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Asking prices increased by 2.7%, I can believe that.

They wont get their asking price of course.

I know that there are, anecdotally, many people who are putting their homes up for sale (expecting this is a market peak) to cash in.

If they buy another property (up the ladder) then they are very stupid, as they are buying at peak... fools.

If they STR, then they've left it a little late but could get lucky.

If they're downsizing, then this could have an interesting effect on the market, as everyone plays musical chairs up and down the ladder, but without an FTBs.

Might be fun to watch, expecially when the music stops. :lol:

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Not more spin at all. It appears even rightmove are trying to talk the market down. I'd urge everyone to read it.

Indeed. Just examine the language:

Commentary

...

Key Points

Asking prices rise sharply, by an average 2.3% (£4,321), with some sellers and

estate agents unable to shake off ingrained spring boom mentality of recent years

• Record surge of 132,000 newly marketed properties is competing against large

existing overhang of supply, with 30% more property available than last February

• Buoyant economy and stable interest rates mean there is little urgency to sell:

without forced sellers, long term stagnation, rather than falling prices, may set in

• Inexperienced estate agents, desperate from lack of sales commission since

summer, fail to price realistically and gamble on continuation of market recovery

• Compiled from measuring nearly 132,000 asking prices of actual properties put

on sale by estate agents from 8th Jan to 12th Feb 2005 – over half the market

A ‘typical’ February rise in prices…

In a typical year, estate agents compete with each other to build their stocks of properties for sale in January and February, in preparation for the customary spring pick-up in activity.

This competition results in some optimistic asking prices and when combined with renewed buyer interest, affordability and limited supply, results in a rising market.

A look back over the last few years suggests that as the housing market picks up from its festive slowdown, asking prices always tend to rise in February. In 2004 they rose by 2.1%, while February in the previous 2 years saw increases of 2.0% and 4.5%.

…but it’s not a typical spring boom year

Asking prices have risen this month, as is typical of the last few years, but it’s not a typical year that sellers and their estate agents have become accustomed to. Activity levels have been really low since summer last year,†says Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove. “Just look at the recent Land Registry figures, which meaure all transactions in the market. They showed a 24% decline in actual transactions completed in the last quarter of 2004 as compared with one year earlier, and the lowest for 6 years, since 1998.

In addition prices fell by over £5,000 or 2.7% as compared with the previous quarter, a bigger decrease than had been measured by all other price achieved indicators.â€

Rightmove have lost the horns and sprouted claws ... GRRRRRR! ( <- that's a bear growl by the way)

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North West up 5.9% in Feb? Are they taking the mick?

In every dramatic market you get really iconic events and this may be one. Either the market has been parked up for the winter and it is about to go into overdrive or is going to wait to be towed away to the tip. I reckon it is all down to the BTL people; either they stand up tall and carry on investing and prove that we are in a new era or the real bear market starts.

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I really don't think Rightmove figures mean anything.  Just an increase in the number of more expensive properties being listed on there would increase their indices.

Thats a good point.

I think we are also seeing the effect of people holding off during the winter ready for the spring bounce. Take for example somebody who looks at putting it on back in November gets the EA round and he values it at £100K, they decide to hold off until after christmas by which time the market has gone down £2-3K. But having had it valued at £100K that's what they want for it so stick it on at £100K, hey presto a 2.x% increase over night.

I'm sure there is to some degree a mentality of put it on for £110k take £100k.

I'm always interested in the figures from rightmove, not because they are in anyway an accurate measure of house prices but they do give an indication of seller sentiment.

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The phsycology of this is really interesting. I know a couple that have just put their house on the market, they got it valued at 200k in spring 2003 and have been expecting to put it on the market now for 260k. They couldn't believe it when the estate agent said should go on for 210k and they should expect to get offers no higher than 190k.

It's going to take a few months before people learn that prices can fall as well as rise.

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Rightmove is Countrywide owned isn't it??

I've noticed Countrywide staff getting quite desperate in their dealings with me as a tenant.

They have tried to get money off of me anyway possible including trying to charge for references for other letting agents and trying to levy fees for not showing up for appointments.

And when I had a discussion with one of their staff a few weeks ago, and I asked if the market was flat his face turned red and he ranted at me for 1/4 hour about how it was people like me (Potential FTBers with enough money to buy, but who won't buy) who are the problem. twit.

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"And when I had a discussion with one of their staff a few weeks ago, and I asked if the market was flat his face turned red and he ranted at me for 1/4 hour about how it was people like me (Potential FTBers with enough money to buy, but who won't buy) who are the problem. twit."

That's disgraceful, I hope you told him it was crazy house prices that was the real problem?

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Just watch the estate agents start going out of business big time.

Greed greed greed greed greed. Laid bare for all to see. That's what this report shows.

The oversupply will continue, and at this rate will surely reach massive levels.

I have started keeping an index tracking the number of properties for sale in my local area.

With these asking prices, and with 92% of FTB's priced out and BTLs leaving the market - personally I think that EA's will soon have to stop taking on new properties.

The EAs aren't totally thick - they will know in their heart of hearts that they can't sell so much as a brick at the moment. Sellers are going to have to get realistic big time.

Full marks to Rightmove however for the tone of the report. As far as EAs are concerned the next 12 months are going to sort the men from the boys.

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I really don't think Rightmove figures mean anything.  Just an increase in the number of more expensive properties being listed on there would increase their indices.

I'm seeing this in my area two - see thread 'EA adds 30 properties ...' on the house prices in your area, section. Definitely more higher priced properties coming on to the market, and chains starting to re-build around that.

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I really don't think Rightmove figures mean anything.  Just an increase in the number of more expensive properties being listed on there would increase their indices.

I think you may have hit the nail on the head there. Round here most of the 3 bed and 4 bed detached stuff is in the 300k to 500k range - and masses of them have hit the market since Christmas. Nothing is selling, but I imagine the average asking price round here has definitely gone up - simply because of this. The new houses have joined all the ones that have been sticking on the market for a year or more.

Its the Agents that bother me - don't appear to have a grey cell between them. The local property paper is full of headlines quoting agents 'Sellers must set realistic prices to achieve a sale' - then the same agent goes out and takes on a property that sold a year ago for 388k and puts it on the market untouched (it was already fully renovated and extended) for £425k. (These people will still be in this property in 3 years time).

Yes, asking prices have gone up. Great isn't it! Blind refusal to drop prices will cause complete stagnation and guarantee a crash will be more likely than a gradual slowdown.

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It took around 4/5 months from the middle of last year when transactions were booming (to get a loan sorted before FSA regs) till agnets started going to the wall in greater numbers. Without positive cashflow agents will close. The number of loans is down and the number of new loan appplications is still very weak. Higher asking prices are just as likely persuade potential buyers that there are still priced out of the market as drag them into purchasing.

Tough time for agents - the seller price expectation measure has been reset, the agents will have to go through all that process again of bringing asking prices/potential offers back in line. Meanwhile there are too few transactions for too many agents. Spring prices may bounce but agents coffers look less likely to than ever.

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I would love to see some agents going bust... it'd make my day.

The number of spotty ill-educated oiks driving around in BMWs thinking that they are something special cos they're an estate agent is quite galling.

I save my money, instead of spending it all on new toys like these junior EA boys.

How many EAs will have saved any of their money during the 'fat' years to cover them during the coming 'lean' years.... not too many I would wager. They're probably all relying on that never ending HPI. :lol:

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Countrywide own a large share, yes.

A Countrywide owned estate agent is the biggest offender of overvaluing in my local town, so imagine my amusement when I read the following in the Rightmove report:

In many towns there seems to be a ‘rogue’ agent who tempts prospective sellers with an unrealistically high valuation.

Glass houses, stones, throwing etc.

Priceless.

Same in our town. We call them "B@st@rd and Theives"

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The surge in properties could be the proverbial straw that breaks the EA's back. Every one of these properties has to be marketed, ads in local rags etc. Fixed costs can't be trimmed (due to the vol of sellers needing service) and variable costs go through the roof, (every ad costs hard cash) - net result is EA's experiencing the phenomenon of 'burn-rate' just like back in the dotcom days. Only those that can generate real sales can stem the cash outflow, and only those with strong balance sheets will survive.

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Could we be seeing a deliberate war of attrition breaking out amongst agents, instigated by the big boys? Deep down most agents probably know that 20-30% will need to go to the wall this year if the rest are to survive.

Could well be, but I reckon we may also see a few bigger casualties among some of those who believed their own hype

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The Rightmove statistics are misleading.

The report only relates to properties first put on the market from 8 Jan to 12 Feb 2005. Already listed properties which have been reduced in price are NOT included!

It would be very interesting to see how sellers expectations have fallen but Rightmove doesn't analyse this.

The press picks up on the headline figure but they don't examine the data.

I suggest you contact their Market Intelligence Manager and complain:

stuart.chung@rightmove.co.uk

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Surely Rightmoves figures will be reflected by Nationwide and Halifax at the end of the month, Mervs gonna have a tough time Swervin this!

Though I dare say Halifax will hold off until after the BOE meeting.

Maybe, maybe not. The indices do sometimes appear in conflict with one another.

NW and Halifax are based on mortgage approvals of loans agreed and are seasonally adjusted (aka fiddled).

ODPM measure prices at completion stage and are not SA.

Land Registry are actual sale price, but are time delayed I think by about 3-5 months.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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