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Lurkers Amnesty


Mike1045
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Lurking most days since 2004: I'm utterly addicted though I never post, not least because of my tempestuous choice of screen name! While I'm out of the closet, so to speak, thank you all for your educational and often humorous posts, and for giving my partner and I much needed support in answering our plethora of friends and colleagues who incessantly question our sanity for refusing to buy in the present economic climate. We STR in 2003 convinced a correction was coming and it's been a long haul made considerably more bearable by this site. My daily mantra when perusing the morning news tends to be either “how much longer can the madness last?” or, in a tone reminiscent of Victor Meldrew, “I don’t believe it!” Right, back off to the shadow lands again for me... :ph34r:

The way I see it your not on your own, People who I know who are bull to the core are even feeling it. E.G my friend and his wife just had another kid, need bigger house, can’t afford it because the next step on the ladder is just to far out of reach.

Brother, BTL Scum sold his entire portfolio of two houses early this year as even he can see the coming disaster!!

Don’t stay in the shadows!

Edit - There is no ladder!

Edited by Mike1045
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Hi all, I been lurking for 1 month now (since I STR) and I'm totally addicted.

when I wake, I run to fire up the computer and read forum posts (often late for work).

sneak home at dinner time to read the posts. ;)

Finish work to read the post, then on/off all night(as much as my family life will allow).

Finally when my eyes can no longer take it (1AM - 2AM) bed

repeat.......

My family think i have a problem with my total infatuation with HPC :(

My wife is a non believer of the HPC and will not reason with logic or interest to any arguments I put forward to the contrary.

I think she is still very pissed at having to sell our dream property due to growing finical restrictions (Dept's and higher cost of living), Yes reality struck home, outgoings = incoming - £200. :(

Then I insisted to going into rented instead of purchasing another AFFORDABLE property (Yes i really want to gave a chav my money and live next door to his chavy mates). :lol:

The first thing i did was to pay off all Dept's and loans etc.... :P

This was the best feeling in the world.

Next was to put the remaining capital (£120,000) in NS&I ISA X3 and NS&I Premium Bonds X4

And now I'm waiting.......

This site makes the waiting more BEARable..

And thats me ;)

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Hi all, I been lurking for 1 month now (since I STR) and I'm totally addicted.

when I wake, I run to fire up the computer and read forum posts (often late for work).

sneak home at dinner time to read the posts. ;)

Finish work to read the post, then on/off all night(as much as my family life will allow).

Finally when my eyes can no longer take it (1AM - 2AM) bed

repeat.......

My family think i have a problem with my total infatuation with HPC :(

My wife is a non believer of the HPC and will not reason with logic or interest to any arguments I put forward to the contrary.

I think she is still very pissed at having to sell our dream property due to growing finical restrictions (Dept's and higher cost of living), Yes reality struck home, outgoings = incoming - £200. :(

Then I insisted to going into rented instead of purchasing another AFFORDABLE property (Yes i really want to gave a chav my money and live next door to his chavy mates). :lol:

The first thing i did was to pay off all Dept's and loans etc.... :P

This was the best feeling in the world.

Next was to put the remaining capital (£120,000) in NS&I ISA X3 and NS&I Premium Bonds X4

And now I'm waiting.......

This site makes the waiting more BEARable..

And thats me ;)

well done for you.i bet that was one of the hardest decisions you have ever had to make, time will tell but i reckon in the next few years your wife will come to think of you as a shrewd cookie.

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ok, I've lurked awhile, about time I contributed too - a good effort to flush us all out!

I'm an equity investor, and an economist by training. I've focussed on financial services, not just UK, for many years. So, I'll be one of those in the City that so many of you despise.

I'm not into property except I own my home, and it is my home, not an investment, I'm not moving. So I have no vested interest in prices either way as such, but i'm interested in the implications of changes in the housing market on the economy, company profits and hence share prices. So I lurk for the anedoctal views and conflicting evidence that I hope will enable me to spot trends before they are properly discounted in share prices.

But I guess given I see so much news it would only be fair for me to put a bit back into the system. Much of what I see finds its way onto this site anyway, but not all. For example, yesterday hard data (DataQuick) from California showing prices down 12.4% from the peak in April, and down y-on-y 8%, compared with only 4% in September (new and old houses combined, so it includes the hidden subsidies from the home builders I've seen discussed here). The US looks to be about a year ahead of the UK on most measures, transaction numbers are still falling - down 43% year on year, and down 61% from the peak in October 2004 and that's with a growing population and growing economy - and for those who see rate cuts in the UK bailing out the market, I'm afraid you can draw no comfort from the US, where rates have been cut twice now but the decline is, seemingly, accelerating. Falling prices there are not driven by higher rates or recession (not yet at least... ), the usual causes of stress in the past. Median prices now appear lower than the UK (incomes are higher), and it started as a soft landing. Hard landings always start as soft landings.

Whilst I try and keep an open mind (closing ones eyes and ears to emerging evidence as to what is going on is a quick route to failure in the investment world I live in, but seems common in BTL world), I'm a bear. There's too big a disconnect between what's happening to banks/lenders - who have fund much of the euphoria in housing and clearly will not continue to do so to the same extent - and the strong beliefs and behaviour of a now shrinking majority of the population. Fundamentals will always out.

Perhaps the bulls out there should consider selling at least some of their property and buying bank shares, they'll get a much higher yield (7%+) with no voids, less effort, no problem tenants, no depreciation, no having to finding a plumber to do CORGI checks or solicitors/valuers/assorted other fee-charging parties, quicker access to their capital, a massive reduction in stamp duty and much lower transaction commissions. You could go on holiday, paid for with the extra yield, to occupy all the time you would free up. If you are right to be bullish, the banks will surely be fine, lending will grow, few losses will accrue on mortgages, the shares would surely go up. You could even get the gearing benefits from options at modest cost without the real downside risk. That's really not a recommendation, by the way! And if you don't think that a good idea, perhaps you might ponder whether there are any inconsistencies embedded in your thinking.

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Another lurker coming out of the undergrowth. (I do dislike the word 'lurker' though I know it's generic across other forums too.) I live in tied accommodation and have three children in early adulthood who can't afford to buy.

I've found the forum very informative, and very encouraging when I worry about my children's future ... but I find some of the anti-immigrant, anti-Labour, anti-Europe, anti ignorant-poor ('chav') posts unpleasant.

To sit on a heap of gold and mock those less fortunate than oneself, or to go in for "anyone who earns less than £30,000 is a failure" sneers is simply repellent. Some people are dealt a bad hand (lack of brains, lack of opportunity), and many others choose a humble lifestyle, perhaps so as to care for parents for example.

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I lurked for about 6 months and joined because I became interested in gold.

I was absolutely gobsmacked to find out i am about 5th most prolific poster on the gold thread, and I would never dream of risking holding more than 15% in gold anyway.

I am not a gold crank - honest - the avatar was nothing to do with gold.

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I've found the forum very informative, and very encouraging when I worry about my children's future ... but I find some of the anti-immigrant, anti-Labour, anti-Europe, anti ignorant-poor ('chav') posts unpleasant.

To sit on a heap of gold and mock those less fortunate than oneself, or to go in for "anyone who earns less than £30,000 is a failure" sneers is simply repellent. Some people are dealt a bad hand (lack of brains, lack of opportunity), and many others choose a humble lifestyle, perhaps so as to care for parents for example.

Hear hear. I suppose I don't notice it so much nowadays as I have developed a pretty sophisticated filter for ignoring most of that kind of tripe.

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:ph34r: Longtime lurker, first time poster!

I've been lurking for around six months, very much enjoying this site.

Whilest a home owner (and no plans to change that) I'm willing for a "correction" as the next natural move up the ladder is so un realistically far away price wise its ridiculous. we're just not willing to get into hock for the next , erm forever to live in a bigger house.

Any, thats me! All you regulars keep up the good work!

Edited by Bringmesunshine
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Another lurker coming out of the undergrowth. (I do dislike the word 'lurker' though I know it's generic across other forums too.) I live in tied accommodation and have three children in early adulthood who can't afford to buy.

I've found the forum very informative, and very encouraging when I worry about my children's future ... but I find some of the anti-immigrant, anti-Labour, anti-Europe, anti ignorant-poor ('chav') posts unpleasant.

To sit on a heap of gold and mock those less fortunate than oneself, or to go in for "anyone who earns less than £30,000 is a failure" sneers is simply repellent. Some people are dealt a bad hand (lack of brains, lack of opportunity), and many others choose a humble lifestyle, perhaps so as to care for parents for example.

You should post more then....if you give the alternative view you may be surprised to find that many people on here share your view or at least have some common ground with you. Personally though, I try not to see things in terms of right and wrong....

Btw, I was also born and brought up in tied houses (4), lived abroard for 20 years before returning to the U.K. to care for my Mum. Strangely ,I'm glad to be free from property ownership, I feel it gives me much more flexability.

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Have a look at the pinned topic on the front of the forum. That will probably sort you out...

TD

Thanks I'll look at that......BTW I have a letter in The Express today re their opinion on who should set interest rates. For the past 10 years they have been full of praise for Gordon Brown's decision to give the BOE control of interest rates, on Wednesday they said that interest rate decisions should be made by an elected authority like Alistair Darling...............Talk about moving the goal posts. :rolleyes:

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that's not a prob... neither does CGNAO and he's a Veteran!

I miss CGNAO: he brought such an air of drama to this forum.

But I was disappointed by the petulance of his final contribution -- berating the moderators for moving his post to another part of the forum. If he can be that petty about small things, can we really trust his wisdom about bigger things?

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Hi Everyone - I've been lurking HousePriceCrash (and addicted to it) since 2004.

I remember how great it felt discovering the site and finding I wasn't alone in not buying into the stupidity that is the UK housing "market".

Mind you, I took advantage of the stupidity myself and sold my house in December 2005 for £85000 after owning it for three years having paid £41000 for it. Even when I saw the £43000 in my bank account, I still couldn't believe that a perfectly rational looking man like the guy who bought it from me (after only 4 days on the market) was willing to do so.

I paid off all my credit cards and bank loans (circa £36000) and have been a soundly-sleeping contented renter ever since.

Biggest problem I had was convincing my dad and astonished workmates I was doing the right thing. "Property only goes up" or "remortgage and pay off your debts" was all they could say.

Finally, about 6 months ago my old man commented on how much happier I seem these days and that he now thinks I did the right thing...perhaps he's discovered the site too...!!!

And that's my story. Thanks to everyone on the site for continuing to spread the word - but try to be easy on the "chavs" and immigrants folks, they're being shafted too...by the real scum - and I think we all know who they are!!!

Cheers

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Blimey, you're all going to hate me!

I'd been lurking for a while prior to registering though never had the nerve to join in :unsure: as I'm what you'd probably call BTL S**m.

In my defence, I bought some run down terrace houses that in the sixties had been converted into flats, and hadn't had anything done to them since. Since buying them I've brought all the flats up to a good standard (central heating/double glazing/new kitchens etc), kept rents below market rates and try to help the tenants where I can, so I'm hoping that allows me some leeway from just being classed as BTL S**m.

Anyway, thought I'd take advantage of the amnesty and say Hi :)

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ok, I've lurked awhile, about time I contributed too - a good effort to flush us all out!

I'm an equity investor, and an economist by training. I've focussed on financial services, not just UK, for many years. So, I'll be one of those in the City that so many of you despise.

I'm not into property except I own my home, and it is my home, not an investment, I'm not moving. So I have no vested interest in prices either way as such, but i'm interested in the implications of changes in the housing market on the economy, company profits and hence share prices. So I lurk for the anedoctal views and conflicting evidence that I hope will enable me to spot trends before they are properly discounted in share prices.

But I guess given I see so much news it would only be fair for me to put a bit back into the system. Much of what I see finds its way onto this site anyway, but not all. For example, yesterday hard data (DataQuick) from California showing prices down 12.4% from the peak in April, and down y-on-y 8%, compared with only 4% in September (new and old houses combined, so it includes the hidden subsidies from the home builders I've seen discussed here). The US looks to be about a year ahead of the UK on most measures, transaction numbers are still falling - down 43% year on year, and down 61% from the peak in October 2004 and that's with a growing population and growing economy - and for those who see rate cuts in the UK bailing out the market, I'm afraid you can draw no comfort from the US, where rates have been cut twice now but the decline is, seemingly, accelerating. Falling prices there are not driven by higher rates or recession (not yet at least... ), the usual causes of stress in the past. Median prices now appear lower than the UK (incomes are higher), and it started as a soft landing. Hard landings always start as soft landings.

Whilst I try and keep an open mind (closing ones eyes and ears to emerging evidence as to what is going on is a quick route to failure in the investment world I live in, but seems common in BTL world), I'm a bear. There's too big a disconnect between what's happening to banks/lenders - who have fund much of the euphoria in housing and clearly will not continue to do so to the same extent - and the strong beliefs and behaviour of a now shrinking majority of the population. Fundamentals will always out.

Perhaps the bulls out there should consider selling at least some of their property and buying bank shares, they'll get a much higher yield (7%+) with no voids, less effort, no problem tenants, no depreciation, no having to finding a plumber to do CORGI checks or solicitors/valuers/assorted other fee-charging parties, quicker access to their capital, a massive reduction in stamp duty and much lower transaction commissions. You could go on holiday, paid for with the extra yield, to occupy all the time you would free up. If you are right to be bullish, the banks will surely be fine, lending will grow, few losses will accrue on mortgages, the shares would surely go up. You could even get the gearing benefits from options at modest cost without the real downside risk. That's really not a recommendation, by the way! And if you don't think that a good idea, perhaps you might ponder whether there are any inconsistencies embedded in your thinking.

YOU should have been posting from the start.

Geez what a waste.

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