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When Is It Going To Happen?


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<_< Hi it seems when you read the news that things in the housing market are slowing down,but when i bring the subject up in the taxi people say they wont drop the price.I have friends who are selling at the moment there house has been on the market for five months and they still wont drop the price it seems to be the trend.Does there have to be a big change in the economy to start this HPC, i am not that clued up on the last crash only from what you lads say but there isn't the downturn in the economy as what there was last time and most companies seem to be doing ok the taxi trade is ticking along ok at the moment and we are one of the first to feel the effect of a downturn as most of are passengers in central london are office workers they always get a reciept.Oh well its a standoff it seems its going to be a slow process, i thought it would happen alot quicker than this.

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I don't think it'll happen overnight, there's still momentum from the house price rises. It starts to turn nasty if people *have* to sell because they can't afford to keep the house, e.g. a Get-rich-quick BTL buying an overpriced house last year realising he can't get tennants to cover his absurd mortgage repayments and is now desperate to sell as he loses money on it every month. Also, two friends of mine bought houses last year that they can barely afford the mortgages on - this is on fixed-rate for x years mortgages - what will they do when the fixed-rate period runs out? From what I've been able to make out, they won't be able to remortgage if the value of the house goes down.

I suspect that a crash of something like £10k per house in a few weeks is never going to happen, and I also think nothing much will happen for at least six months at the moment. That doesn't mean it's not happening, it just means you have to be patient.

As for companies going downhill, remember how few people were shopping at Christmas, and how that's still apparently happening now, in the traditional post-Christmas sales period. I just bought a sofa bed for a massive discount. It looks to me as if people are getting more cautious as the reports of debt keep coming in. If people don't buy, other people don't get paid or their jobs are at risk - resulting in them being less likely to spend. It turns into a downward spiral. I think it may already be happening.

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Guest prudence

<_<I have friends who are selling at the moment there house has been on the market for five months and they still wont drop the price it seems to be the trend.

Your friends are not selling at the moment. They are trying to sell .... there is a big difference. A vendor can ask what ever price they want but ultimately can only get what someone else is prepared to pay...........

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These things don't happen overnight. It could easily take 6 years or more to fully play out, although I believe the worst of it will be over after perhaps 3-4 years. One good sign that that we are near the bottom is when people start asking "how low can prices go?"

Many people (myself included) probably need to just forget about house prices for a couple of years.

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There is no economic 'jolt' to precipitate a crash.

The market at worst will simply find a new short - term equilibrium, that is to say, prices have come down in most areas since last Spring and in London Im told they have been creepeing down for 24 months.

Prices 12 months ago were at a level that drew great demand. THAT DEMAND HASNT DISSAPEARED. Now that prices have softened it is likley the pent up demand will seek a home.

B2L (often amateurs / newbies) are keen to get a stake. They check there is sufficient rental demand in thier area then buy at what they percieve are lower prices than those asked last Spring.

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I dont think the price of 1 and 2 beds will fall significantly as they are still the most sought after properties - by first time buyers - and (still) by investors.

3 beds - hmmmm - I will reserve judgement on those.

4 beds and above prices are now dropping, one of my neighbours has had to drop his by £25k - and looks like he might actually sell it.

There are an awfull lot of time wasters out there, in particular owners of big properties that are trying to make offers on properties when they haven't sold their own property.

If interest rates rise, properties wont fall any more in price than they have already because nobody will want to sell in the first place., thereby reducing the supply

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B2L (often amateurs / newbies) are keen to get a stake. They check there is sufficient rental demand in thier area then buy at what they percieve are lower prices than those asked last Spring.

Do they!?! I've heard some pretty startling reports about newbie B2L'ers conducting virtualy zero DD.....purchasing a number of off-plan properties in the hope of a flip or 'buy and they will come' mentality.

It's been more a case of "well they've doubled in the last 7 years so if I invest now i'll be made in another 7.....It's me pension innit".....Are you saying these people pile in when there's silly rises AND pile in when there's falls????

I reckon it won't be long before they'll realise they've just invested in the equivilent of the '95 Ostrich (pinstripe farming) scam and drop it like a brick.

Where's that pent up demand for Sunday roast Ostrich now........Doh there's one right there with his head in the sand called dogbollox

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I dont think the price of 1 and 2 beds will fall significantly as they are still the most sought after properties - by first time buyers - and (still) by investors.

I have to disagree. In the last crash, 2 br places suffered badly, as it was not that more expensive to buy a 3 br. Hence, people jumped from a 1 bedroom, skipping 2 br places, and went higher up the ladder. The same problem will happen to studio flats, IMHO. Why buy a studio when a 1 br flat costs around the same price?

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<_<  .I have friends who are selling at the moment there house has been on the market for five months and they still wont drop the price it seems to be the trend.Does there have to be a big change in the economy to start this HPC, i am not that clued up on the last crash only from what you lads say but there isn't the downturn in the economy as what there was last time

At the beginning of the last crash which took quite a few years from peak to trough, employment was at a ten year high.

I know what you mean though when people say they will not budge. It is an emotional attachmnet to last year's prices. They cannot accept it, it hurts badly.

Those suffering from Death, Divorce and Debt will have to shift their properties at whatever price they can get.

Take stock cabman : a flooded housing market, a slump in mortgage approvals and a debt bubble of over a trillion. Not good. It's a waiting game I am afraid. Slowly does it.

The tide has changed, the party is over or the leaves have turned yellow, take your pick here.

Can you wait ?

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If you have MEW'd up to the price you can get for your house or even above it you can't sell.  You have to stay put.

Did anyone seel today's Jobs & Money Guardian? The section where they ask you to write in to solve someone's problem. Today's was (general gist) "I am trying to sell my house but it's been on the market for months with very little interest. I need to sell it quickly but I CAN'T AFFORD TO DROP THE PRICE MUCH. Does anyone have any suggestions or tips on how to offload it asap? email - personal.effects@guardian.co.uk

Mew mew?

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Because interst rates and unemployment are (relatively) low I would say that this time round the HPC will take a long time to play out.

However low inflation will mean that it could take up to 20 years for house prices to recover.

Do you want to be in negative equity for a generation??

Think about it. Prices are currently maxxed out. Property will go down in value. Plenty of new stuff is being built. Therefore after the crash there is little to lift prices back up since demand will remain minimal.

Anyone buying now is an idiot.

They risk poverty.

Not for the next year or two.

But until they retire!

Or until they die!!

Don't imprison yourself in debt you can't pay back!!

YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE.

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Take stock cabman :  a flooded housing market, a slump in mortgage approvals and a debt bubble of over a trillion. Not good. It's a waiting game I am afraid.  Slowly does it.

The tide has changed, the party is over or the leaves have turned yellow, take your pick here.

Can you wait ?

The above is fact - what will happen next remains to be seen

Houses may stagnate for years - waiting for salaries to catch up

However, we have had a few HPC's before in the UK, but if you consider things tend to move a bit faster now (Global markets/technology/finance/informaton etc, etc,) then in the 70's and 80's.

Don't be surprised if this HPC moves a bit faster

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The above is fact - what will happen next remains to be seen

Houses may stagnate for years - waiting for salaries to catch up

However, we have had a few HPC's before in the UK, but if you consider things tend to move a bit faster now (Global markets/technology/finance/informaton etc, etc,) then in the 70's and 80's.

Don't be surprised if this HPC moves a bit faster

Or not. This time Unemployment is low and interest rates are low.

People are similarly pig headed as in previous crashes and won't budge with selling prices etc.

Therefore it might take much longer for the crash to play out.

However because property is so massively overvalued price drops of up to 70% are possible.

However because of the low IR's it might take more than 20 years for property to return to todays values.

Anyone buying today can be stuck in negative equity for a generation.

Don't buy now

YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE

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However because property is so massively overvalued price drops of up to 70% are possible.

YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE

Agreed! Try 90% even in some areas.

The direction is certain and the timing is in question. I think we will have to see how it pans out. My feeling is that it many be quick (6 years) but this would mean a global crash. Some countries have been crashing slowly for years (Germany, Japan). When the Anglo countries start crashing I think it will drag everything down at a quickened pace.

Low unemployment is a result of the massive debt bubble, many jobs in retail and the like. They can quickly disapear.

A snowball on a global scale is how I would describe it. To be sure it will also have an end point.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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