Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Impartial

This Is Getting Out Of Control

Recommended Posts

Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course. The amount of tinkering thus far has been phenominal, interest rates, tax incentives, inflation figures etc. etc.

the tinkering can only go on for so long until the fundamental problems in the economy (which is the real way of dealing with economics -attack the fundamentals problem) shows itself.

This time around it has been borrowing for growth - not production for growth and massive money supply creation.

The is the start of the end, booms cannot last forever we are looking at some serious issues coming out in the next 12 - 18 months.

Hold tight folks and stay strong.

to all HPC members losng faith or losing direction - all this bull bear news is difficult to decipher.

When this happens go back to fundamentls which history has taught us and trust your own research.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest happy?
Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course. The amount of tinkering thus far has been phenominal, interest rates, tax incentives, inflation figures etc. etc.

the tinkering can only go on for so long until the fundamental problems in the economy (which is the real way of dealing with economics -attack the fundamentals problem) shows itself.

This time around it has been borrowing for growth - not production for growth and massive money supply creation.

The is the start of the end, booms cannot last forever we are looking at some serious issues coming out in the next 12 - 18 months.

Hold tight folks and stay strong.

to all HPC members losng faith or losing direction - all this bull bear news is difficult to decipher.

When this happens go back to fundamentls which history has taught us and trust your own research.

I take the view that there are too many fundamentalists around. Pragmatism's a better course, more intellectually demanding too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was only thinking today that although the problem has been pushed aside each time it was ready to burst, it will in the end be basic economics that will eventually prevail.

Cutting the rates in 2005 just kept prices rising but ultimately they will still fall back to a more manageable income equation.

And this time the wage inflation won't have helped.

I'm more certain today than at any time in my 9 months membership of this forum that we are in the beginnings of a crash scenario.

It's like the bus on the edge of the cliff in The Italian Job (the original, not the pile of 5h1te modern version) - showing my age now. All it needs is a few more to not buy and we have armageddon, same as it was in the 90's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
I take the view that there are too many fundamentalists around. Pragmatism's a better course, more intellectually demanding too.

I have just scored top on a physco-doofer test on this, I came out as a pragmatist & activist almost equal. Does this mean I am highly intelligent then ? ;)

this would explain why I saw we were in the start of the crash (I have never studied economics) when many of the classically trained economists couldn't. Far too busy watching the stats instead of watching real life imo. :D

Edited by grumpy-old-man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have just scored top on a physco-doofer test on this, I came out as a pragmatist & activist almost equal. Does this mean I am highly intelligent then ? ;)

this would explain why I saw we were in the start of the crash (I have never studied economics) when many of the classically trained economists couldn't. Far too busy watching the stats instead of watching real life imo. :D

Absolutely, GOM. Whilst the eggheads were struggling to see the wood for the trees you were busy shouting:

TIMBERRRR!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course. The amount of tinkering thus far has been phenominal, interest rates, tax incentives, inflation figures etc. etc.

the tinkering can only go on for so long until the fundamental problems in the economy (which is the real way of dealing with economics -attack the fundamentals problem) shows itself.

This time around it has been borrowing for growth - not production for growth and massive money supply creation.

The is the start of the end, booms cannot last forever we are looking at some serious issues coming out in the next 12 - 18 months.

Hold tight folks and stay strong.

to all HPC members losng faith or losing direction - all this bull bear news is difficult to decipher.

When this happens go back to fundamentls which history has taught us and trust your own research.

good post which sums up what I believe, the market psychosis we are seeing is absolutely indicative of confusion at peaks and troughs, and so apparent here on hpc, i echo your sentiment impartial - keep the faith - it is unwinding in front of our very eyes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man

you didn't do so bad yourself tuffers, you made up your mind as well & sold at the top.

this is great isn't it. There should be some really happy people on this site now. B)B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you didn't do so bad yourself tuffers, you made up your mind as well & sold at the top.

this is great isn't it. There should be some really happy people on this site now. B)B)

I'm not happy yet - I'm just excited. Can't wait for the implosion proper. I've been saying it for a while but belt up for the Great Big Ball Buster, its gonna be a wild ride.....all the way down :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you didn't do so bad yourself tuffers, you made up your mind as well & sold at the top.

this is great isn't it. There should be some really happy people on this site now. B)B)

It's amazing how many people still can't see it, though. Talking to a colleague today about the RICS report and when I mentioned that prices had fallen for the last two months, all he could say was "It's a good time to buy then".

This crash is going to shake a lot of people who felt comfortable in their complacency that prices only ever go up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This crash is going to shake a lot of people who felt comfortable in their complacency that prices only ever go up

I'm not expecting anyone to congratulate me on the predictions that I have made - in fact I'm expecting them to despise me even more than they already do for all my doom-mongering.

Nevertheless , I'll be picking up a bargain :rolleyes:

Edit: number

Edited by DoctorJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not expecting anyone to congratulate me on the predictions that I have made - in fact I'm expecting them to despise me even more than they already do for all my doom-mongering.

Nevertheless , I'll be picking up a bargain :rolleyes:

Edit: number

In conversation with colleagues, some of them have started to give me the "smug git" look. Predicting the collapse of the net worth of the man in the street certainly isn't the best way to win friends but as you say, picking up a house at a sensible price should be adequate compensation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was only thinking today that although the problem has been pushed aside each time it was ready to burst, it will in the end be basic economics that will eventually prevail.

Cutting the rates in 2005 just kept prices rising but ultimately they will still fall back to a more manageable income equation.

And this time the wage inflation won't have helped.

I'm more certain today than at any time in my 9 months membership of this forum that we are in the beginnings of a crash scenario.

It's like the bus on the edge of the cliff in The Italian Job (the original, not the pile of 5h1te modern version) - showing my age now. All it needs is a few more to not buy and we have armageddon, same as it was in the 90's.

Spot on: What we have seen for 10 years+ with NuLabour is essentially -- Keynesianism via the back door: Money Supply pumped up like never before by astronomical lax lending - i.e. debt - each individual [on average] indebted to the hilt. Nearly 50% of all personal debt in ALL Europe is taken up here in the UK -- and on top of all this too - Public Debt at Astronomical Levels -- THUS -- UK plc is stuffed to the eyeballs with debt.

...All of which has become the "norm" so that the "norm" lifestyle is ONLY obtainable by digging yourself into debt!! Completely Ludicrous!!

NuLabour & The Moneylenders have conspired ruthlessly to bring this about quite deliberately --- and HPI has been DELIBERATELY cooked/hyped up by the Lie-to-Buy/Self-Cert Scandal -- The World's Greatest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam - masquerading as the "housing market". All in all, a fraudulent, poisonous, absurd and criminal operation carried out by the VIs.

Edited by eric pebble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course.

Have new labour been keynesian?

Seriously ? My understanding of it is limited but i think they've been a mixture of keynesian and moneterism (even if that has been as good as the data supplied for it)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest grumpy-old-man
It's amazing how many people still can't see it, though. Talking to a colleague today about the RICS report and when I mentioned that prices had fallen for the last two months, all he could say was "It's a good time to buy then".

This crash is going to shake a lot of people who felt comfortable in their complacency that prices only ever go up

I know what you mean. I have a few fleeting sentences with a few people most weeks, they either make no eye contact & quickly change the subject (that will be fear mode) or pull a strange face & tell me that a mate knows a millionaire who told him that property was going up next year by quite a bit. These types ask me what I do for a living & start looking for a porsche (this would make me credible you see).

Then when I tell them that I am a normal guy with a modest lifestyle, average car etc, they just dismiss everything I have just told them.

UK people, it's all about the colour of your plastic & flash cars imo, with this they think credibility & knowledge follows....fooken idiots. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know what you mean. I have a few fleeting sentences with a few people most weeks, they either make no eye contact & quickly change the subject (that will be fear mode) or pull a strange face & tell me that a mate knows a millionaire who told him that property was going up next year by quite a bit. These types ask me what I do for a living & start looking for a porsche (this would make me credible you see).

Then when I tell them that I am a normal guy with a modest lifestyle, average car etc, they just dismiss everything I have just told them.

UK people, it's all about the colour of your plastic & flash cars imo, with this they think credibility & knowledge follows....fooken idiots. :D

I've been working out whether I'll have enough spare cash to buy a helicopter for commuting purposes when I buy my mansion in Scotland without a mortgage in a few years time. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course. The amount of tinkering thus far has been phenominal, interest rates, tax incentives, inflation figures etc. etc.

the tinkering can only go on for so long until the fundamental problems in the economy (which is the real way of dealing with economics -attack the fundamentals problem) shows itself.

This time around it has been borrowing for growth - not production for growth and massive money supply creation.

The is the start of the end, booms cannot last forever we are looking at some serious issues coming out in the next 12 - 18 months.

Hold tight folks and stay strong.

to all HPC members losng faith or losing direction - all this bull bear news is difficult to decipher.

When this happens go back to fundamentls which history has taught us and trust your own research.

Agreed! I'm ready with deckchair and a couple of cans of beer to watch it all come crashing down :P

...And then after that watch the oil run out :P:P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Keynesian economics is fundamentally based on tinkering with various factors to ensure the economy stays on course. The amount of tinkering thus far has been phenominal, interest rates, tax incentives, inflation figures etc. etc.

the tinkering can only go on for so long until the fundamental problems in the economy (which is the real way of dealing with economics -attack the fundamentals problem) shows itself.

This time around it has been borrowing for growth - not production for growth and massive money supply creation.

The is the start of the end, booms cannot last forever we are looking at some serious issues coming out in the next 12 - 18 months.

Hold tight folks and stay strong.

to all HPC members losng faith or losing direction - all this bull bear news is difficult to decipher.

When this happens go back to fundamentls which history has taught us and trust your own research.

Only problem is:

The main Tinkerer in Chief ... who just happens to be a fat Scottish Tanker ... will continue Tinkering until he is all Tinkered out ... be patient for 12 months ... until such point where the exponential level of Tinkering can be Tinkered with no more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's amazing how many people still can't see it, though. Talking to a colleague today about the RICS report and when I mentioned that prices had fallen for the last two months, all he could say was "It's a good time to buy then".

I think this could be why the crash may be slow. It's not a liquid market, and there will still be people all the way down, saying it's a good time to buy.

Send 'em to betfair, I say. Or better yet, Platform Home Loans.

As I said to a mate, who is of the same mindset, when you have this conversation with someone, if you like them, talk to them about the fundamentals (everything read and said here) and point them to the citywire article that was posted today and a few Telegraph and Times articles and tell them to think who is telling them that property is a one way bet and what they stand to gain out of saying that.

OTOH, if you don't like them, just say your mate has a friend who has been in the property business for 30 years and there has never been a better time to buy property, particularly BTL. Prices and yields are going to the moon, because of Russian billionaires and a shortage of supply. particularly 2 bed flats. :)

The chickenshit showed them the Citywire article. :(

he said to me later that he watched the guy reading the article and had never seen a combination of smugness and fear quite like it before. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spot on: What we have seen for 10 years+ with NuLabour is essentially -- Keynesianism via the back door: Money Supply pumped up like never before by astronomical lax lending - i.e. debt - each individual [on average] indebted to the hilt. Nearly 50% of all personal debt in ALL Europe is taken up here in the UK -- and on top of all this too - Public Debt at Astronomical Levels -- THUS -- UK plc is stuffed to the eyeballs with debt.

...All of which has become the "norm" so that the "norm" lifestyle is ONLY obtainable by digging yourself into debt!! Completely Ludicrous!!

NuLabour & The Moneylenders have conspired ruthlessly to bring this about quite deliberately --- and HPI has been DELIBERATELY cooked/hyped up by the Lie-to-Buy/Self-Cert Scandal -- The World's Greatest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam - masquerading as the "housing market". All in all, a fraudulent, poisonous, absurd and criminal operation carried out by the VIs.

Spot on: ....erm.....too :lol:

...seriously, bang on the money ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 356 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.