Cpi @ 1.7% And Reality Compared

[ockham]

No, I see why you think I'm making a mistake, but that is my inflation rate for outgoings. It's just calculated by subtracting what I have left at the end of the month from what I know I have earnt from my job. The snag is that if I get random extra money, it shows up as negative expenditure, rather than additional income. Which is why the figures are nonsense post-August.

OK now I see. A household account is a little more complicated than that. You have to reconcile each item of expenditure to an account, representing the same kind of thing each month. Any left over is 'savings'.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

all,

just think for a minute about all the knock-on stats bourne from the official immigration figures. They have just been amended , so will all the other stats, housing, benefits etc etc, be amended to reflect those stats that they got wrong then?

What about all the reports & monetary policy that has been implemented based on these stats, local councils & nhs hospitals/doctors etc, trying to kepp on budget allocated for x number of immigrants, when that is then changed to y. Do they get the money backdated ? if so who pays for that then ?

just think how many people have been arguing the toss, stating that the immigration figures do not tally with what they are seeing on the streets, now add that idea to your own followings on the official flation stats.

I use this as an example as it's just happened and is very relevant to my argument.

not in anyway intended as an immigration thread etc etc

also, lets not forget about the eddie george affair eh ? deliberately fuelled the housing boom by lowering IR's, this is the ex governor of the BoE ffs.

I am off out for a bit now, I will pick up any replies later.

[silver surfer]

This is great news. I'm sure they'll therefore be more than happy to have their pensions indexed by CPI when they retire, and until then their salaries as well.

It's also great news for investors. It means that UK Index-Linked gilts are providing a virtually risk-free real rate of return which makes searching elsewhere for yield pretty much moot. It's amazing that the world's investors haven't caught on yet.

My pension's linked to RPI not CPI, at least up to a 5% cap each year. I've never encountered any CPI related pension.

Personally I always put the full allowance every year into NS&I RPI linked savings, many on this forum think it's a great deal and do likewise.

[silver surfer]

There you have it exactly. Anything made in a SE Asia sweatshop is rapidly falling in price (shirts, foreign made shoes). Any goods or services produced directly here (council tax which reflects local services, season ticket, education, dentist &c) is rapidly increasing in cost.

My plumber told me he earns £20k a month. Think of it. £240k a year, little or no tax paid. That is also connected with HPI, because I am bidding for his services against all the flippers and BTL'ers who are plumbing up their newly acquired goldmines.

So, surely we can agree that this disparity exists. And because of it, personal inflation rates vary wildly. Anyone who likes fast food, changes their Ipod or telly a lot, and buys their clothes from Tescos is seeing their costs falling year on year. Anyone who uses a plumber or builder, or likes their teeth done occasionally, or has educational needs (I have teenagers to support - education costs massive) is seeing their income rapidly eroded.

Surely we can agree on this. The question is, what represents the average expenditure? I suspect this is where least of the statistical work has been done.

Well, I was actually thinking of my cheap and skilful Polish plumber when I made this comment, but I take your point!

However, you are absolutely right that individual items within the inflation basket can be moving in very different directions, and as everyone has different spending profiles then it's likely there'll be many different perceptions of inflation without there being any one "true" measure.

[FreeTrader]

Personally I always put the full allowance every year into NS&I RPI linked savings, many on this forum think it's a great deal and do likewise.

As do I, and I've said so before on this forum.

I think you missed my point, but then again I was being facetious.

[davidhpc]

I am not sure why you are suggesting that people who see their shopping rise 14% shouldn't question a CPI figure of 1.8%. When they are also seeing their other expenditure rise dramatically also.

as ex-PM John Major said recently "Now, if No 10 tells you Friday follows Thursday, wise men check the calendar."

[silver surfer]

I think you missed my point, but then again I was being facetious.

I precisely got your point, that's just how I respond to facetiousness

[Ethel]

Think about this for a moment. Your personal inflation rate isn't likely to match mine, simply because we spend our money on different things.

Yes. Apparently you don't eat.

[silver surfer]

Yes. Apparently you don't eat.

Or maybe an allotment?

[Vespasian]

I think the important thing to take this into account when calculating CPI

Take 10 items then add YOY % price increases and divide by 10

so

2.2%+1.3%+5.7%+4.1%+0.7%+7.8%+2.1%+9.4%+1.5%+2.9%

equals 37.7%

divide by 10

equals 1.8%

[Randall Herbert]

On the 3rd of December 2006, I sent a food parcel to my daughter at UNI

It consisted of a few basic foods to keep her at her studies, no alcohol or ipods

The December 2006 figure for the food was £30.86 @ a large national chain supermarket

Here is exactly the same basket of food of today

November 2007 £34.98 Thats up 13.36% for a full 12 months- this is a full actual YOY figure

THAT IS NEARLY 8 TIMES THE CPI

If you add 50 litres of 4 star to the same comparison (same supermarket) the % increase rose to 14.59%

And Vis are asking for interest rate cuts!

Its no surprise that your figure of 14% is almost exactly the same level as the continuing scandalous money supply growth at 13%.

Inflation is not 1.7%!!!!

Thats NU LAbout tossers for you

[Bloo Loo]

" I think the important thing to take this into account when calculating CPI

Take 10 items then add YOY % price increases and divide by 10 "

you MUST work for the government vasparian

Edited November 3, 2007 by Bloo Loo

[Ethel]

Or maybe an allotment?

That must be some allotment. Livestock too?

Do you grow your own wheat, grind your own flour and make your own bread too?

[Its time to buy]

DR EVIL holds world to Ransom- but figure laughably is eaten away by inflation

RANSOM: $1 MILLION DOLLARS

[A.steve]

The actual data may be correct ... Its the basket of goods thats the p%ss take.

Tell me honestly that you think that the contents of the CPI basket is a fair reflection of non discretionary inflation rates ... ie those that apply to pensioners.

NO-ONE claims CPI is a measure of inflation for non-discretionary items. Quite the converse.

CPI is a measure of inflation for trade with Europe. Nothing more. Nothing less.

The only substantial lie, in my opinion, is when Gordon Brown said that CPI was a "better" measure of inflation for the purposes of controlling interest rates - because, clearly, it was and is not. Even Eurostat, the body who invented the statistic, say that is is not a good exclusive measure of general inflation.

[ockham]

Well, I was actually thinking of my cheap and skilful Polish plumber when I made this comment, but I take your point!

However, you are absolutely right that individual items within the inflation basket can be moving in very different directions, and as everyone has different spending profiles then it's likely there'll be many different perceptions of inflation without there being any one "true" measure.

This misleadingly gives the impression that the different items are randomly dispersed around the mean, whereas the dispersion in fact is very systematic. Because it systematically understates the increase in cost of goods and services produced here, it systematically affects certain groups of people rather than others. It systematically affects people supporting families, who are not on benefits. But that is the NuLab agenda, of course.

[Bloo Loo]

NO-ONE claims CPI is a measure of inflation for non-discretionary items. Quite the converse.

CPI is a measure of inflation for trade with Europe. Nothing more. Nothing less.

The only substantial lie, in my opinion, is when Gordon Brown said that CPI was a "better" measure of inflation for the purposes of controlling interest rates - because, clearly, it was and is not. Even Eurostat, the body who invented the statistic, say that is is not a good exclusive measure of general inflation.

I disagree- it is quoted widely in the public domain as the INFLATION RATE: everyone knows its the inflation rate that the BoE has to control.

If this is NOT the inflation rate, then the Government obvously enjoy the ridicule it receives because peoples weekly shop is going through the roof.

[Randall Herbert]

I disagree- it is quoted widely in the public domain as the INFLATION RATE: everyone knows its the inflation rate that the BoE has to control.

If this is NOT the inflation rate, then the Government obvously enjoy the ridicule it receives because peoples weekly shop is going through the roof.

Exactly!

Even RPI is a load of old crap too!!

WE ARE ALL BING CONNED! plain and simple

How long will we all put up with these dangerous NU LAbour tossers? Can't be anyone with any intelligence left who would actually vote for these cut throat murderers again?

[silver surfer]

This misleadingly gives the impression that the different items are randomly dispersed around the mean, whereas the dispersion in fact is very systematic. Because it systematically understates the increase in cost of goods and services produced here, it systematically affects certain groups of people rather than others. It systematically affects people supporting families, who are not on benefits. But that is the NuLab agenda, of course.

Oh no! We're drifting back towards conspiracy theories.

[Flat Bear]

Its no surprise that your figure of 14% is almost exactly the same level as the continuing scandalous money supply growth at 13%.

Inflation is not 1.7%!!!!

Thats NU LAbout tossers for you

You are correct

Inflation of the money supply is around 13% which will at some stage show up as increases in prices of goods and services such as say house prices, costs of a hair cut etc. etc.

CPI measures selected goods and services much of it has had negative figures over the past decade. The CPI figure gives a false measure of true inflation especially when so much of the basket has been so carfully selected and manipulated to give false figures. Unfortunately prices on imported items have seen increases in recent months and it is only the strong pound that has been helping mask true inflation. They dont even have house prices as a constitute of these figures which in all logic would be the most important item of all.

How anyone can defend these figures is beyond me.

[OzzMosiz]

Bloo,

go over to http://www.overinflated.com sign up and post your anecdotal, I would really appreciate a posting from someones personal experiences to rubbish the inflation figures.

Cheers

Ozz

[Ethel]

They dont even have house prices as a constitute of these figures which in all logic would be the most important item of all.

When house prices fall they will probably suddenly decide to include them.

How anyone can defend these figures is beyond me.

Likewise.

[A.steve]

I disagree- it is quoted widely in the public domain as the INFLATION RATE: everyone knows its the inflation rate that the BoE has to control.

If this is NOT the inflation rate, then the Government obvously enjoy the ridicule it receives because peoples weekly shop is going through the roof.

CPI is reported as being "headline" inflation (i.e. inflation without further clarification) _because_, in 2003, Brown declared that CPI was what the government and BoE were to assume Inflation to mean.

I think that was dangerous, corrupt and dishonest. This doesn't make CPI claim to be anything other than what it is... It does, however - by shallow media reporting and comments by the ill-informed - confuse the general public about the nature of inflation as it affects their daily lives.

The problem is not that CPI is wrong - the problem is that we shouldn't be controlling our economy exclusively with respect to retail commodity trade within Europe. We should *also* have a domestic fiscal policy.

[A.steve]

When house prices fall they will probably suddenly decide to include them.

It is *extremely* unlikely that CPI will be extended to include the cost of buying houses. Eurostat have been trying to work out how to bring real-estate into the metric for years and have made no progress.

There are other metrics already available which *do* include the cost of shelter. It would be trivial for government to change the measure of headline inflation to be another metric... just as Brown did in 2003.

[Bloo Loo]

CPI is reported as being "headline" inflation (i.e. inflation without further clarification) _because_, in 2003, Brown declared that CPI was what the government and BoE were to assume Inflation to mean.

I think that was dangerous, corrupt and dishonest. This doesn't make CPI claim to be anything other than what it is... It does, however - by shallow media reporting and comments by the ill-informed - confuse the general public about the nature of inflation as it affects their daily lives.

The problem is not that CPI is wrong - the problem is that we shouldn't be controlling our economy exclusively with respect to retail commodity trade within Europe. We should *also* have a domestic fiscal policy.

its a bit similar to Gordons Golden rule for the economy- if the figures dont fit, move the start and/or the end dates for the economic cycle so it all fits!

Genius