Why Prices Are Unlikely To Drop Significantly

[Panda]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

Abuse no, why abuse you, you are entitled to the opinion you hold. But you have a vested interest, so are not independent?

Its like a fish telling me fish fingers taste horrible?

Anyway, i could not disagree with you anymore, if as you say you have been reading this site for any length of time then you will have learnt something quite unique. House prices are so over priced that anything is possible?

You talk about London, i am talking globally, house prices are at insane levels globally, why because of cheap easy obtainable credit, it is as simple as that.

This is now drying up, so will halt house price growth for now, then this halt in cheap easy credit filters through globaly to the normal people, not the special ones in the city, the whole pyramid will collapse. We are now seeing this happen in the USA, and in parts of the UK. Next stop Australia.

You just cannot keep house prices permanently high forever, and they are too high in relation to the ability to service the loan to buy the house in relation to the abiilty to earn a wage to service the loan globally.

Unless we have a massive shift in wage growth, then the party has stopped for the VI's because if my house is worth one pence, and i want to sell it to you for one pence, but you do not have one pence, and no one will lend you one pence, i cannot sell you my house, and you cannot buy my house.

Sorry but you are totally incorrect, but you may find holes in my post?

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

On second thoughts, to me, you're a particularly greedy malignant parasite and an unwelcome form of contraception.

If this host is likely to die, you can be sure I'm taking a few of your kind with me first.

[Flat Bear]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

As you point out the US really hasn't seen any large falls in house prices but they never really had a problem did they?.

There is currently a global squeeze on credit and liquidity is starting to dry up. Although, as you say, it has not affected the UK yet you will have noticed a couple of banks connected to the mortgage and loan market in some difficulties and this is before the "credit crunch" has taken any real affect.

You will find that these huge bonuses will dry up completely and the people that have told you their bonuses for next year will be unaffected are misleading you.

London will see the brunt of this financial tightening and there has already been talk of cut backs job losses to an extent that will devastate the financial sector for over a decade. You have not got long to waite to see all this happening and many of the papers are already reporting some of the initial fallout.

The US may not have a major problem with overpriced housing but we sure do, as I suspect you already realize and why you searched out this site.

[cartimandua51]

Hi.

Good to have an EA on here. It would be good if you stuck around as then we would be getting some good anecdotal evidence on both sides rather than the bear picture that can be rather overpowering here.

I am not sure Manhattan is relevant though to most people here, in the same way that Kensington And Chelsea aren't either.

London is a large city and I suspect that what will happen there is similar to what happened last time, in that some areas will fare better than others over the next few years.

The ones that I think will do badly are going to be the places that used to be downmarket but are now "desirable". You would probably know those better than me, but I am thinking of places that were obviously cheaper 8-10 years ago and people came to because that's all they could afford at the time.

People here have said that it is turnover that will suffer first. Obviously a few months aren't necessarily an indicator, but have you noticed sales falling off at all recently?

We have been hearing of broken chains and some distressed sales of BTL portfolios.

Have those increased at all round your way?

Obviously in most places it is now a buyers market. Are you seeing that change at the moment?

It would be good to know.

Regards

Bob

For an an example (admittedly small-scale) have a look at the auctions section on

http://www.foxgrant.com/regionalauctions.asp

and clock the phenomenal difference between the 92% sold September Auction and yesterday's disastrous results (for the vendors, anyway)

[DoctorJ]

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c'mon guys even i sussed this out

or maybe I'm being a cynical paraniod tw*t.......

hmm. has the OP returned to answer his critics seeing as he believes so strongly in his predictions......nah didn't think so

[thedebtisreal]

Oh dear. Another hit and run bull.

[thedebtisreal]

Oh dear. Another hit and run bull.

[Fully Detached]

Oh dear. Another hit and run bull.

Oh dear. Another hit and run bull.

Say it again Sam - it sounds so good

[loafer]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

No abuse, but no agreement either.

As someone who works in the City, I can't emphasise how bad it is out there at the moment - I had major firm of lawyers offering me free advice today because they are so quiet...I have been invited by the head of a professional organisation to a symposium to discuss how to restart the markets...the discussion in the office is about how many will be made redundant, not whether it will happen...need I go on.

The final and damning conclusion is that markets never stop and plateau. It just doesn't happen. Emotion and sentiment drive markets, especially something like property, and you can expect it to get alot worse as mortgages reset and redundancies take hold.

I sold my house in South London in April, and keep a very close eye on the market (it is also my profession, although not EA), and IMHO values have already dropped something like 10%.

Finally, the issue of interest rates will help prevent wholesale repossessions, but the real thing in the market which has changed is lending standards, and it is these multiples, not the interest rates themselves, that will drive down affordability.

Nevertheless, welcome

[tigsrenting]

I just find it strange the amount of cretins that joined today. First one this morning around 10.30 am, that post was so sick it was deleted. Second also joined this morning same time, that post is now in the troll forum.

[Gone baby gone]

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c'mon guys even i sussed this out

or maybe I'm being a cynical paraniod tw*t.......

Yep, I'm sure we'll see more of this in the cold winter months as more people get turned down for a mortgage, more deals drop through and the City starts to shed jobs. Lots of potential EA customers visit these forums and the poor EAs must be getting lonely with only a fridge full of sparkling water and a 50" plasma TV to help them while away the days in between appointments.

Looking on the bright side for a moment, at least there will be a decent supply of low mileage new minis on the 2nd hand car market.

[Yoss]

I have heard of waving a red flag at a bull, but waving a grilled salmon at a bear is summit new to me

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

House prices are obviously going to crash hard in the UK. The writing is writ large on every wall. As for being realistic in your expectations, well, a bit of advice for you.. start tarting your CV up now - once the price spiral starts noone will be buying and your EA will have negative cashflow....

[otters]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

Good points but who knows? I think the best thing to do at the moment is just buy a boat, sail away and let the dust settle.

However just cos the BOE may cut rates it does not mean there will be an abundance of cheap money in the future.

[Wayo]

I've been reading this site for a while and thought it was time to introduce myself. I am an EA for one of the major chains (not saying which!) and I work in the South London area.

I think next year may see stagnation in the market, but the fact is that the City will be seeing another year of huge bonuses and there are no signs of any lay offs. The credit crunch is only affecting a minority of bankers and the rest are still pulling in the dough for their firms and themselves. Not to mention the lawyers who are as busy as ever.

The fact is that most people in London have not really been overstretching themselves to an insane level, so things are under control. A huge number of people are coming to the end of fixed rates, but the rates available now are not to bad and are likely to get better over the next 6 months as the BoE starts to cut rates.

I expect a torrent of abuse for this, but I'm just giving my point of view and hopefully making a few people a little more realistic in their expectations.

I'm afraid an awful lot of people are seriously overstretched; the oft quoted consumer debts figures speak for themselves. While there may be some good headlines remortgages available, they invariably come with massive product fees, upping the APR by 1-2%.

When I can rent a flat (not in London mind) fully furnished for less than 5% p.a of its so called market price, and look at a smaller new build around the corner offered for sale at 20% more, the BtL brigade and hence market is only going to the equator.

The great indebted are being squeezed by higher taxes, mortgages, food and fuel, which will badly hit their interest cover and their discretionary spending in the rest of the economy. There were some interesting retail sales figures released today. And the MEW tap is quickly being turned off.

With 8m economically inactive, and goodness knows how many more earning more £ from tax credits than their part time jobs, UK plc is looking peachy!

[Londonea]

hmm. has the OP returned to answer his critics seeing as he believes so strongly in his predictions......nah didn't think so

That's a bit unfair - one of me and over 30 people disagreeing with me. I would need a lot of time to keep up!

Unfortunately the market is still ticking over nicely so I have lots to do.

Things aren't as busy as they were, but the fact is there are fewer available properties as well in any given price bracket/area. So I see transaction numbers going down, but prices staying up.

[littlekitten]

I'm afraid an awful lot of people are seriously overstretched; the oft quoted consumer debts figures speak for themselves. While there may be some good headlines remortgages available, they invariably come with massive product fees, upping the APR by 1-2%.

When I can rent a flat (not in London mind) fully furnished for less than 5% p.a of its so called market price, and look at a smaller new build around the corner offered for sale at 20% more, the BtL brigade and hence market is only going to the equator.

The great indebted are being squeezed by higher taxes, mortgages, food and fuel, which will badly hit their interest cover and their discretionary spending in the rest of the economy. There were some interesting retail sales figures released today. And the MEW tap is quickly being turned off.

With 8m economically inactive, and goodness knows how many more earning more £ from tax credits than their part time jobs, UK plc is looking peachy!

hi i'm new here. i have lurked for a while. am waiting to buy a place myself. i dont share all the negativity i see here. i think people are prone to overexaggerate what they see when their views are reinforced by those with the same viewpoint.

i think the market will cool next year and hopefully i will get a payrise so i can afford to buy! maybe i need to change jobs to something more well paidl

[Panda]

That's a bit unfair - one of me and over 30 people disagreeing with me. I would need a lot of time to keep up!

Unfortunately the market is still ticking over nicely so I have lots to do.

Things aren't as busy as they were, but the fact is there are fewer available properties as well in any given price bracket/area. So I see transaction numbers going down, but prices staying up.

I think we all deserve a reply, no hurry, we did reply to you, looking forward to some in depth analysis of the reply posts, rather than a typical property Bull VI estate agent pissed off because transactions globally cannot go one forever at the ever inflated costs applied by people like you.

[Fully Detached]

Mods - just an observation. I'm guessing the moving of the thread and the Multi-ID Troll branding is due to the OP posting with two names on the same IP?

Totally agree with the actions if this is the case, but I think in cases like these it would help to post a quick explanation - there are more people then ever coming to this site now, and to some who haven't formed a view point yet, it could look like victimisation of someone with a different point of view?

[The Moderators]

Mods - just an observation. I'm guessing the moving of the thread and the Multi-ID Troll branding is due to the OP posting with two names on the same IP?

Correct.

[we the sheeple]

The EA's assumption that the City Boys will keep buying is brilliant.

These people buy into rising asset classes. Now UK property has peaked, they will move on to next rising asset bubble.

[godless]

Hello ramper troll, welcome!!!......How long do you intend on staying, hopefully for more than a couple of posts.

[Disillusioned]

Correct.

Sounded a bit like Telometer to me.

[TeddyBear]

Correct.

If two different EAs from the same office posted would it come up as multi-ID? Just wondering if the address seen is one for the office or if each PC would have its own?

[CrashHorizon]

Never been in the troll forums before...

Thought would check it out...........................

mmmm.....................................................

taps fingers............................................

looks out window.....................................

sees tumbleweed roll past........................

MIGHTY QUIET IN HERE THESE DAYS!!!

MHUUUUUU HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

CRASH ON!!