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Starcrossed

Hpc - When Will Our Logic Turn Into Fear?

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Just a thought.

With our views becoming mainstream I wonder at what point looking at this site will become counter-productive. The reasoned bearish arguments that led us to this point will eventually become merely blind sentiment that slots a little too easily into the fear and panic majority.

I know many of us pride ourselves on being contrarian but it will be difficult to become bulls when prices have dropped by over 30% (as seems likely)

This board, IMO, will become 'the problem' at some point because it is a haven for perma-bears as well as bears-lite.

Could be years, but the time will come to say 'so long HPC, thanks for all the good times'. I believe we are a long way from that as yet but I have my eyes open...

Anyone else thinking along similar lines?

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im not. only the frustration of not being able to move forward with buying a home brings me here. without that and in a future crashed out environment ill be posting a lot less. its not healthy here.

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Just a thought.

With our views becoming mainstream I wonder at what point looking at this site will become counter-productive. The reasoned bearish arguments that led us to this point will eventually become merely blind sentiment that slots a little too easily into the fear and panic majority.

I know many of us pride ourselves on being contrarian but it will be difficult to become bulls when prices have dropped by over 30% (as seems likely)

This board, IMO, will become 'the problem' at some point because it is a haven for perma-bears as well as bears-lite.

Could be years, but the time will come to say 'so long HPC, thanks for all the good times'. I believe we are a long way from that as yet but I have my eyes open...

Anyone else thinking along similar lines?

My main concern is spending too much time here and overdoing the fear.

We are looking to jump back into property in a couple of years, maybe 3, not trying to be too greedy and not expecting to call the very bottom.

so I am worried that I will be turned into believing that the end of the world is near. I don't believe it is, but people put up very convincing arguments.

And then when prices have dropped by say 35%, do I look and think that they haven't dropped 60%, so I can't buy yet?

Does the lack of a global financial collapse end up clouding my judgement? I saw this happen to Beckman-ites in the 90s. They were sitting on the top of the hill waiting for the end of the world and it didn't happen.

Maybe people should have their own set of criteria for when they jump back in and stick to them unless something drastic does (or doesn't happen).

Mine was 25-30% but as always is driven by the local market, rather than just the national figures.

I reckon if I wanted a flat though I could pop along to an auction and get that 30% right now. Not that stupid however. :)

There must be a time when it is obvious that the crash is finished, and maybe buying after the bottom is not such a bad thing because they won't recover quickly.

Sorry these are random ramblings. :)

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You're right.

That's why when prices have crashed I'm going to start a new site promoting rising prices:

www.housepricebull.co.uk

er wait - that name could be used at the moment to complement this one - all the bull about "house prices only ever go up etc" :lol::lol::lol:

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Just a thought.

With our views becoming mainstream I wonder at what point looking at this site will become counter-productive. The reasoned bearish arguments that led us to this point will eventually become merely blind sentiment that slots a little too easily into the fear and panic majority.

I know many of us pride ourselves on being contrarian but it will be difficult to become bulls when prices have dropped by over 30% (as seems likely)

This board, IMO, will become 'the problem' at some point because it is a haven for perma-bears as well as bears-lite.

Could be years, but the time will come to say 'so long HPC, thanks for all the good times'. I believe we are a long way from that as yet but I have my eyes open...

Anyone else thinking along similar lines?

The board may be a good place to monitor if we've hit the bottom. But I suspect that the general sentiment on the board may overshoot the bottom (expectations of complete meltdown, end of life as we know it, second coming, etc). And then it will evolve into the gathering place for those awaiting Great Crash 3.

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Just a thought.

With our views becoming mainstream I wonder at what point looking at this site will become counter-productive. The reasoned bearish arguments that led us to this point will eventually become merely blind sentiment that slots a little too easily into the fear and panic majority.

I know many of us pride ourselves on being contrarian but it will be difficult to become bulls when prices have dropped by over 30% (as seems likely)

This board, IMO, will become 'the problem' at some point because it is a haven for perma-bears as well as bears-lite.

Could be years, but the time will come to say 'so long HPC, thanks for all the good times'. I believe we are a long way from that as yet but I have my eyes open...

Anyone else thinking along similar lines?

I broadly agree SC, but I think it will be years before the herd concedes.

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I know many of us pride ourselves on being contrarian but it will be difficult to become bulls when prices have dropped by over 30% (as seems likely)

What I've said many times.

My experiences in Berlin property show almost everyone becomes uber bearish, and cant see the light at tunnel end. This is when the true contrarians AS OPPOSED TO THE PERMA - PESSIMISTS, make thier moves.

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Good topic Starcrossed - I'm a long time lurker who converted to posting simply because I wanted to rant at some of the absolute rubbish written about economics by some of the posters.

You do have a point as many of the correspondents on the site seem content with simply tracking down and not wondered what will happen when it bottoms out.

My view - I state neither on my profile (as in bull or bear)- is that it is a cycle - I can be bullish or bearish depending on where we are in the cycle but it's still a cycle.

Shedfish has a great graph/cycle on his tag which is very similar to my views (It's generally known as a hype cycle and can happen in any technology/asset)

I use the site because I like to watch the anecdotals and see the news around property in one place which this place does very well but it's going to be interesting in maybe 2 or even 3 years to see what everybody's doing.

Although I may be flamed, my intention is to start buying again - I'll have decent rental returns, an easy market and the ability to properly renovate places and 'invest' wisely for a few years. I'll keep an eye on the market and do what I've done in this cycle (a couple of years ago now)...which is sell out and wait for the crash.

So if you're asking who, once we're absolutely sure that the crash is in full swing, wants to join you in the land of....housepricestabilisation.co.uk followed by goodrentalreturns.co.uk and then eventually in 10 or 12 years housepricecrash.eu....I'm game.

Long live herd mentality and long live people.

Edited by bearish_rat

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My main concern is spending too much time here and overdoing the fear.

We are looking to jump back into property in a couple of years, maybe 3, not trying to be too greedy and not expecting to call the very bottom.

so I am worried that I will be turned into believing that the end of the world is near. I don't believe it is, but people put up very convincing arguments.

And then when prices have dropped by say 35%, do I look and think that they haven't dropped 60%, so I can't buy yet?

Does the lack of a global financial collapse end up clouding my judgement? I saw this happen to Beckman-ites in the 90s. They were sitting on the top of the hill waiting for the end of the world and it didn't happen.

Maybe people should have their own set of criteria for when they jump back in and stick to them unless something drastic does (or doesn't happen).

Mine was 25-30% but as always is driven by the local market, rather than just the national figures.

I reckon if I wanted a flat though I could pop along to an auction and get that 30% right now. Not that stupid however. :)

There must be a time when it is obvious that the crash is finished, and maybe buying after the bottom is not such a bad thing because they won't recover quickly.

Sorry these are random ramblings. :)

Don't buy a flat at 30% reduction now, wait till they have fallen 60%.

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Guest Popalot

It's a wise post. I think the site segments down into all sorts, but I do believe in a steady core of sanguine and basically life-optimistic people who are logically and instinctively certain that these economic imbalances are just that, and extremely so at the moment - and that we are due for a correction. There will be a loony fringe at both extremes, but most of the key people on here just understand CYCLES..................................and find a warming solace in the fact that others think the same.

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Although I may be flamed, my intention is to start buying again - I'll have decent rental returns, an easy market and the ability to properly renovate places and 'invest' wisely for a few years. I'll keep an eye on the market and do what I've done in this cycle (a couple of years ago now)...which is sell out and wait for the crash.

I won't be flaming you bearish_rat. Through this site I have learnt not judge on the basis of investment decisions. There are merely smart people and foolish people. The markets always (eventually) prove to be the final arbiter of that decision.

Without foolish people there wouldn't be a boom and therefore there wouldn't be the crash (that many people here will benefit from). The idea is to become one of the sensible ones and make good decisions at the right time.

I don't deny that bad things also happen to good people but it's difficult to know what society can do about that besides ensure there is some kind of safety net. Other than that, as I say, I have learnt not to place moral categories on these things. Good luck to you.

Edited by Starcrossed

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I'm sure this question has been asked before but what constitutes a proper crash? Are we looking at 10%, 30%,......? What sort of falls have we had in the last two months?

In my area, Norwich, I have yet to see any discernible downward movement in house prices. We need to have some sort of percentage figure before we start using the crash word!

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I'm sure this question has been asked before but what constitutes a proper crash? Are we looking at 10%, 30%,......? What sort of falls have we had in the last two months?

In my area, Norwich, I have yet to see any discernible downward movement in house prices. We need to have some sort of percentage figure before we start using the crash word!

For me, 30% falls in real terms over 3 years is a crash. At that point I may buy if it suits my lifestyle to do so. You will find many on here that are less conservative than that.

Edited by Starcrossed

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For me, 30% falls in real terms over 3 years is a crash. At that point I may buy if it suits my lifestyle to do so. You will find many on here that are less conservative than that.

Absolutely, to many on this site, judging by the comments we see, only 30% over 3 years would be extremely disappointing.

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To be honest I'm not a contrarian, but I am (at least I try to be) a fundamentalist. When house prices go to below three times income, or at least there is a damn good reason that they will stay above it, then I buy. I will also look at buying if rental costs rise above Income Only mortgage costs for similar houses.

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I'm sure this question has been asked before but what constitutes a proper crash? Are we looking at 10%, 30%,......? What sort of falls have we had in the last two months?

In my area, Norwich, I have yet to see any discernible downward movement in house prices. We need to have some sort of percentage figure before we start using the crash word!

Hmm the market in Norwich is drier than a nuns ****!

The city is in full lock-up mode. Only forced sellers will be setting the downward trend to begin with.

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