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2007! Not A Lot Happened Shocker!


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With the exception of the five interest rate rises this year not a lot has happened. Take away all the Hype, bluff and 8ull5hit from the forums and i feel 2007 is another disappointing year for the housing market. Did a house price crash happen? No. Did a house price crash start? No. Have prices in my town gone down? No. Does it look likely to happen? No

From a housing market perspective 2007 = Non event.

I am still reading the secret agent blog and Mondays entry just goes to show that no one really knows what is going to happen.

http://www.agentsdiary.blogspot.com/

Quote "After all this time I still don’t know which way prices will go and I’m not sure anyone else does."

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Agreed.

If you look at http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php#statistics you will see that uk average house prices have risen in 2007.

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website.........................................Annual Change (%)

FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)................8.80

Halifax House Price Index................................10.70

Home.co.uk (England and Wales)......................5.90

Land Registry Monthly Report............................9.40

Nationwide House Price Index...........................9.00

DCLG House Price Index..................................11.40

Rightmove House Price Index...........................10.40

Being objective, we have to say there is no house price crash. In some of the minds of the people who post on this forum, there is indeed a crash happening. In fact it started this year, and the year before and the year before that, but statistically, house prices have continued their incredible ascent, year after year. Even interest rates rises couldnt stop this ascent.

Dont even get me started on London's house prices. :o

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Guest mSparks
Did a house price crash start?

Erm, yes?

‘For f***s sake.’ Spits T in a rare show of passion as he slams the telephone handset onto its base. And we all turn expectantly, knowing he hasn’t just been told of an improved car list.

‘Tosser, wants to drop his offer by ten grand. Says the papers are predicting price falls and he doesn’t want to get caught.’

true, it ends with the 'five grand more' but

a) why pay £120,000 for a house, when you can pick up one across the street for £40,000 at auction

B) "And we all turn expectantly" = The fear is starting to bite EA's and sellers alike, last year it was all 'HPC will never happen" - its all part of the process

c) Theres an awful lot of better things you can do with your hard earned money than buy a house, and most of them have nothing to do with the UK.

Edited by mSparks
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sortofsilver,

If you had posted this a year ago, I might have agreed with you.

I am an expat living in the States. I too was depressed about the situation with sky high property prices. I thought it would never end, but it did.

The crash in the US is in full swing. I have since changed my mind about buying a house in the States due to the lack of affordable health care.

This year has been different for the UK. We have seen the first run on a bank that has not happened since the 1860s. Housebuilder stocks have lost close to 50% or more of their value. There have been five interest rate increases. Inflation is rampant. A credit crunch has limited the amount of money people can borrow. There have already been some month on month price falls.

Perhaps more importantly, negative sentiment towards the housing market and economy is rife.

So, don't give up. I feel that the situation is like a roller coaster - we're at the highest point and now the only way is down - with frightening speed.

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Guest An Bearin Bui
With the exception of the five interest rate rises this year not a lot has happened. Take away all the Hype, bluff and 8ull5hit from the forums and i feel 2007 is another disappointing year for the housing market. Did a house price crash happen? No. Did a house price crash start? No. Have prices in my town gone down? No. Does it look likely to happen? No

From a housing market perspective 2007 = Non event.

I am still reading the secret agent blog and Mondays entry just goes to show that no one really knows what is going to happen.

http://www.agentsdiary.blogspot.com/

Quote "After all this time I still don’t know which way prices will go and I’m not sure anyone else does."

Who's the prat in the blog link? "Secret agent"?? I think he should a.) do his own bloody laundry and b.) get a real job.

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This is a classic 'end of bull market' phase, where all the conditions around the price of houses deteriorates rapidly, yet there seems to be this momentary pause where they just defy gravity and hang in mid air. Like Wile-E-Coyote in denial for a moment as he refuses to accept there's nothing but miles of air holding him up over the edge of the canyon.

..that's where we are right now. And we all know how it goes from here..

Edited by drminky
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A housing crash isn't like a stock market crash. It consists of years of small MoM negatives, with a few small MoM positives thrown in here and there.

I agree we can't say it's started till we see more consistent MoM negatives.

But I don't agree that there is no evidence that one is starting (last 2 months lots of small MoM negatives outside London)

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Its Game Over!, Estate agents herald the end of 18-month house market downturn

Estate agents herald the end of 18-month house market downturn

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0...1594626,00.html

Estate agents herald the end of 18-month house market downturn

· Prices expected to rise before Christmas

· Expansion in employment buoying up confidence

Larry Elliott Economics editor

Tuesday October 18, 2005

The Guardian

Britain's estate agents today call an end to the 18-month downturn in the housing market with a prediction that property will buck the trend of a weakening economy and post an increase in prices in the run-up to Christmas.

The monthly survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says the August cut in interest rates, coupled with the possibility of further easing by the Bank of England, has helped to boost demand for homes.

Article continues

Although prices continued to slip back last month, the pace of decline was the slowest since the summer of 2004, the RICS says. In the three months to September, the number of estate agents reporting a fall in prices exceeded those reporting a rise by 21 percentage points. That compared to a 25-point gap in August and a low point of 46 percentage points in May this year.

"Against a background of firming demand, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts, surveyors are expecting house prices to rise marginally over the next three months. The turnaround in surveyor confidence, becoming positive for the first time in 1½ years, adds to evidence that the housing market is stabilising", the RICS says.

London, which tends to be the harbinger of price movements across the rest of the country, saw static house prices over the past three months, after a period of decline that began in mid-2004 when Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, sent out a warning to potential homebuyers about the high cost of property.

Elsewhere in the country, the picture was patchier. Price falls abated in East Anglia and the north, while in Scotland prices continued to rise. The pace of price falls increased slightly in the south-east and Wales, while the market turned down again in the north-west after two months of stability.

In the UK as a whole, the RICS says enquiries from new buyers rose in September for the fourth successive month. Estate agents warned, however, that the signs of strengthening demand were modest, having been stimulated by the cut in interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5% in August.

Ian Perry, RICS housing spokesperson, said: "While sellers asking for unrealistic prices are still struggling to find potential buyers, they are beginning to feel more confident as fears of a sharp fall in house prices have largely dissipated. The amount of new property coming on to the market fell in September for the first time in 1½ years.

"The upturn in demand and improved outlook on interest rates has led surveyors to predict house price rises for the first time since early 2004, though these are expected to be small. RICS expects the recovery in activity to be sustained due to continued expansion in employment, which bodes well for a stable housing market."

Other recent reports on the property market have also provided evidence that a slow recovery in prices could be happening. The Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, reported a 1.2% rise in prices last month, following a 1.9% increase in August.

heard it all before

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Yep. Alot has happened - I'll give you that.

But still no HPC.

This is just ignorant and I am getting sick of posts like this. HPC dosnt happen overnight The important events that will lead to the inevitable HPC only happened in the last few months. Anyone who expects that the consequence of those events will be a HPC the very next month is either misguided or a moron. It will take time for the consequences to feed in to the market.

It was only this month that there were record mortgage application refusals, and it was only this month that mortgage companies started to really raise both there rates and more importantly there lending criteria, Libor is up again so dont expect cheap money any time soon. These are all huge events but are to recent for indexes to be showing the results of these events. In a few months they will and HPC will be confirmed.

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What do you think is going to happen a 20% over night fall like the stock market?

No.

But over the last few years, people on this forum have taken many news stories (just as you are now) and saying, "This is it. Its here." The only difference now is that the news stories are different.

If you look back on this forum to Oct 2006, you will see similar predictions stating that the HPC has begun because of NewsStory1, NewsStory2 and NewsStory3. Subsequently, when someone states, "Hang on, there is no HPC." That comment is met with much vitriol (just like the 2 replies above this post), stating that a HPC takes time.

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Source website.........................................Annual Change (%)

FT House Price Index (Acadametrics)................8.80

Halifax House Price Index................................10.70

Home.co.uk (England and Wales)......................5.90

Land Registry Monthly Report............................9.40

Nationwide House Price Index...........................9.00

DCLG House Price Index..................................11.40

Rightmove House Price Index...........................10.40

:blink: Rear view mirror or what! Come back after Christmas when the large MOM figures of last Autumn drop out and see what the YOY figures look like then!

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:blink: Rear view mirror or what! Come back after Christmas when the large MOM figures of last Autumn drop out and see what the YOY figures look like then!

is that a prediction that HPI will not be positive after xmas - I can not see any reason why people won't start to buy again after the holidays - I predict that hpi will stay positive for at least half of next year - this year was boring - so will the next in my opinion - unless that elusive trigger visits

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is that a prediction that HPI will not be positive after xmas - I can not see any reason why people won't start to buy again after the holidays - I predict that hpi will stay positive for at least half of next year - this year was boring - so will the next in my opinion - unless that elusive trigger visits

Look to the past (or should I say look to the post I was replying too!) I was simply stating that the HPI YOY figures being quoted by Sunama will soon become a thing of the past unless we get some very big months for the rest of this year to sustain them at current levels. :P

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Nothing happened! Where have you all been?

We had a run on a bank - which was the fastest growing mortgage lender in the UK.

We also had a credit crunch so severe that banks will still not lend to each other for fear of defaults.

We also had an explosion in commodity prices that will drive inflation higher and make it impossible for central banks to rapidly cut rates.

We also had a rapid rise in mortgage defaults a collapse in sales volumes for houses and the first sign of a reduction is actual average sold prices in many parts of the country.

We also had an election called off, the introduction of HIPs and massive change in CGT and IHT that directly impacts house buying and selling decisions for millions of people.

Something is definitely happening.

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There's an interesting article here on USA's msn about housing in the States:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banki...ndForYears.aspx

The reason I mention it in this thread is that the figures they give seem to indicate quite a time lag between house prices peaking and then bottoming out. If I've understood it correctly it seems to have taken on average around 3 years for this to happen. So, if you accept that house prices have now peaked it might also be the case that here in the UK it'll take some time for things to bottom out.

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This is a classic 'end of bull market' phase, where all the conditions around the price of houses deteriorates rapidly, yet there seems to be this momentary pause where they just defy gravity and hang in mid air. Like Wile-E-Coyote in denial for a moment as he refuses to accept there's nothing but miles of air holding him up over the edge of the canyon.

..that's where we are right now. And we all know how it goes from here..

And permapessimists have been saying this on here since 2004.

Why is everyone on here so bl00dy definite one way or tuther, cause I aint?

As I keep saying, property cannot be compared to pure investments. It has a considerable investment component but also has a definite utility value to us all where as a stock or lump of gold has no immediate tangible use for the average joe.

Dont forget LLs will swoop in at the first sign of rate drops.

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