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Guess Nr's Share Price When Markets Close On Monday

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100p

(I could short NR now as i have just opened a spreadbetting account. I have shorted the FTSE, but it went up, if i was to sell now i would be 160 quid out of pocket, lol)

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if there is any truth is the statement from that treasury person then around 8p, if it's still trading

I've just opened a Spread Betting Account too.

Am thinking of shorting the FTSE soon, and the DOW when it maybe gets to 14400.

On another note:

Has anyone succesfully hedged on DOW and FTSE? i.e. Buy one and sell other, at the correct ratios (~2:1) since they are so very closely linked. The idea being to try and catch big swings in the market, so if FTSE loses 200 points (which you'd have say a SELL bet on) , and DOW say lost 400 (which you'd have a BUY bet on). With stop losses set on each at 100 pts for FTSE and 200 pts for DOW, it would mean my buy bet would be cancelled at 200 points loss, and my sell bet would continue, meaning a profit of 100 pts multiplied by stake.

Up until a big swing or fluctuation occurs, you just keep both bets open, adjusting the stop losses appropriately at daily intervals. The idea being that your spread bet account floats at around the zero profit mark whilst the market has its normal daily fluctuations, but when theres a big jump or fall on bad news then thats when you take profit. Meaning you don't have to call the market at the start of the day, you have just set yourself up for large up swings or down swings.

Is this concept fundamentally flawed somewhere? Obviously if the stop losses are not appropriately set, then they could catch in the normal swings of the day.

Why do people think NR will fall again?

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I've just opened a Spread Betting Account too.

Am thinking of shorting the FTSE soon, and the DOW when it maybe gets to 14400.

On another note:

Has anyone succesfully hedged on DOW and FTSE? i.e. Buy one and sell other, at the correct ratios (~2:1) since they are so very closely linked. The idea being to try and catch big swings in the market, so if FTSE loses 200 points (which you'd have say a SELL bet on) , and DOW say lost 400 (which you'd have a BUY bet on). With stop losses set on each at 100 pts for FTSE and 200 pts for DOW, it would mean my buy bet would be cancelled at 200 points loss, and my sell bet would continue, meaning a profit of 100 pts multiplied by stake.

Up until a big swing or fluctuation occurs, you just keep both bets open, adjusting the stop losses appropriately at daily intervals. The idea being that your spread bet account floats at around the zero profit mark whilst the market has its normal daily fluctuations, but when theres a big jump or fall on bad news then thats when you take profit. Meaning you don't have to call the market at the start of the day, you have just set yourself up for large up swings or down swings.

Is this concept fundamentally flawed somewhere?

Yes.

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I'm saying over 300.

Whenever something bad (good for us) happens it always seems to turn around despite what everybody thinks.

Infact I'm going to say over 350.

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Guest muttley
I've just opened a Spread Betting Account too.

Am thinking of shorting the FTSE soon, and the DOW when it maybe gets to 14400.

Have you heard the expression "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."?

Well, you're setting yourself up for it.

The time to short the Dow, or anything else, is when it has started to fall. Your method will require very deep pockets.

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I've just opened a Spread Betting Account too.

Am thinking of shorting the FTSE soon, and the DOW when it maybe gets to 14400.

On another note:

Has anyone succesfully hedged on DOW and FTSE? i.e. Buy one and sell other, at the correct ratios (~2:1) since they are so very closely linked. The idea being to try and catch big swings in the market, so if FTSE loses 200 points (which you'd have say a SELL bet on) , and DOW say lost 400 (which you'd have a BUY bet on). With stop losses set on each at 100 pts for FTSE and 200 pts for DOW, it would mean my buy bet would be cancelled at 200 points loss, and my sell bet would continue, meaning a profit of 100 pts multiplied by stake.

Up until a big swing or fluctuation occurs, you just keep both bets open, adjusting the stop losses appropriately at daily intervals. The idea being that your spread bet account floats at around the zero profit mark whilst the market has its normal daily fluctuations, but when theres a big jump or fall on bad news then thats when you take profit. Meaning you don't have to call the market at the start of the day, you have just set yourself up for large up swings or down swings.

Is this concept fundamentally flawed somewhere? Obviously if the stop losses are not appropriately set, then they could catch in the normal swings of the day.

Why do people think NR will fall again?

issues with the above

1) although long-term they tend to follow each other, there can be some daily fluctuations dependent upon localised news - can you maintain such fluctuations?

2) all the time your bet is open you are incurring dealing or more appropriately interest charges on both positions - do you want that cost?

3) what happens if they fall or rise to you stop point, trigger the stop in one position but then reverse? - you effectively have a one way losing position, having already made a loss

i'm not saying pairs trading is always a bad idea, but you have to cover all bases

NRK

Apparently someone from the Treasury or similar made a statement that none of the bidders for NRK was offering much if anything for the shares - i have no idea how true this is or not, but if it is true, then the shares are as good as worthless - remember, this isn't a bidding war for a highly prized company like the one for ABN was - this is very much 'i'll do you a favour and take it off you if i can make some money out of it' bid

Edited by the end is nigh

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It would be tempting to short NR, but I just don't have the balls to!

I'm not a gambling person. Plus I'm the unluckiest git ever - as soon as I short it the price will fly up!

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I've just opened a Spread Betting Account too.

Am thinking of shorting the FTSE soon, and the DOW when it maybe gets to 14400.

On another note:

Has anyone succesfully hedged on DOW and FTSE? i.e. Buy one and sell other, at the correct ratios (~2:1) since they are so very closely linked. The idea being to try and catch big swings in the market, so if FTSE loses 200 points (which you'd have say a SELL bet on) , and DOW say lost 400 (which you'd have a BUY bet on). With stop losses set on each at 100 pts for FTSE and 200 pts for DOW, it would mean my buy bet would be cancelled at 200 points loss, and my sell bet would continue, meaning a profit of 100 pts multiplied by stake.

Up until a big swing or fluctuation occurs, you just keep both bets open, adjusting the stop losses appropriately at daily intervals. The idea being that your spread bet account floats at around the zero profit mark whilst the market has its normal daily fluctuations, but when theres a big jump or fall on bad news then thats when you take profit. Meaning you don't have to call the market at the start of the day, you have just set yourself up for large up swings or down swings.

Is this concept fundamentally flawed somewhere? Obviously if the stop losses are not appropriately set, then they could catch in the normal swings of the day.

Why do people think NR will fall again?

Honestly, this sounds like a really bad idea. The most likely outcome is that the market will fall or rise just enough to take out your stop on one index and will then rebound (as it almost always does) giving you a huge loss. Think of it this way, medium size moves are much more common than large moves in the markets. With this strategy, you'll lose on every medium size move while waiting for the "big one" to come along, but by the time it arrives, you'll have already lost everything.

Better advice is to not overtrade. Open a smaller position based on the overall trend of the market, and then take profits on the small and medium size moves. If a big change in momentum comes along, you only have a smaller position open and so if you lose it all, it's not the end of the world.

Following on from this, too, it's rather foolish to be shorting equity indexes right now. Sure, it's a bit of a bubble, but with central banks pumping liquidity into the market, relatively low P/Es, and the momentum of the markets themselves, you're playing chicken with a freight train by being short overall. Going short might make sense in a while when the momentum has played out and it might make sense for individual shares, but I wouldn't be trying to play the hero right now by predicting exactly when a stock market crash will happen.

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It would be tempting to short NR, but I just don't have the balls to!

I'm not a gambling person. Plus I'm the unluckiest git ever - as soon as I short it the price will fly up!

NR has now borowed £13 Bn.

NR has now 6 months of guaranteed deposit safety... then the possibility of another bank-run.

NR has a dodgy portfolio of mortgages - a high proportion of risky loans (Alisdair Darling for one)

NR's name is now a liability

NR's management are a liability

NR's Bond Holders are facing total loss

NR's shareholders are facing total loss

And yet..... there might be money to be made out of trading their shares.....

No-one knows, until tomorrow.....

Share Trading is always a risk....

and the riskier, the more potentially profitable....

One needs nerves of steel..... plus some money which can be thrown away and not missed .....

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Re spread bets on the FTSE and DOW.

I don't follow why you want to execute this strategy on 2 separate indices. If you want to do it, there is no reason why you can't do it on just 1 index. In practice what is likely to happen though is you will end up crystallising a loss until you decide which position to close. Incurring spread costs on each position.

What you basically seem to be saying is you don't know which way you want to trade, long or short. I would suggest you might be more successful taking a position one way or the other.

Most of the correlated indices are currently close to highs, so could either break to new highs or suffer large reversals. Gold and oil are in similar positions.

My personal view is that FTSE will revisit somewhere near close to the August lows again fairly soon, although I can't see the trigger for this yet. Possibly oil or gold new highs (although they obviously drive large cap FTSE shares higher). A large jump in the inflation figures might do it too, or maybe NR offer of a few pence per share. Whatever, if the FTSE sustains new highs this week then forget it.

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Not a good idea IMO as you could lose big time. The big event has already happened (Northern Rock) and the rest is already know about now and factored into the markets, just working it's way through slowly. It's sudden, unexpected things that cause share prices to dip sharply as they did a few weeks ago - I'm expecting the FTSE 100 to hit 7,000 and go beyond that before the end of the year.

That was just the Hors D'oevres.

There's a full 5 courses to get through yet.

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I'm saying over 300.

Whenever something bad (good for us) happens it always seems to turn around despite what everybody thinks.

Infact I'm going to say over 350.

You could be right if the plunge protection team jumps in.

Big players are involved and they can take the massive losses to buy some time and hope silly fools come along and help them finance that loss.

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You could be right if the plunge protection team jumps in.

Big players are involved and they can take the massive losses to buy some time and hope silly fools come along and help them finance that loss.

the 'big players' sold out of this long ago - this is now a speculative bet by hedge funds and private investors

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About 3 quid at a guess, Everything seems to be defying gravity at the moment.

Didn't Virgin have their eye on it?.

I actually shorted the ftse on thursday..... :lol: It slammed into my stop loss about an hour after i clicked on "sell". Lost £50

Warning, Spread betting is gambling.

When you go gambling, never leave the house with more money than you can afford to throw in the gutter.

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Will stick me neck out and go for "about 100", but that's assuming a degree of rationality on the part of NRK shareholders. Not a clever assumption.

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