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Accept It - The Force Is Too Great


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The pessmimist latches onto peripheral irrelevancies and exstrapolates that the sky is falling in.

Please, take breath and try to observe things in thier entirity and not confined to a narrow bandwidth that happens to suit your pesimistic bent. Narrow bandwiths are the space American Christian fundamentalists inhabit. Open eyes please

love your racist avator, dogbits.

dont you have one thats more explicit? Maybe one with the black guy tied up and being tortured/

******ing racist scum that you are.

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love your racist avator, dogbits.

dont you have one thats more explicit? Maybe one with the black guy tied up and being tortured/

******ing racist scum that you are.

Sorry but this is an hysterical response. I see 2 guys fighting - what's the big deal? It could be an image from a million Hollywood movies. Would 2 white guys fighting be OK?

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I may well do. I don't want to watch the first 6 months of 2006 happen all over again - while I am out of the market.

Cool. Let us know how much negative equity you end up in. And post a picture of your tiny flat.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
FANCYPANTS - I see you are a fully signed up member to the PC brigade with an overzealous sense of ethics.

My avatar shows 2 KravMaga students demonstrating self defence techniques. As I've been doing KravMaga for about 10 years, I fancied using a related avatar.

THAT OK WITH THE THOUGHT POLICE??

edit: I've been quite unsettled by your intimations actually and as a result I'm going to change the avatar.

Do you know I did not even think about the guys colour - really it did'nt enter my head.

Its this over anxious policing of other people that can lead to a sense of bitterness which might add to racial intollerance actualy, so thanks for making me feel a bit shitty

I like to see the black man get one over on the white man with his superior weapons and physique.

He looks like he might be trying to take that man's watch.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable
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Sorry but this is an hysterical response. I see 2 guys fighting - what's the big deal? It could be an image from a million Hollywood movies. Would 2 white guys fighting be OK?

hysterical response?

It's called 'humor', shitferbrains.

Jeez. the intellectual abilities on this board never get any better, do they.

Maybe dogbits could etch a tiny swastika in the white guy's forehead, to make his leanings unambiguous.

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Cool. Let us know how much negative equity you end up in. And post a picture of your tiny flat.

I'm sorry to disillusion you. I'm at the other end of the market and nearer the end of my life than the beginning. So, as retirement beckons, I won't be too bothered if I make a mistake.

The thing I am bothered about is what sort of future my (and your) children have in this bank infested country.

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So why do it? What tangible political advantage does GOP get, what economic advantage does Goldman Sach get?

I think it buys them time. Everything is done with short term objectives. Which was the point of my original post - 2.5 years away from an election, Gordenron will not let the BOE do anything that will stop the miracle.

If the credit market squeeze means the day returns where people have to queue for mortgages and multiples are reduced etc - great. Can't see it arriving in the next 2.5 years.

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I'm sorry to disillusion you. I'm at the other end of the market and nearer the end of my life than the beginning. So, as retirement beckons, I won't be too bothered if I make a mistake.

The thing I am bothered about is what sort of future my (and your) children have in this bank infested country.

Why worry about just the UK- its a bank infested WORLD

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Just after the BOE cut rates at 12 noon the BBC had loads of emails from savers complaining about the cut. It's about time savers got together and starved the banks of their hard earned by banking with someone like ICICI. I'm not bothered for myself, I have no mortgage and am nearing 65. No debt and money in the bank. But I am worried for my children and their children, something these shortsighted politicians will never do.

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Bloke down the road has no job, no house and a history of CCJs. He can't get credit. I can - easily. Credit is cheap and easy for me but not for him.

Is this too hard to understand. Banks won't lend Northern Rock money. But they will lend me money. Why? Because I am a better risk. It's not tricky. I haven't heard anyone complaining 'I couldn't get a mortgage' yet.

Yes but banks like A&L and B&B are MUCH less exposed than Northern Rock. Northern Rock were in a league of their own. Seen anyone joining them?

I can't be bothered. You quote me one example of a bank or building society that has significantly tightened credit to people that are good risks.

What are you talking about. NR didnt have to fill in an application form to get credit. It picked up the phone and bought money/credit at the wholesale rate, at alot cheaper rate than you will ever get it. The problem was that the wholesale cost of money went up very high.

NR had little to non exposure to sub prime. Its only real exposure was to the wholesale cost of credit. This cost increased to a significant level to put its business model in crises. Which then led to a run on its cash reserves forcing it into deep dodo. Other banks have been hurt alot by the rise in the wholesale cost of credit, but as they had bigger reserves of savings they were able to maintain some liquidity.

These are the historical facts of the NR case. The fact, the objective indisputable fact is that the wholesale cost of credit has increased dramatically over the last few months as evinced by libor.

However much you wave your hand and provide useless meaningless anecdotals about you and some bloke down the road, this dosnt change the objective facts. You provide no evidence or supporting statements or sources to your argument assuming that you can just assert your way to the truth.

As for people being turned down for credit, perhaps you are unaware that mortgage refusals are at there highest for 6 years. Then again you would never let the facts get in the way of your opinion.

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What are you talking about. NR didnt have to fill in an application form to get credit. It picked up the phone and bought money/credit at the wholesale rate, at alot cheaper rate than you will ever get it. The problem was that the wholesale cost of money went up very high.

NR had little to non exposure to sub prime. Its only real exposure was to the wholesale cost of credit. This cost increased to a significant level to put its business model in crises. Which then led to a run on its cash reserves forcing it into deep dodo. Other banks have been hurt alot by the rise in the wholesale cost of credit, but as they had bigger reserves of savings they were able to maintain some liquidity.

These are the historical facts of the NR case. The fact, the objective indisputable fact is that the wholesale cost of credit has increased dramatically over the last few months as evinced by libor.

However much you wave your hand and provide useless meaningless anecdotals about you and some bloke down the road, this dosnt change the objective facts. You provide no evidence or supporting statements or sources to your argument assuming that you can just assert your way to the truth.

As for people being turned down for credit, perhaps you are unaware that mortgage refusals are at there highest for 6 years. Then again you would never let the facts get in the way of your opinion.

Just ignore the little muppet. He is a troll with only one gonad. Anyway, this site seems to thrive on allowing the needlers - like an Alistair Campbell regime, and I am getting so tired of the lack of originality. Watch this site - it will sell itself out to BTLs by the summer, whatever way the wind blows, these guys are in it for the advertising revenue, pure and simple.

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Guest The_Oldie
Watch this site - it will sell itself out to BTLs by the summer, whatever way the wind blows, these guys are in it for the advertising revenue, pure and simple.

Eh, you obviously know something I don't.

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What are you talking about. NR didnt have to fill in an application form to get credit. It picked up the phone and bought money/credit at the wholesale rate, at alot cheaper rate than you will ever get it. The problem was that the wholesale cost of money went up very high.

Not actually true though. Discounted fixed rate deals have been around for a long time at less than money market rates. The problem was not that the wholesale cost of money went up very high - it hasn't. What happened is that banks suddenly decided not to lend to each other because they suddenly realised they hadn't priced in the risk of not getting their money back because of other banks' dodgy lending practices. Nothing to stop banks lending directly to people instead of to other banks. As you say, ought to be more profitable although, of course, the costs are higher.

Nationwide, for example, have taken in a shed load of cash since the NR debacle and are very happy to lend it to people who are not too high risk. What credit crunch?

The fact, the objective indisputable fact is that the wholesale cost of credit has increased dramatically over the last few months as evinced by libor.

What up half a percent? Wow!

As for people being turned down for credit, perhaps you are unaware that mortgage refusals are at there highest for 6 years. Then again you would never let the facts get in the way of your opinion.

I'm going to ignore your snottiness. Maybe you could indulge in a discussion without getting snotty? Mortgage refusals at their highest for 6 years. So what? Has this stopped other people buying houses? The housing market can afford to lose the small percentage of buyers that are high risk. There's plenty of low risk ones around.

You are completely over-reacting to the current situation. People can still get mortgages. There is plenty of credit around. It is not suddenly much more expensive. I am not saying sentiment hasn't changed. It has. Or rather, it had. The interest rate drop today will put paid to a lot of negative sentiment. Already the media is full of good news stories.

As I said originally - face it, you can't win. The force is too strong.

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All the same except we didn't have so many BTLs flooding the exit door, the Credit Crunch, First run on a British Bank for 150 years, USA going into recession, UK unsound economy, Unemployment creeping up, Supply increasing, DEmand waning. I am wondering where are these magical buyers going to come from ???? The majority of FTBs are laden with debt aned BTLs are becoming extinct like dinosaurs.

Sorry its DOOM and GLOOM in 2008. Look back to the last crash regards the interest rate argument e.g 15% to 6% and property still tanked :lol::lol::lol::lol: though until it was more expensive to rent than have a mortgage.

You forgot that most of these so-called new buyers etc are car drivers and what they save on mortgages if any, they will spend on their extra petrol prices and tax!

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Bloke down the road has no job, no house and a history of CCJs. He can't get credit. I can - easily. Credit is cheap and easy for me but not for him.

Is this too hard to understand. Banks won't lend Northern Rock money. But they will lend me money. Why? Because I am a better risk. It's not tricky. I haven't heard anyone complaining 'I couldn't get a mortgage' yet.

Yes but banks like A&L and B&B are MUCH less exposed than Northern Rock. Northern Rock were in a league of their own. Seen anyone joining them?

I can't be bothered. You quote me one example of a bank or building society that has significantly tightened credit to people that are good risks.

HPI wasn't driven by you, it was driven by the likes of him! He won't get credit anymore. Who cares about you? Plus you both have to spend so much more on your petrol expenses/delivery charges/transport etc!

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FANCYPANTS - I see you are a fully signed up member to the PC brigade with an overzealous sense of ethics.

My avatar shows 2 KravMaga students demonstrating self defence techniques. As I've been doing KravMaga for about 10 years, I fancied using a related avatar.

THAT OK WITH THE THOUGHT POLICE??

edit: I've been quite unsettled by your intimations actually and as a result I'm going to change the avatar.

Do you know I did not even think about the guys colour - really it did'nt enter my head.

Its this over anxious policing of other people that can lead to a sense of bitterness which might add to racial intollerance actualy, so thanks for making me feel a bit shitty

Don't worry about people like that Dogbox, they are simply racists who think they are anti racists, except that doesn't exist, just the racist. Amazing how they think these things up and then blame you for their racist thoughts!

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Not actually true though. Discounted fixed rate deals have been around for a long time at less than money market rates. The problem was not that the wholesale cost of money went up very high - it hasn't. What happened is that banks suddenly decided not to lend to each other because they suddenly realised they hadn't priced in the risk of not getting their money back because of other banks' dodgy lending practices. Nothing to stop banks lending directly to people instead of to other banks. As you say, ought to be more profitable although, of course, the costs are higher.

Nationwide, for example, have taken in a shed load of cash since the NR debacle and are very happy to lend it to people who are not too high risk. What credit crunch?

What up half a percent? Wow!

I'm going to ignore your snottiness. Maybe you could indulge in a discussion without getting snotty? Mortgage refusals at their highest for 6 years. So what? Has this stopped other people buying houses? The housing market can afford to lose the small percentage of buyers that are high risk. There's plenty of low risk ones around.

You are completely over-reacting to the current situation. People can still get mortgages. There is plenty of credit around. It is not suddenly much more expensive. I am not saying sentiment hasn't changed. It has. Or rather, it had. The interest rate drop today will put paid to a lot of negative sentiment. Already the media is full of good news stories.

As I said originally - face it, you can't win. The force is too strong.

Not only are mortgage refusals at highs so are mortgage requests at lows. Libor might have gone up 50 basis points, but that is a significant amount. Twice the Boe cut today in which you put so much significance. I think also you will find that libor is well above the rates found in 2005/6 which is the period you think current events will mirror.

Again you just assert your way to victory making claim after claim but never providing any supporting evidence or sources. If you want to lend even the slightest shred of wieght to tour claims, please quote the easily available CML figures and demonstrate how the month on month falls in applications and month on month rises in failed applications will in fact have no effect on HPI.

I know in advance you will say cant be bothered which is really an admission of cant.

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Again you just assert your way to victory making claim after claim but never providing any supporting evidence or sources. If you want to lend even the slightest shred of wieght to tour claims, please quote the easily available CML figures and demonstrate how the month on month falls in applications and month on month rises in failed applications will in fact have no effect on HPI.

Tricky providing supporting evidence or sources when you are talking about the future. I'm simply saying what I think will happen and why. You clearly don't agree with me. Fair enough. In the grand scheme of things what either of us thinks is of no significance.

I observe a quiet housing market with houses selling at below asking or sticking on the market. Exactly the same as during 2004/5 - as 5 interest rate rises changed sentiment. I observe a rate cut before Christmas now - just as in 2005 - for the same reasons. Housing market slowing, government/BOE terrified of recession.

You proclaim a credit crunch. I observe there is still plenty of credit around to keep the housing market going.

You have drawn your conclusions.

I have drawn mine.

You have no more provided the slightest shred of weight (?) to support your claims than I have mine. It's a difference of opinion, a debate, an argument. Sometimes you have to agree to differ.

By Easter we'll know who has read the situation most accurately. It will give me no pleasure if I am right - I want a HPC as much as anybody.

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HPI wasn't driven by you, it was driven by the likes of him! He won't get credit anymore. Who cares about you? Plus you both have to spend so much more on your petrol expenses/delivery charges/transport etc!

How do you know who drove HPI? Simple fact is house prices went up because the cost of borrowing went down.

Cost of borrowing went down today. It only takes two buyers with access to credit to make a market. If we see building societies like Nationwide rationing mortgages - then I'll believe the credit crunch will have an effect.

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Tricky providing supporting evidence or sources when you are talking about the future. I'm simply saying what I think will happen and why. You clearly don't agree with me. Fair enough. In the grand scheme of things what either of us thinks is of no significance.

I observe a quiet housing market with houses selling at below asking or sticking on the market. Exactly the same as during 2004/5 - as 5 interest rate rises changed sentiment. I observe a rate cut before Christmas now - just as in 2005 - for the same reasons. Housing market slowing, government/BOE terrified of recession.

You proclaim a credit crunch. I observe there is still plenty of credit around to keep the housing market going.

You have drawn your conclusions.

I have drawn mine.

You have no more provided the slightest shred of weight (?) to support your claims than I have mine. It's a difference of opinion, a debate, an argument. Sometimes you have to agree to differ.

By Easter we'll know who has read the situation most accurately. It will give me no pleasure if I am right - I want a HPC as much as anybody.

I have provided alot more weight. All my arguments reference objective data LIBOR mortgage refusals applications etc. All yours do is refer to your own observations. That is the difference, you dont understand that coming to conclusions about what is happening in the real world takes more than merely extrapolating from your own experience which is evinced by the fact that nearly every post you makes cites your own singular subjective experience as a source of authority.

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If they drop the interest rate by .25 or more then; petrol and other fuel goes up, the price of food goes up, the price of many things will go up (including Gold :o ) but i will bet the shirt on my back that the banks will not pass that on to mortgage payers. Interest rates held last month but mortgage payments went up regardless.

They must hold the rate where it is today otherwise the cash strapped home owner will be celebrating a false dawn as other expenses cripple them.

Remember the credit crunch? where is the money going to come from to finance another million mortgages? House prices will fall hard whatever happens to interest rates. Only an idiot would get on the housing horror ride now and first time buyers are few and far between.

The BOE is concerned with inflation, not the housing crisis, why?, because in a couple of years Gordon will be able to say that housing is now affordable for everyone.

The housing market is whey beyond saving now folks. i say Hold.

Borrowers with two of the UK's biggest lenders got an early Christmas present today, as they learned they would benefit from the 0.25% cut in interest rates announced at lunchtime.

Within minutes of the Bank of England's announcement that it had cut rates from 5.75% to 5.5%, Halifax said it would cut its standard variable rate (SVR) by 0.25% to 7.5%.

The cut will take effect from January 1.

The bank has yet to decide whether to adjust savings rates down too, but if it does these will take effect on the same day.

Halifax said 10% of its customers were on mortgages linked to its SVR, with the rest on fixed-rate and tracker deals.

The cut will reduce the cost of a £100,000 repayment mortgage by £16.34 a month.

The UK's biggest building society, Nationwide, quickly followed suit, saying it would reduce its SVR - known as its base mortgage rate (BMR) - by the same amount to 6.99%.

That change will also take effect on January 1, as will cuts in the rates on tracker deals charged by both lenders.

Nationwide said the cut would benefit the 40% of its customers who are on tracker and BMR-related deals.

The internet and telephone bank First Direct has reduced its SVR with immediate effect, with borrowers benefiting from the new rate of 6.50% straight away.

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I have provided alot more weight. All my arguments reference objective data LIBOR mortgage refusals applications etc. All yours do is refer to your own observations. That is the difference, you dont understand that coming to conclusions about what is happening in the real world takes more than merely extrapolating from your own experience which is evinced by the fact that nearly every post you makes cites your own singular subjective experience as a source of authority.

You have provided no weight. I don't dispute the facts - LIBOR is higher, mortgage refusals are higher. I don't dispute that banks aren't lending to each other. Your conclusion is that this will mean a house price crash.

My conclusion is that it won't. You have subjectively interpreted and projected current events. So have I.

I believe IRs will be dropped as low as necessary to stimulate the market again - and that the government/BOE will hang the inflation targets out to dry in the process.

I have not observed that banks and building societies have stopped lending to individuals. They may have tightened criteria, but this will not collapse the market. Less houses will be sold - are being sold - but prices are still only slightly down - and then from normally daft and inflated asking prices.

In my lifetime I have observed housing markets with:

  • very few houses on the market and rising prices

  • very few houses on the market and falling prices

  • lots of houses on the market and rising prices

  • lots of houses on the market and falling prices

I think we are in a lots of houses on the market and only slightly falling prices scenario and that interest rates will be cut to stimulate the market again.

Until mortgages are rationed - there will not be much change.

That is my opinion based on my interpretation of current events. You have yours - but don't kid yourself that yours is by definition correct because it is somehow not subjective.

Only a fool refuses to consider the possibility he is wrong. I'm happy to be wrong. Nothing I'd like to see more than a house price crash. I just can't see it happening before the next election. Happy to be proved wrong over time - not going to be told by you I am definitely wrong because your opinion is based on facts. It isn't. It is an interpretation of facts.

Edited by Lets' get it right
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