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The Bachelor of Arts

Gold Manipulation Oct 25th

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OK over the past few months I've been following the 'goldseek' web site. There is a guy who writes on it called 'the international forecaster'. He gets into facts and figures quite a bit and is very much a conspiracy theorist. About a week ago he made the following claim.

1. The number one job of central banks is to manipulate the gold price.

2. There are more put options placed on gold now than at any time since the 70's. (The usual suspects Goldman, JP etc have placed these).

3. These options expire on Oct 25th. The next Fed interest rate meeting is on 31st.

He claims the following will happen in a couple of weeks:

1. The Yen will be pushed down in order to facilitate the carry trade and the Dow will be pushed to 14,600. (yen is currently falling)

2. Just before options expire (my guess is 20th Oct - 25th) the Yen will be forced up which will cause a mini 'crash' in the Dow as carry traders have to bail out of equities, pay back borrowed Yen, and unwind leveraged positions. The Dow will fall to just below 14,000 before quickly recovering to 14,200.

3. This will force funds to cover margin calls and to do so they will have to sell their precious metal holdings - thus pushing down the gold price.

4. If sucessfull this will allow for an interest rate cut on the 31st. If gold is not hit, then interest rates will stay the same.

So far this guy has been pretty accurate with his predictions - so if this starts to pan out, there may be a very good gold buying dip at the end of the month. If so, expect another interest rate cut & be prepared to spreadbet on the equities relief rally. Then buy back into gold on or around 2nd Nov. ;)

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OK over the past few months I've been following the 'goldseek' web site. There is a guy who writes on it called 'the international forecaster'. He gets into facts and figures quite a bit and is very much a conspiracy theorist. About a week ago he made the following claim.

1. The number one job of central banks is to manipulate the gold price.

2. There are more put options placed on gold now than at any time since the 70's. (The usual suspects Goldman, JP etc have placed these).

3. These options expire on Oct 25th. The next Fed interest rate meeting is on 31st.

He claims the following will happen in a couple of weeks:

1. The Yen will be pushed down in order to facilitate the carry trade and the Dow will be pushed to 14,600. (yen is currently falling)

2. Just before options expire (my guess is 20th Oct - 25th) the Yen will be forced up which will cause a mini 'crash' in the Dow as carry traders have to bail out of equities, pay back borrowed Yen, and unwind leveraged positions. The Dow will fall to just below 14,000 before quickly recovering to 14,200.

3. This will force funds to cover margin calls and to do so they will have to sell their precious metal holdings - thus pushing down the gold price.

4. If sucessfull this will allow for an interest rate cut on the 31st. If gold is not hit, then interest rates will stay the same.

So far this guy has been pretty accurate with his predictions - so if this starts to pan out, there may be a very good gold buying dip at the end of the month. If so, expect another interest rate cut & be prepared to spreadbet on the equities relief rally. Then buy back into gold on or around 2nd Nov. ;)

the fact we had a brief dalliance with $750 earlier today is quite encouraging.I fully expect a re-test of $720,but from what I've seen so far,it looks like that old high of 2006 is pretty strong support.

we may be at an inflexion point in the DOW,as all those mortgage re-sets hit and it becomes painfully obvious that there is more sh1t to hit the fan in the consumer economy.

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I think you mean this one:

International Forecaster MidWeek Reading - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

Posted Thursday, 11 October 2007

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalFore.../1192114980.php

Certainly a long and interesting read :)

Edited by Steve Netwriter

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Just before options expire (my guess is 20th Oct - 25th) the Yen will be forced up...

yentn7.jpg

...which will cause a mini 'crash' in the Dow...

dowet4.jpg

...If sucessfull this will allow for an interest rate cut on the 31st.

90% chance of an October interest rate cut

Sounds accurate so far. Except for the gold price falling - maybe that has yet to come.

Edited by Little Professor

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