The Truth About This Site

[manabouttobuyaflat]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

[PotNoodle]

Any decent site would be balanced

Yes, indeedy.

And so it should be.

Buy a flat ..... Don't buy a flat .....

There you go.

[nmarks]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

Hi Kirsty!

[tara747]

Firstly, we are not out to 'prove' a HPC, merely examine the factors currently in place which could lead to one - and will, in my view.

Secondly, all points of view are welcome and I for one mourn the absence of bulls these days.

Thirdly - AWOOOOOOOOOOOGA

Edit: forgot to say, good luck with your house purchase if that is what you decide to do. This is just a website, I am sure you will do your own research and make up your own mind. All the best

Edited November 15, 2007 by tara747

[tara747]

Hi Kirsty!

[Mike1045]

When you walk down the street and a gang of hoodies waving knifes about are stood in your path do you carry on walking?

You don’t know what’s going to happen but you’ve got a bloody good idea its not going to be pretty

Welcome and please feel free to offer a more balanced view.

[yellerkat]

...I for one mourn the absence of bulls these days.

Yes, where have all the bulls gone? Most mysterious...

[yellerkat]

PS OP, you might want to ponder on this graph.

[Mike1045]

Yes, where have all the bulls gone? Most mysterious...

To buy property what else. Now is the perfect time to buy!

Edited November 15, 2007 by Mike1045

[Extradry Martini]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

I used see a lot posts like yours on the Singing Pig website before I was banned (for being too convincing in my bear case I think). Two points to make here:

Firstly, You are right, no one knows exactly what is going to happen, but we can get a good idea of the rough trends. How? Through a science called “macro-economics”.

The second point is that there are no bullish arguments at the present time which might stand up to anything other than a cursory scrutiny. (If you have any, I’d love to hear them). The majority o f “bulls” out there aren’t really “bullish” in its proper sense as they haven’t studied the market from a valuation perspective or the outlook for house prices (I do know this as I have spent a long time in “bullish” websites) – they are just hoping that prices go up because that is a) what would suit decisions they have already taken and mean that they don’t have to admit they were wrong to make the decision in the way they did in the first place.

[ukdaasfan]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

I hate to tell you this. But if you want a balanced opionion, could I suggest a forum calls HOUSE PRICE CRASH isn't the place for you.

[Bloo Loo]

so its a crime to have an opinion- well, this must be Gordon Browns first post- now frack off

[yaakov]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

There are a few rather extreme doom mongers here however perhaps you should read the mainstream press now which is also becoming more and more bearish.

There are good reasons to think the UK economy is in deep trouble due to high levels of public and private debt during a credit crisis. If you can't see how this affects the housing market then there is little anyone can do to help you. It is perfectly rational to look at these factors and to get pretty concerned about our future prospects.

[Drac]

manabouttobuyaflat

Gordy, not a good name, but this is better?

MANIWANTABUTTNOTATWAT

[Mr Nice]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

if you have checked you grocery bill lately, or your petrol receipts etc, you will notice that prices for just about everything are a lot higher these days.

I think food alone went up 10-15 percent this year.

that means your money is worth 10-15 percent less, and your house that has "plateaued" is already worth 10-15 percent less.

that's ALREADY a crash.

at this point, imo, this site isn't exactly about IF there is going to be a crash, that's pretty obvious by now, but more about how bad it will ultimately turn out to be.

[ukdaasfan]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

Vetted. You don't read this site much obviously. Do they vet anything ?

As for Naive and blinkered some of us have a bit of experiencein this and economics generally. I started seriousyl studying then housing market and the economy in general in 1993. Got so good at it they even gave me a degree in Economics in the end. I woudl hazrd a guess there are otheres with much more experience at this than me. IF you find this gloomy then you have not grasped the simple reason we need a crash. There needs to be a realignment in values and expectations. there will always be time slike this. However, in a few years time (OK in 10 years time) when you have your house and you go from owning 10% of it to 50% without having done anything... you'll be back on this website likea shot. Trust me.

[VacantPossession]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

Oh come now, don't get paranoid. Your views are hardly ground breaking or original are they? They simply reflect the vast, sheep like sentiments of the majority of the population. I don't think you quite realise that a fair number of posters on this site don't just think there will be a crash, they actually want it to happen. Why? Because the only people who might suffer from it have ALREADY made, by and large, a huge profit out of housing and expect to continue to do so. A drop in house prices would stop this happening, but would also open up a lot of opportunities for those, including yourself, who are shut out of the market. Moreover a substantial decrease in house prices would end the cycle of property for profit which has ruined the entire market except for those greedy few who have already gained handsomely from it.

A reduction in property prices will not hurt many unless they over-stretched themselves, got greedy or took part in idiotic fantasy schemes which could only work in an obscenely rising market. For those already owning a home and not expecting, as of right, a further profit, they would be unaffected since any new property they might wish to move to will have a commensurate reduction in price too. One exception is some first time buyers who were silly enough to buy expensively when any degree of independent research would have told them they entered the market at a critical and risky time. But this number of "sufferers" would be enormously outweighed by literally millions of others who at last would be able to buy a modest home without crippling themselves.

I think if you took a bit more care to read the many threads here with some discernment, you'll see that there is a huge variety of abilities, views, opinions and a great deal of interesting knowledge recorded by some quite clever people. I think what you object to is that you are perhaps keyed in entirely to the conventional wisdom about housing and perhaps have become, like many, so brain-washed that you cannot accept there might be a different way of thinking.

But even if that wasn't the case, there are now sufficient numbers of conventional investors, "experts", economists and intelligent voices throughout the UK and the Europe, who are actually coming round to the way of thinking this site, which has been a loan voice for too long, is promoting. But you won't find them on the BBC or everyday press cuttings, though step by step the conventional media is slowly waking up.

VP

Edited November 15, 2007 by VacantPossession

[Ponzi]

How old are you? Wake up and get with it dude! Go to Youtube and listen to Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and George Soros - learn about cycles, inflation and the behaviour of crowds - do it now.

You want balance then go to the BBC (well sort of) or some other media channel - what were you expecting on this site? (clue: look at the URL).

Go ahead by a flat. Perhaps you should ask these questions to the vendor/solicitor...

How much are the service charges

What is the service charge estimate for year 07/08

Is there or will there be a sinking fund

What are the neighbours like? (it can be noisy in flats)

Reserved parking?

How much is the ground rent?

I work for managing agents - we are very busy sending out arrears notices to the BTL brigade.

Be careful.

Buying a house in a few short years may be a much better decision.

[Guest pioneer31]

I have never seen such a load of [email protected] as I have done on this site.

I am a first-time buyer, and I am struggling to get on the property ladder. So it is very much in my interests for the housing market to 'crash'. But the truth is that no-one knows what the housing market is going to do. Yes, it may go down a little bit in the short term, yes it may go down a lot in the medium term, yes it might continue to go up.

Nobody knows. That's the point. What I do know however is that this site is (in my opinion) targeted at one thing, and one thing only - predicting a major house price crash. So much so that indications to suggest that the housing market is not going to crash are largely dismissed, or not even mentioned in the first place.

Any decent site would be balanced, and would offer material in a manner that weighs out the pros, and the cons, of any particular argument or point of view. Any site which starts off with the objective of proving one thing alone (a house price crash in this instance) is off to a false start.

In my view, the contents and purpose of this site is nothing but to inflict doom and gloom on those who are already on the housing ladder, and to mislead and give false hopes to those who aren't. And those who regularly post on this site with the same targeted views are just as naive and blinkered as the editors.

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

(And I bet my views above are vetted and not even posted on the site in the first place)

Interesting......

If nobody know what's going to happen, then how can we be giving false hope?

[A.steve]

Get a life people - stop feeling sorry for yourselves, find something to be optimistic about, and stop inflicting your armageddon doom and gloom on the rest of us.

:-) There are some with pretty extreme viewpoints, granted... I question some of the more unlikely aspects of their predictions where the evidence suggests flawed analysis.

I am optimistic. I do expect a sharp decline in house prices over the next year or so... maybe not a big move to the average price reported by the major indices, but I expect houses I'd consider living in to come on the market priced such that I can make a serious offer within 12 to 18 months. The vendors will likely not make a loss - but I won't be stitched up with a trebling of prices since 1997.

I'm encouraged that Sterling seems to be weakening - at least - as this will likely improve Britain as a competitor - maybe even encouraging on-shore spending in a reversal of wildly inefficient outsourcing which has been rampant in recent years.

I am looking forward to higher food and fuel costs... I hope that these will encourage a slower pace of life... Maybe even 'respect' and 'accountability' when debts can't be forever put-off.

I realise that many people will be caught out by the recession which we face - though I'm reassured that, while I've no trust whatsoever in government, at least we have a level of competence in setting our fiscal policy - not that it's a get-out-of-jail-free card.

Lastly, and this bit makes me most optimistic, I've noticed that "opportunity" has vastly diminished over the last 10 years - an end to this economic cycle... no matter how painful... provides the essential opportunity to wipe stupidity from the slate and start to work to build our futures productively.

Edited November 15, 2007 by A.steve

[ukdaasfan]

if you have checked you grocery bill lately, or your petrol receipts etc, you will notice that prices for just about everything are a lot higher these days.

I think food alone went up 10-15 percent this year.

that means your money is worth 10-15 percent less, and your house that has "plateaued" is already worth 10-15 percent less.

that's ALREADY a crash.

at this point, imo, this site isn't exactly about IF there is going to be a crash, that's pretty obvious by now, but more about how bad it will ultimately turn out to be.

Value of money has not gone down 15%. Yes food is more expensive (i shop at lidls for my basicsactually and everything seems to be the same or cheaper :-))

Other things have got cheaper. Technology prices have come down, telecoms services have been reduced.

I don't know how much cash you spend on food, but as a percentage of my income it's not a lot.

[we the sheeple]

Perfect counter-balance to the lazy-boy media, reporting drivel day after day.

If you've ever had first hand experience of a "news story", i'd bet you wouldn't recognise it from the resulting media version.

Just look at the Merv King statement yesterday, basically warning that the economy will be [email protected]@ next year. Most of the papers then ran unsupported stories saying, 3 interest rate cuts next year, guaranteed, yippee!

[dubsie]

The purpose of this site is to debate whether the current housing bubble is going to burst. There are those that insist that property will lose more than 50% of it's real value, whilst most of us know that the chances of this happening are very slim they are entitled to there opinion.

The fact is property is a hot subject and many economic factors determine its value. We've just seen probably the biggest credit crisis since the 1940s, yet the property market is still very solid. Big falls are marginal and on the whole relate to new build inner city living developments. Family homes are still rising in price and still selling fast.

The BOE England is going for a half a percent cut in interest rates in the coming weeks and with interest rates still very low, this is likely to reduce the amount of debt problems and restore some confidence in the housing market and the greater economy.

Based on the economy improving rather than getting worse, it's very likely that we'll see a rise in average property prices come Feb 08.

[Guest pioneer31]

Value of money has not gone down 15%. Yes food is more expensive (i shop at lidls for my basicsactually and everything seems to be the same or cheaper :-))

Other things have got cheaper. Technology prices have come down, telecoms services have been reduced.

I don't know how much cash you spend on food, but as a percentage of my income it's not a lot.

Over a 12mth period, how much do you spend on food?

Now compare with how much you spend on technology, in the same period.

[Guest pioneer31]

The purpose of this site is to debate whether the current housing bubble is going to burst. There are those that insist that property will lose more than 50% of it's real value, whilst most of us know that the chances of this happening are very slim they are entitled to there opinion.

The fact is property is a hot subject and many economic factors determine its value. We've just seen probably the biggest credit crisis since the 1940s, yet the property market is still very solid. Big falls are marginal and on the whole relate to new build inner city living developments. Family homes are still rising in price and still selling fast.

The BOE England is going for a half a percent cut in interest rates in the coming weeks and with interest rates still very low, this is likely to reduce the amount of debt problems and restore some confidence in the housing market and the greater economy.

Based on the economy improving rather than getting worse, it's very likely that we'll see a rise in average property prices come Feb 08.

'us'?

and how do you know?