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Ok I admit it, I've been Lurking in the shadows for nearly a year now like some sort of HPC stalker...The shame! :unsure:

It's somewhat of an addiction actually, I lurk everyday without fail. What I've learned regarding the fundamental economics, driving not just house prices but the financial markets and the global fiat monetary system from browsing some of the topics on this site has been invaluable: I can now convincingly bore most of the people I know and have stopped being invited round to dinner in case I become suddenly too earnest after a bottle of wine and simply have to explain to everyone why an economy based on a mountain of debt and unsustainable HPI is destined to collapse and how everyone should think about buying some Gold and open a Euro bank account. I'm usually asked to leave after the second bottle when I get on to the history of the Central Banks and the coming kondratieff wave winter phase... :unsure::ph34r:

I discovered you lot just before my partner started an MSc (she's French by the way- been speaking English for four years and is expecting a first from a London Uni). We moved to a very small but cheap London flat (rented), we probably could have bought (like some of our friends) by stretching ourselves back in early 2006 when we were 27 and 25 but she wanted the qualification and we held off- anyway what we would have got in south west London on a joint income of 50K was beyond a joke, even then. Since sept 06, we have been living very frugally, pretty tough at times, but extremely character building and it has been very useful for my frame of mind to be able to browse this site and look at some of the discussions for and against the possibility of a HPC-

I agree wholeheartedly that house prices are over valued and unsustainable, I have seen over the last year a massive shift in sentiment both locally and Nationally, I have watched openmouthed as predictions made six months previously on the impact of CDOs and Subprime and the current market turmoil came bubbling to the surface and I waited with baited breath for Q2 2007 to come and pass to see the peak of domestic HPI- You weren't far wrong RB!

Now I've got that off my chest maybe I'll post more often....nothing like a bit of therapy to help me quit my pervy lurking ways!

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Hi there.

I have been a lurker here for 6+ months now, trying (without success) to get my brain to learn the more complicated aspects of macro economics before attempting to post something intelligent. I think I have now got the gist of the general issues which are discussed on here, and would like to thank all those dedicated posters who have both educated and entertained me with their wit.

My interest in this site is, having suffered from negative equity in the 90's and STR'd far too early in recent times, I am determined to not to make another mistake but buy my next home at the bottom of the market. It is a massive relief to know that the crash is upon us and 2008 will be very interesting for us all.

Regards

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Now this has got to stop...informative as this site is, coupled with its savagery , minimal empathy, top draw comedy...you cant start building HPC into this millennium fecking ARK.......

"The savers came in two by two, hurrah hurrah, the savers came in two by two hurrah hurrah."

"The savers came in two by two....they all wanted a crash to monopolize their cash" etc etc

HPC is an Ark! Come on you’ve all seen it coming! When the floods recede we’ll send out a FTB (dove) to find a property a if it comes back with a mortgage we’ll know the land is cleansed.

I’m sure we’ll also see plagues bird flu blue tongue

Oh yes and we've had real floods in the UK! The HPC cult.

By the way all you Lurkers well done for coming out of the shaddows, and for those of you still lurking come forward!!! Now is the Time!!!

Regulars please think of some good reasons for the Lurkers to come forward.

By the way looks like the people who have already come forward could really contribute to the discussions!!

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Hi there,

Another lurker de-cloaking :) I've been monitoring the site since early 2004 but never got round to joining in. Always more fun to watch and learn and bide my time, just as we all do!

A bit about myself, I live in Chelmsford after finishing University in 2002. By the way, if anyone wants a very physical manifestation of the credit-mania that surrounds them then I would suggest a quick trip to Chelmsford by train. Upon exiting the station you'll be on Duke Street, a long road almost ENTIRELY filled with estate agents, banks, letting agents, mortgage brokers, solicitors, cheques-cashed-while-u-wait shops and pawn shops. It is truly a sight to behold. It's also living proof of Douglas Adam's Shoe Event Horizon theory which, unlike K-wave, doesn't get enough press on this website.

I'm married with a 4-week old baby and, up until the birth, my wife worked for the local Council. The communications coming through local government have been really eye-opening. They know full well that things are going badly wrong, they are seeing massive rises in repossessions and they are in the front line of trying to get people into homes. I don't think it would be an understatement to say that you would find an atmosphere of pure fear if you head to your local Council offices today.

Anyway, that's enough for me. One question someone may be able to answer for me though - could you tell me where I could pick up a copy of the "On The Treadmill" study from a year or two back?

Cheers!

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Hi there,

Another lurker de-cloaking :) I've been monitoring the site since early 2004 but never got round to joining in. Always more fun to watch and learn and bide my time, just as we all do!

A bit about myself, I live in Chelmsford after finishing University in 2002. By the way, if anyone wants a very physical manifestation of the credit-mania that surrounds them then I would suggest a quick trip to Chelmsford by train. Upon exiting the station you'll be on Duke Street, a long road almost ENTIRELY filled with estate agents, banks, letting agents, mortgage brokers, solicitors, cheques-cashed-while-u-wait shops and pawn shops. It is truly a sight to behold. It's also living proof of Douglas Adam's Shoe Event Horizon theory which, unlike K-wave, doesn't get enough press on this website.

I'm married with a 4-week old baby and, up until the birth, my wife worked for the local Council. The communications coming through local government have been really eye-opening. They know full well that things are going badly wrong, they are seeing massive rises in repossessions and they are in the front line of trying to get people into homes. I don't think it would be an understatement to say that you would find an atmosphere of pure fear if you head to your local Council offices today.

Anyway, that's enough for me. One question someone may be able to answer for me though - could you tell me where I could pick up a copy of the "On The Treadmill" study from a year or two back?

Cheers!

Welcome.

Not sure where you can get a copy “of on the treadmill”??

The only thing I could find was this

http://www.abdn.ac.uk/sociology/onthetreadmill/

Can anyone else help??

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Hi,

Am a definite lurker - only 12 posts i think since 2004!! would post more but everyone else on here seems far more clued up than I am on what's going on and would definitely show my ignorance if i posted more. Am a would-be first time buyer and am definitely hoping for a reduction in prices, if not a complete crash as I'll then be able to afford to buy - am in a minority on this site I think as I can't really afford to buy at today's prices and would love my own home - fed up living in a sea of magnolia walls and want some colour!

Anyhow, I love the site and reading everyone's posts.

Helen

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Hi,

Am a definite lurker - only 12 posts i think since 2004!! would post more but everyone else on here seems far more clued up than I am on what's going on and would definitely show my ignorance if i posted more. Am a would-be first time buyer and am definitely hoping for a reduction in prices, if not a complete crash as I'll then be able to afford to buy - am in a minority on this site I think as I can't really afford to buy at today's prices and would love my own home - fed up living in a sea of magnolia walls and want some colour!

Anyhow, I love the site and reading everyone's posts.

Helen

Helen

Your as well placed as anyone to comment on this site!! (FTB)

Just tell it as you see it

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Hello all HPCers.Well Ive been lurking now for about 2 months.Found this site by accident after we,d STR.I was concerned about weather we,d made the right decision.Googled "house price crash" and here I am. Our story goes like this. Met my wife 2 years after she bought her maisonette in 1992 and we lived there until this year.We decided to move only solely to get into the catchment area of a decent secondary school for my eldest as she,s due to move up next year.Schools near our home were really sh1te drugs knives chavs the usual.Never really followed house prices as we always considered our house as a home NOT a money generating cash cow.Started paying off our mortgage in 02 after getting warning letters from the endowment company.Due to pure luck rather than any financial shrewdness and a really small mortgage we had payed it off by 06.The feeling of living mortgage/debt free is amazing.Anyway we looked to buy and nearly did but pulled out 2 weeks before completion because of issues with the survey.This left us too short a time to complete on another house before applying to relevant schools and so our only option left was to rent.This all happened in August just before the s**t hit the fan.Couldn't believe the ridiculous over pricing of houses,even with selling the maisonette we were still needing to borrow over £100K to move up the ladder.EAs treated us like sh1te never phoning etc.Mind you they won't leave us alone now!!!! :lol::lol: Living in a nice 3 bed rented semi now in a nice area just like we wanted to buy!!!!Just waiting now for prices to reset to a sensible level. This site is a revalation.Never realised there were so many people that thought the same as me about debt credit cards etc.Can,t believe this economy has carried on like this for so long!! :huh: Learn't so much the past 2 months.There are some really clued up people on here.Probably wo'nt post much as my economic understanding is pretty basic, but I've got some good anecdotals to share soon. Anyway sorry to ramble on .Back to lurkin. :P

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hello all. I've lurked since 2004, um, only registered to post this...

I remember the turmoil of the late 80's re house prices and made my mistakes in shares during the dotcom boom while renting houses in the 90's from landlords in negative equity. I watched them struggle when tenants squatted, moved out unanounced or withheld rent for minor problems...not that anyone i know would do the latter :rolleyes:

I've watched my friends who don't know what "gearing" mean jump on the BTL bandwagon over the last five years and barely break even, if that. We don't talk about it. Some have trouble with their tenants. I resisted my wife badgering us to do the same because "everyone's doing it".

I've seen city centre apartments being built in 2003 that now make great bases for organised crime (near to the night action).

Worringly, only last year a friend of mine on the minimum wage bought an ex-council house at 100% mortgage. They were desperate to move their kids out of a council house estate and felt this was the only way. I didn't try to stop them because all they wanted is a better life. Don't we all?

I bought a house in 2001 and look forward to my asset being lowering in value- I have a growing family and we want to climb the ladder and those rungs are too far apart. I look forward to inflation and it reducing the size of our debts.

I've learnt the hard way that "the market" is not some abstract concept - it includes me, you and all my friends. Everyone can get hurt.

Thanks for such informative posts and take care..

Now, back to lurking..

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This seems an appropriate thread for my first post.........

Lurking on this board most of this year. Predicting crash, or at least a downwave, since 2001 (so no one I know listens to me anymore).

Student renting 84-91, went into 2nd degree in 88 thinking 'As I cant buy now, maybe I never will be able to afford to'..... WRONG: Bought and sold 91 and 94 in the last trough. 'Overextended' myself in 94, buying at depost of 1.5 times income + 3 x mortgage. Paid off that mortgage in 2005 (yes i live on beans and sawdust, student habits plus no desire to own a car which costs more than my pushbike....). Piles of cash, bonds and shares accumulating for the next trough. Would like crash to be quick as in 3 years time my eldest goes to secondary school and our local is one of those in special measures where every shiney new head they get in to fix it leaves with his tail and reputation in shreds.

Got my (typical semi, neighbours are teachers, nurses, taxidrivers, all over 40) house 'valued' by EAs last year at 280K - so about 14 x average income, >5 x my current income.

Will be sad to see all the recent young FTBs burnt in the crash, but cant say I didnt try to warn those close to me, and it will be for the greater good, as I know far youngsters who are totally priced out. Sadly, it will be the high-potential youngsters who have still been able to buy these last few years who will get burnt most - Many I know will simply up and leave the UK.

Goes without saying I have only the deepest contempt for both rampers and our sorry excuse for a government

Gen_Melchett.jpg

post-11428-1195749359_thumb.jpg

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Hi All. I lurk on most work days. Became interested since I realised that a fall in prices is a good thing even if you are a house owner, providing that:

1. You are not about to leave the market

2. You don't suffer negative equity

3. In the future you want to live in a bigger housethan you do now

4. You don't use capital in your house as some sort if cash machine.

The point being that you have a need to house yourself until you die, it is better for you that this cost is cheap not expensive - simple.

I don't however subscribe to the view that houses should be treated as sacred assets not to be used to make money, we use a free market (sort of) model and if this can be used by BTL's to make money, fair play. Or if people want to use capital in their house to spend on consumable status symbols to make themselves feel 'secure' :o thats their choice.

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Been lurking for a couple of years.

My situation is that I decided to buy for the first time November 06 with other half. No regrets. Great house. Prices pretty much the same now, as when we bought. If they go down as it looks like they will then as were staying put for the long term it shouldn't affect us too much. I'm 25 now and current plans are to have mortgage paid off by 37.

If houses crash, they crash. I'm not going to obsess about it.

Ok, off back to my lurking. See you all in 2 years for post #2.

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Ditto. Long time lurker. Used to post under a different user name. Bought property in London in 1996 at rock bottom price and stupidly sold in 2002 thinking that tripling my money was as good as it was going to get. How wrong was I! And now I'm suffering. I bought a house in Australia at the peak and then sold it for what I had paid or it 4 years earlier. There's an example of chasing the market down for you! So, I lost all the HPI that I could have gained from 2002 if I'd kept my property in London. I'm virtually suicidal about it, hence I don't post much. I just tend to feed my misery! Oh well, we live and learn. I have a pot of about £80k and I'm hoping to be able to buy again one day. Thanks to all the posters for keeping me informed.

It all adds to the rich tapestry of life.

Sounds like you have been around a bit, and enjoyed yourself. What better, sit at home in a property feeling rich today, then poor seven years later, then rich again, then poor again as the cycles wax and wane.

Or getting out, breathing Gods air, and living it.

We get three score years and twenty at best, if we are very very lucky. Each of us when we are lying on our death beds are not going to look back and sigh, "Fck, I wish I had worked my ars3 off to buy a three bed detached in Hackney, I only have a 2 bed in Cheam and a 25k mortgage left to pay"

The most valuable thing each and every one of us have is life, and the opportunity to either make new life, or make others lives better as well as our own.

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Cheers LJ. You might remember who I was if I cared to reveal my former self! It's a bitter pill to swallow, but swallow it I must. Let's hope the coming downturn sees me heads up again! I'm working on that new life! Let me be a lesson to others. Don't count your chickens people. It can all be gone in a whisker! ;)

I think we all look back and regret certain things (if only I knew then what I know now syndrome), but there a far worse things to regret than property. As LJ said the last thing on our minds will be the 2up 2 down. It's not worth beating yourself up over it.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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