Halifax Down For Nov

[Ex-Overseas Landlord]

Have you seen the graph on the Beeb now?

Looks very ominous......

[moshmonsta]

You can see what time this was announced... http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...13/intraday.stm

Oh dear!

Will there be a rate cut?

My compter says no for december.

[Jason]

Full release: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05...ndexNov2007.pdf

Edited December 5, 2007 by Jason

[bobthe~]

Full release: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/HousingResearch.asp

Ah I see you corrected it just as I posted.

Edited December 5, 2007 by bobthe~

[Guest The_Oldie]

Previous month revised down also..

I actually find this more interesting than the November figure .

[Come On Down]

Full release: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05...ndexNov2007.pdf

Finally, a link!

Cheers Jason.

[crashmonitor]

First ever release on Wednesday,always Thursday by which time the MPC has pretty much made up its mind. :angry:

[doh]

Remember they use a quarterly average calculation. If you look at a true year-on-year figure last nov was 187855. This Nov is 194895. That's a 3.75% increase. With RPI at 4.1% house prices are now yoy negative in real terms according to the Halifax... happy christmas!

[crashmonitor]

Remember they use a quarterly average calculation. If you look at a true year-on-year figure last nov was 187855. This Nov is 194895. That's a 3.75% increase. With RPI at 4.1% house prices are now yoy negative in real terms according to the Halifax... happy christmas!

Almost £5000 off August.That is a catacylsmic rate of decline if this continues at that quarterly rate.

[Jason]

October 2007: £197,248 - original (link)

Oct 07 (in Nov's report): £197,248

I don't think they have revised October's figure down. Where did you find out it was revised down?

Remember they use a quarterly average calculation. If you look at a true year-on-year figure last nov was 187855. This Nov is 194895. That's a 3.75% increase.

The crash is on!

Edited December 5, 2007 by Jason

[Guest The_Oldie]

Has anyone seen Spline recently?

[davidg]

dont be silly - it will be flat next year. :angry:

don't be silly, it is just a blip

Strong market fundamentals, a structural housing supply shortage and pent-up demand from a large number of potential first-time buyers will support house prices, preventing a sustained and significant fall... according to the Halifax's figures annual house price inflation still stands at 6.9%

Phew, that's awright then. Better than the 6.7% I get at the Halliwide and I get rental income too!

Edited December 5, 2007 by davidg

[Moo]

Mortgage approvals down 32% in Nov 07 compared to Nov 06.

If this keeps up until next year's busy season then, well, we really do have the Big One.

Argh! Must..... take dump.....in woods....

[Bloo Loo]

8.50, BBC radio 4, they wheeled on a guy from a hedge fund who said that now we have this data, if there is ANY twinkle of a drop in UK growth, he expects 90% chance of a cut this month, and he hoped it would be a 9-0 decision.

[Guest portwinestain]

I love HPC

[Badger]

"I gave up the day job"

[Prude]

How do they calculate YoY 6.3% ?

Why don't they compare their index now with a year earlier as they do with MoM ?

This would seem reasonable and results in 630.8(Nov 07) compared to 610.7(Nov 06) = 3.3%

If they are using a method of calculating YoY that is exaggerating the figure, will this work in reverse and exaggerate the YoY when it goes negative?

[Guest The_Oldie]

U.K. Home Prices Fall for Third Month, Worst Streak Since 1995

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, and consumer confidence slumped, signs that rising credit costs are hobbling growth in Europe's second-largest economy.

The average cost of a home in Britain declined 1.1 percent to 194,895 pounds ($400,000) from a month earlier, after a 0.7 percent drop in October, a report by HBOS Plc said today. Prices last fell for three months in a row in 1995. Consumer optimism declined the most in at least three years, Nationwide Building Society said.

``It's looking pretty grotty out there,'' said Geoffrey Dicks, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. ``This is yet another indicator that the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse.''

The pound dropped after the reports, which came a day before the Bank of England's interest-rate decision. While policy makers say they're still concerned about inflation, the Financial Services Authority said yesterday credit markets may deteriorate next year and banks including Merrill Lynch & Co. forecast the central bank will be forced to cut rates tomorrow.

The pound fell as much as 0.9 percent against the dollar to touch a two-week low, and traded at $2.0407 as of 9:01 a.m. in London.

House prices rose 6.3 percent in the quarter through November from a year earlier, HBOS said.

The Bank of England is watching for signs that tighter credit conditions are cooling economic growth as consumers brace for the property market's worst year in more than a decade. House prices may fall 10 percent next year, Morgan Stanley forecasts.

Split

While 44 of 61 economists still expect the central bank to keep its main rate at a six-year high of 5.75 percent tomorrow, the rest forecast a cut of 25 basis points. That's the biggest split since June 2004.

``There are clearer signs that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace,'' Bank of England Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax said Nov. 23. The bank ``faces a tricky period.''

Nationwide Building Society said today its consumer confidence index fell 12 points to 86, the biggest drop since the index was introduced in May 2004, as faster inflation hurts households' purchasing power. A measure showing willingness to spend fell 14 points to 63, the lowest recorded.

``Uncertainty about the effects of the credit crunch, together with rising oil and food prices, seem to be affecting feelings about jobs and the future economic situation,'' said Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide. ``It is natural that consumers would think about tightening their belts.''

Housing Boom

A decade-long boom in house prices has helped fuel the country's longest stretch of growth since World War II.

Credit costs have risen after losses from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market caused lending between banks to seize up. Three-month Libor rates, a measure of the cost of borrowing for banks, climbed to 6.65 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 18.

British banks have raised the average rate on a mortgage for 95 percent of the price of a property, fixed for 24 months, to 6.37 percent in October from 6.32 percent the previous month, according to the central bank's Web site.

``There is a very real prospect that conditions will worsen further into next year, in terms of both liquidity and credit risks,'' Clive Briault, an official at the Financial Services Authority, said yesterday.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said Nov. 29 that tighter credit conditions may curb household demand. ``With borrowing more expensive, and less easily available,'' he said, there may be ``slower growth of consumer spending.''

Slowing growth is already hurting sales at U.K. stores. Moss Bros Group Plc, Britain's third-largest suit retailer, said today full-year profit probably won't meet analysts' estimates.

Clapham House Group Plc, ScS Upholstery Plc and Regent Inns Plc have also said this week that revenue will suffer as Britons pare spending on everything from furniture to burgers to beer.

[Jason]

How do they calculate YoY 6.3% ?

Why don't they compare their index now with a year earlier as they do with MoM ?

This would seem reasonable and results in 630.8(Nov 07) compared to 610.7(Nov 06) = 3.3%

If they are using a method of calculating YoY that is exaggerating the figure, will this work in reverse and exaggerate the YoY when it goes negative?

They're comparing the average of the last three months against the same 3 months a year earlier. Hence smoothing out the peak and drop in prices, also provides a delay to when YoY goes negative.

[Bloo Loo]

"British banks have raised the average rate on a mortgage for 95 percent of the price of a property, fixed for 24 months, to 6.37 percent in October from 6.32 percent the previous month, according to the central bank's Web site"

So in spite of BoE rates being stable, the banks have different ideas- will a rate cut by the BoE make any difference at all?

[crashmonitor]

"I gave up the day job"

Weird that you should super- impose Kirsty like that.When I bumped into her(literally)in the middle of filming on Southampton Row,Holborn,London at the beginning of November this year she was wearing something resembling an ethnic kaftan.

[ManorHouseOwner]

most damning house market info sneaked in at the end:

"Completed property sales are down 15% on an annual basisand new buyer interest in purchasing a house fell for the eleventh successive month in November."

[DoctorJ]

YES YES YES!

Game over baby yeah!!

[jp1]

Notice the BBC wording 'House prices dip 1.1% in November'. I'm sure if this was 1.1% increase they could of found a more exciting way of conveying this article to us.

Get with the program

Fall = "dip", "lull", "market pausing for breath", "cool", "soften"

[Guest The_Oldie]

YES YES YES!

Game over baby yeah!!

Let's not get too carried away, this thing is going to take a few years, some months down others up a bit, but 30-40% falls by 2012 ish looks to be on the cards.