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Sledgehead

Predicting Top 10 Toys 4 Xmas

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A spokesman for a company that specialises in predicting the Top 10 Christmas toys - ie those which will be in demand, revealed some rather unsurprising information this morning about his company's methods for predicting Xmas success. Basically they look at :

Exposure on the "big screen" - ie movie tie-ins;

Exposure on TV;

Exposure in computer games;

Marketing spend.

Given that his company has picked 10 out of 12 winners, you'd think others might give some credance to his approach in predicting other winners outside the toy-market. For instance, would it be so outlandish to suggest his methods might work for the property market?

If we make the bold assumption <sarcasm> that exposure to proprerty marketing via television etc is really the chief determinant in driving demand and hence prices, we begin to see that the banks / profligate-individuals / numptees / government might be only bit-part players in what has happened over the past ~7 years.

It also might suggest that so many arguments, such as affordability / low supply are no more than smoke screens put out by the very people - the media - who are actually responsible for current prices.

So what kind of effect can blanket marketing produce? Remember the Tickle-Me-Elmo dearth; the great Buzz Lightyear drought? Remember Pokemon panic or Teletubbies & Tracy Island trauma? All of these produced "grey markets" in reselling where prices were double the recommended retail price. Last year Lazytown lunacy produced a similar effect, with £18 toys selling for £30-35 - an 80% mark-up! Now the same toys are practically worthless.

Of course, I'm not saying people are liable to pay an 80% mark-up for a house just because 15 mins of telly a day can force an 80% uplift in the price of a £15 toy. That would be foolish. On the other hand, 120 minutes of marketing a day??? Hmmmmm. ;)

( :P )

Edited by Sledgehead

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I can see where you're coming from...after watching these property programs for years and thinking what a great idea it would be to jump ship and live in spain/abroad/in the sun/in the country/in massive debt...im kinda glad I didnt.

Have you noticed these programs are being repeated and show people still making massive profits or picking up bargains in spain....tho the tide is turning.

Overall, i'd have to say it's a case of the "bland leading the bland" :-)

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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A spokesman for a company that specialises in predicting the Top 10 Christmas toys - ie those which will be in demand, revealed some rather unsurprising information this morning about his company's methods for predicting Xmas success. Basically they look at :

Exposure on the "big screen" - ie movie tie-ins;

Exposure on TV;

Exposure in computer games;

Marketing spend.

Just ask Santa, himself and the elves are probably in full swing already.............only 75 days 'till christmas. ;)

Edited by headmelter

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if you think how many BTLrs have real EXPERIENCE of property you might find that its not many.

almost all property info and ideas come from the endless telly and papers saying how good it is.

they havent heard it from anywhere else, and even people that advise them (work etc) got their info from the telly probably.

they are mostly ALL amatuers.

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It also might suggest that so many arguments, such as affordability / low supply are no more than smoke screens put out by the very people - the media - who are actually responsible for current prices.

They're merely a conduit in my view. Producers (of housing) have seen the cost of borrowed capital plummet (due to reserve intervention). They've seen the gap between product, and cost of production widen - erroneously forecast increased future demand, and borrowed (mightily!) to service it.

Marketing is only one of a spectrum of expenses incurred. And TV properdee porn merely one of the vehicles used by it to deliver the required message.

Your thesis blames the cart for the dung atop (pulled by the horse in front). But it's a great way to measure likely sentiment shifts - you seem to have a knack for picking them.

Edited by ParticleMan

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A spokesman for a company that specialises in predicting the Top 10 Christmas toys - ie those which will be in demand, revealed some rather unsurprising information this morning about his company's methods for predicting Xmas success. Basically they look at :

Exposure on the "big screen" - ie movie tie-ins;

Exposure on TV;

Exposure in computer games;

Marketing spend.

Given that his company has picked 10 out of 12 winners, you'd think others might give some credance to his approach in predicting other winners outside the toy-market. For instance, would it be so outlandish to suggest his methods might work for the property market?

If we make the bold assumption <sarcasm> that exposure to proprerty marketing via television etc is really the chief determinant in driving demand and hence prices, we begin to see that the banks / profligate-individuals / numptees / government might be only bit-part players in what has happened over the past ~7 years.

It also might suggest that so many arguments, such as affordability / low supply are no more than smoke screens put out by the very people - the media - who are actually responsible for current prices.

So what kind of effect can blanket marketing produce? Remember the Tickle-Me-Elmo dearth; the great Buzz Lightyear drought? Remember Pokemon panic or Teletubbies & Tracy Island trauma? All of these produced "grey markets" in reselling where prices were double the recommended retail price. Last year Lazytown lunacy produced a similar effect, with £18 toys selling for £30-35 - an 80% mark-up! Now the same toys are practically worthless.

Of course, I'm not saying people are liable to pay an 80% mark-up for a house just because 15 mins of telly a day can force an 80% uplift in the price of a £15 toy. That would be foolish. On the other hand, 120 minutes of marketing a day??? Hmmmmm. ;)

( :P )

It may well be In the Night Garden (see posts passim).

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