just over 2% :rolleyes:

More govt blunders

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Guest mattsta1964

My prediction for 2008:

Sterling will DIE

The UK will take the Euro by default and without consultation

Broon will be booted out of office to be replaced by another NuLabour stooge

The people will demand an election. It will be denied

There will be major civil unrest and chaos

The economy will collapse

House prices will fall substantially

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Higher food prices

Higher petrol prices

Higher electricity bills

Higher gas bills

Higher council tax

Higher costs of many raw materials for manufacturers

CPI 2.5%, RPI 5.4% or there abouts by late spring.

Weaker £ - Predict $1.85 and €1.32 by April.

IRs 4.75% by year end and about to rise again!

Turbulence in stock market, but finishes year at similar levels to today.

House prices down much more than leading indicators show, but not expecting spectacular falls until well into 2009.

Edited by Sinking Feeling

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House prices down by 25% except London which will be down 30%. Flat prices down by 50% in all city centres.

looks like daft Boy gave the most accurate forecast on this thread a year ago. where does the time go to ?

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Ahem, thought this was a new thread. Ah well, here's for 2009...

Halifax -18.50%

Nationwide -16.50%

DCLG (Formerly ODPM) -12.50%

Land Registry (Quarterly data) - 12.50%

Hometrack -14.50%

Rightmove + 47.99%

Edited by Crash Gordon

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Halifax -30% no figure published

Nationwide -33%

DCLG (Formerly ODPM) -15%

Land Registry (Quarterly data) -12.50%

Hometrack -13%

Rightmove -85% (Am ssuming this is athe rightmove share price??? :P )

Rightmove house price figures -14%

Edited to raiseNationwide to 33% and say HBOS will stop publishing figures before end of Q2.

Edited by TaxAbuserOfTheWeek

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Guest KingCharles1st
Thanks Jason. :rolleyes: Do I get a prezzie or something ?

No Daft Boy- you get a free "all expenses paid" hillwalking holiday... ;)

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