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Shorting Contrywide (again :) )


Flick
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I keep seeing threads here with people saying they are releasing results in feb & also this week.

On the website http://www.countrywideplc.co.uk/investor_r...ns/advisors.asp

It says results were due 10th jan 2005, but they are not available..

Anyone know whats going on?

Results should be out March 10/11th. CWD hit a new all time high yesterday!

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Shorting is not for beginners. Im living proof!

I did a fair amount of research on the company, but must admit that I was probably swayed by the huge amount of people pretty much calling it a dead cert. I bet £10 a point and my stop loss is at 377.2. So its getting dangerously close! Ill lose £280 if stop out. To be honest I have written the money off already. I clearly dont understand how this sort of thing works, so I should just stick to learning for now.

Im half tempted to just cut my losses at £150. I know there results are out next week, but at this rate, I will have stopped out by then anyway.

:(

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I see PAG is having a nice hard bounce today. Up nearly 5%. Stopped me out anyway but I banked a tidy profit.

Stocks can go either up or down, so in theory it's 50/50. Throw in a bit of technical analysis and sound reasoning and anyone should have an edge.

But still, 90% of people lose their money in the market. Then again, 90% of people will lose all their money betting on a coin. It's a fact of human psychology and is the first barrier to cross in order to make money.

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Been looking into CWD and my thoughts are that this is a very risky play indeed. Potential for big downside but also for more upside. The market has no memory of this stock so it's a free game.

As a short, to me, it looks terrifying. Why not short something that's actually falling? Just a thought.

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I had a £5 down bet on PAG today at 431.80. £11.00 in profit so far but I know it's a bucking bronco and I'll probably get thrown soon :lol:

PAG must be runnning on air by now surely, kept up by scraps of positive news that ought to be discounted by anyone with half a brain. Still that's the market eh BBB?

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Guest muttley

I'm tempted to go short on PSN having read the comments from the MD....recovery in housing market,IRs peaked,solid fundamentals etc....He sounded a bit too desperate to me!! Could have been dogbox talking!

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CWD down over 2% today, must of made a few happy. though still no mention on their site of results?

I'm a complete noob to this if you hadnt guessed.. Do they just announce them when they feel like it, or do they set a date in advance?

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Remember that these are results based on the past, not the future so they may be better than people expect. Also, there will be comment on the future prospects of the company and this is largely down to the optimism of the board. They may feel bullish and predict a strong outlook. Doesn't mean they are right, but it'll have an effect on the price.

To me, it looks like the results will be bad and it'll fall but I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole! My shorts on BB., SDR and DXNS are doing far too well for that. Tights stops on all of course. BB. looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Maybe.

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Barclays has increased there stake to 12.5% (they have been increasing this steadily for a while). There actions might indicate they are stockpiling in preparation for a takeover.

Whilst everything possible is against CWD (director selling, falling profits, cutting the dividend and a 5% placing) this doesn't mean the share must fall. If there competitors all go bust and they survive they would eventuly come out in years to come as a strong company. Recessions in a sector over the long term actually help the bigger companies and countrywide is the largest.

So while a short might be profitable (particulary ex-div) do not assume it is certain.

as always DYOR.

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full results usually don't have the effect that people think they will. This company has already put out 3 profits warnings last year, so its no surprise that investors have just shrugged off a so-so set of results.

A lot of people could be hanging on for the divi next Wednesday.

The shorters are left in a dilemma, now the collapse in price has failed to materialise. Most of them have been sitting on big paper losses for some time, and sooner rather than later will have to cover their positions which could push the price up even further :blink::huh:

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I would also point out that most spreadbet companies adjust your opening price for xdiv. So, shorts do not benefit fom them, even though the price fall may look spectacular. eg. You short at 100p and the next day the xdiv adjustment is 10p. Your opening price is 90p so you don't gain from the event.

Most people don't know that. All I can say is that spreadbetters should watch their wednesday statements to see their true positions for xdiv shares.

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Another newb question if I may,

How long do you have to hold the share defore you qualify for the dividend?

for example, could you buy a share the day before the dividend payout, and recieve it?

Yes. You can buy the share, and if it goes ex-divi the next day you get credited with the divi. However, the shareprice will be usually marked down by the same amount as the divi payout on the day it goes ex-divi.

What BBBear says is correct, the spreadbetting futures price is a function of the underlying shareprice adjusted for divis - you won't benefit or lose from divi payouts. However, the main cost of spreadbetting is that you are paying for gearing, at a rate (currently) of about 7%pa, so if you go long on a bet, be confident that it is on something that will beat this by a comfortable margin. On the other hand, this works if your favour if you are shorting.

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Thanks for the info.

I am beginning to see why igindex gets slated so much on their spreads. I saw biofuels rising strongly this morning (have read a thread on here over the weekend, I decided to watch it this morning) and jumped in for £5 /point. This seemed to start me off at minus £25 ! I didnt really have time to check the spread as it was rising so fast, I just wanted to jump on.

Is this an exceptionally high spread? seems much higher than the spreads for the big companies / ftse etc

Fortunatly it kept rising and I cashed out with about £40 when it stalled.

Seems with IG, you dont just have to be right, you have to be VERY right!

Someone mentioned deal4free needing a £1000 deposit.. is this just for CFD's or for spread betting too?

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