Itv Regional Anglia News Lead Story

[LowestoftBoy]

Caught the local news for Anglia at 6pm and the presenter, the delightful Claire Weller, opened the show with the news that house prices in the region were falling faster than any other in the country. Not sure if it meant asking prices or actual sold prices but it was still impressive stuff. Examples included reductions in asking prices of up to 14%. The bulletin is still up on the website itv.com go to the anglia page.

[Spoony]

You have to click on itv local to find the regions but yes, I watched. Good news. I'm in Bucks but we have Anglia TV. Falls 3 months in a row, excellent.

I work with somebody who just can't see why rising property prices is bad, why it can't carry on going up forever, why it has to correct and why every tom dick or harry going into BTL is bad for the country. But theres still a long long way to go to convince these sheeple that the game is up.

Edited October 11, 2007 by Spoony

[LowestoftBoy]

You have to click on itv local to find the regions but yes, I watched. Good news. But theres still a long long way to go to convince the wannabe BTL investors that I know that the game is up.

The bulletin on the website is currently the lunchtime snippet. The evening show went right in depth and gave a few anecdotals from what appeared to be normal people trying to sell. Not like that Panorama show the other night when they got people who were a bit slow etc.

[Veritas]

Caught the local news for Anglia at 6pm and the presenter, the delightful Claire Weller, opened the show with the news that house prices in the region were falling faster than any other in the country. Not sure if it meant asking prices or actual sold prices but it was still impressive stuff. Examples included reductions in asking prices of up to 14%. The bulletin is still up on the website itv.com go to the anglia page.

Spotted it as well. The pink bungalow featured at £425k (or was it £450) looked to worth all of £150k, if that.

The woman wailing that she's desperatly trying to sell her terrace in order to emigrate, why didn't the interviewer put to her the obvoius question .... "why don't you reduce your price to a realistic level (about 2005 prices, but soon to be 2001 ) if you're so desperate?"

The programme was very bearish about prices, but no one could say the two most important phrases "it needs reducing to a saleable level", and "theres the making of a crash on the horizon"

[Bloo Loo]

if folks cant borrow, folks cant buy

its so obvious but most sheeple cant see it

[LowestoftBoy]

Spotted it as well. The pink bungalow featured at £425k (or was it £450) looked to worth all of £150k, if that.

The woman wailing that she's desperatly trying to sell her terrace in order to emigrate, why didn't the interviewer put to her the obvoius question .... "why don't you reduce your price to a realistic level (about 2005 prices, but soon to be 2001 ) if you're so desperate?"

The programme was very bearish about prices, but no one could say the two most important phrases "it needs reducing to a saleable level", and "theres the making of a crash on the horizon"

This report suprised me cos EA ads in my local free rag do not yet indicate a reduction in asking prices even in Lowestoft which is economically dead.

[A.steve]

if folks cant borrow, folks cant buy

its so obvious but most sheeple cant see it

Sure, but I've another question. Do you really envision a situation in the next few years where:

( a ) A current sensible mortgage (say one taken out over 5 years ago for less than 4x gross salary) can not be serviced by someone on an above average wage today? [Even with higher unemployment, a sizeable number of people will manage to service their existing debt, surely?]

( b ) The mortgage lenders won't see it as prudent to favour issuing new mortgages for, say 3 x gross income in order to keep some kind of a lid on negative equity - which would likely hurt them far more.

Maybe MEWing and debt consolidation will become a thing of the past, but I don't think we've seen an end to the issue of new mortgages - even if the lending constraints are to become far more stringent.

My guess is that this has already, or will, hit the car sales business very hard... maybe foreign holidays and other luxury items too?

Edited October 11, 2007 by A.steve

[Bloo Loo]

Sure, but I've another question. Do you really envision a situation in the next few years where:

( a ) A current sensible mortgage (say one taken out over 5 years ago for less than 4x gross salary) can not be serviced by someone on an above average wage today? [Even with higher unemployment, a sizeable number of people will manage to service their existing debt, surely?]

( b ) The mortgage lenders won't see it as prudent to favour issuing new mortgages for, say 3 x gross income in order to keep some kind of a lid on negative equity - which would likely hurt them far more.

Maybe MEWing and debt consolidation will become a thing of the past, but I don't think we've seen an end to the issue of new mortgages - even if the lending constraints are to become far more stringent.

My guess is that this has already, or will, hit the car sales business very hard... maybe foreign holidays and other luxury items too?

I agree, I didnt mean there would be an end to lending. I do beleive there is an end in stupid lending, and I would further extend the definition of "sub Prime" to mean anyone who has borrowed more than 5 times their single income, not just those with a poor credit history. Someone who gets burned with a high interest rate and a hig multiple is just as likely to default.

That coupled with lower LTVs I think is inevitable, and this hugely reduced money supply is bound to lead to huge discounts form todays prices- 100% guaranteed it will be contained

[Douglas]

IIRC East Anglia was the last region to go up and the first to go down in the last House Price Crash during the nineties.

[Lone_Twin]

This report suprised me cos EA ads in my local free rag do not yet indicate a reduction in asking prices even in Lowestoft which is economically dead.

as a Beccles Boy living in Excile in London I am in two minds on this.

.

checking rightmove and my parent's papers when I was at home last

there was not a lot of property reduced in price. there were quite a few

sell to rent back companies advertising though!

.

On the other side I know EAnglia is going to take a big hit shortly.

Theres no industry at all to speak of, the local economy is propped up

by the public sector. Its gone up only really becuase of second homes

lax lending and becuase the rest of the market has been rising.

.

EA lacks any fundamental underpinning for its prices, its going to be hard

times ahead back home i think.

.

ST

[Kurt Barlow]

as a Beccles Boy living in Excile in London I am in two minds on this.

.

checking rightmove and my parent's papers when I was at home last

there was not a lot of property reduced in price. there were quite a few

sell to rent back companies advertising though!

.

On the other side I know EAnglia is going to take a big hit shortly.

Theres no industry at all to speak of, the local economy is propped up

by the public sector. Its gone up only really becuase of second homes

lax lending and becuase the rest of the market has been rising.

.

EA lacks any fundamental underpinning for its prices, its going to be hard

times ahead back home i think.

.

ST

Ive been watching two areas -Cambridge and Kings Lynn

Kings Lynn - the supply of properties on the market has rocketed. The number of <120K properties has almost doubled in the last few months. Its all the BTL - 2up2down, ex council, apartments, shared equity crap coming onto the market. Hell of allot of new build coming on the market - well they always were a bit slow up there!

Cambridge - explosion of new build flats / old flats coming onto the market. Not so sure whats happening with prices.

[DoctorJ]

Ive been watching two areas -Cambridge and Kings Lynn

Kings Lynn - the supply of properties on the market has rocketed. The number of <120K properties has almost doubled in the last few months. Its all the BTL - 2up2down, ex council, apartments, shared equity crap coming onto the market. Hell of allot of new build coming on the market - well they always were a bit slow up there!

Cambridge - explosion of new build flats / old flats coming onto the market. Not so sure whats happening with prices.

I keep hearing that cambridge is a unique market and they are probably right to some degree. The Colleges, with all their wealth, quite frequently get into bidding wars for property in the city. Same goes for Oxford. However, the further out of town you are the less likely is it you will see the effect of this. I can see the outskirts of Cambridge and Oxford seeing some dramatic drops as the level of speculation has been very high.

Edited October 11, 2007 by DoctorJ

[Kurt Barlow]

I keep hearing that cambridge is a unique market and they are probably right to some degree. The Colleges, with all their wealth, quite frequently get into bidding wars for property in the city. Same goes for Oxford. However, the further out of town you are the less likely is it you will see the effect of this. I can see the outskirts of Cambridge and Oxford seeing some dramatic drops as the level of speculation has been very high.

Thats sheeple for you. For what you pay for a 2up2down probably between 2 student hovels you can get a nice 3-4 detached with off road parking 20-30 minutes car, bus, taxi ride into town.

[zinny01]

I've heard RB saying several times that during the last crash E.Anglia was the first to drop and drop fast. I'm sure he'll be salivating over this while he's over in Kalifornia.

[lordofcolchester]

As my name suggets I'm originally from Colchester (North Essex for those lacking in Geography skills) and am actively looking at this area for when I move back to the UK (sold in 2004 and left England 2006).

Colchester market is dead at the moment as there have been thousands of new builds close to the train station. Builders appear to be offering big discounts at the moment to shift stocks.

[Barb E Dahl]

As my name suggets I'm originally from Colchester (North Essex for those lacking in Geography skills) and am actively looking at this area for when I move back to the UK (sold in 2004 and left England 2006).

Colchester market is dead at the moment as there have been thousands of new builds close to the train station. Builders appear to be offering big discounts at the moment to shift stocks.

Prices seem to be dropping by a lot in Essex. Many properties have been on the market for months. I'm living in what was a highly sought after/thriving area, where buying here was just not an option for me. However purchasing a house is now within my reach. I've also noticed the amount of flats up for sale .... I certainly wouldn't buy a flat now, you wouldn't be able to sell it again in the near future, with the number currently available.

Despite this, I've still kinda lost the desire to purchase ...I think I'll sit this one out longer and see what happens.

[Bug16]

I keep hearing that cambridge is a unique market and they are probably right to some degree. The Colleges, with all their wealth, quite frequently get into bidding wars for property in the city. Same goes for Oxford. However, the further out of town you are the less likely is it you will see the effect of this. I can see the outskirts of Cambridge and Oxford seeing some dramatic drops as the level of speculation has been very high.

Generally there's been about a 3% drop every 6 months for the last 2 years in Cambridge.

Flats are dropping about 50% in value in the last 6 months in certain parts of the city. Interestingly the University is also now selling a number of it's flats.

[Far Out Bear]

as a Beccles Boy living in Excile in London I am in two minds on this.

.

checking rightmove and my parent's papers when I was at home last

there was not a lot of property reduced in price. there were quite a few

sell to rent back companies advertising though!

.

On the other side I know EAnglia is going to take a big hit shortly.

Theres no industry at all to speak of, the local economy is propped up

by the public sector. Its gone up only really becuase of second homes

lax lending and becuase the rest of the market has been rising.

.

EA lacks any fundamental underpinning for its prices, its going to be hard

times ahead back home i think.

.

ST

Apart from agriculture, you know, the stuff that keeps you alive.

[crash 2005]

Fair point, but that pays minimum wage (if you're lucky), is irregular and requires Polish these days. That might be 'industry' to the employers but it sure doesn't feel like it to the locals.

East Anglia will crash big time. Income multiples are now pushing 10x local wages. It is complete and utter lunacy and totally unsustainable.

very true, as the speculative london second home buyers retreat from east anglia, the inflated asking prices will simply crash

[Lone_Twin]

Apart from agriculture, you know, the stuff that keeps you alive.

Try living round that way and see how many people have a job in agriculture.

.

Out in EA its mostly large arable farms which can be run with a relatively small team

and some decent machinery. We're not all out there with scythes you know.

.

Agriculture actually makes a surprisingly small contribution to the local economy when

looked at against the size of the population. More is made from tourism FFS.

.

I repeat there is no substantial or fundamental underpinning of the local economy in

East Anglia. Service, Public sector and Tourism reliant jobs will be hit hard by any

downturn and people out there who have MEW'd the hell out of their houses (including

my parents) are going to get a real shock.

.

ST