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crash2006

House Prices: On The Edge

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Price cuts have been substantial, up to 10 per cent," he says. "Many vendors do understand what is going on, and if they want to sell, they have to cut their price. Unfortunately this isn't working either."
Alan Emery of Ocean estate agents in Bristol says the Nationwide and Halifax housing data lagged and was not a true reflection of what was happening on the ground. "This time last year we had 80 properties to sell and now we have 240. There are too many houses and not enough buyers," he says. "We are having to reduce prices. A house that might have sold at £290,000 last year will be put on the market this year at £250,000 and still struggle to sell."
The reality is that many properties on the market today are being valued at considerably less than they were a year ago. "We are at the end of the house price boom," says Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research, the forecaster. "Prices could grind to a halt, and falls are likely."

oh well thing dont look good at all do they now, looks like buyers arnt buying and sellers are selling lol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...7/cmhouse07.xml

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And whats that kind Sir?

Well a pattern (much as you would expect) where people come on the site for up to 4 years and say prices are falling. That's why it is named as it is.

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Well a pattern (much as you would expect) where people come on the site for up to 4 years and say prices are falling. That's why it is named as it is.

Well that link is from a national newspaper, now its gone on main street, it should'nt take that long now.

Edited by crash2006

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Alan Emery of Ocean estate agents in Bristol says the Nationwide and Halifax housing data lagged and was not a true reflection of what was happening on the ground. "This time last year we had 80 properties to sell and now we have 240. There are too many houses and not enough buyers,"

Funny. Only a few weeks ago there was a property shortage in the UK! :lol:

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Well that link is from a national newspaper, now its gone on main street it should nt take thta long now.

we need it to hit the thick papers.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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oh well thing dont look good at all do they now, looks like buyers arnt buying and sellers are selling lol.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...7/cmhouse07.xml

Thanks Crash for that link. Here is a snippet from that article :

Runaway house prices, five mortgage rate rises in a matter of months, the introduction of home information packs and a crisis of confidence triggered by Northern Rock are forcing property sellers to slash prices by up to 20 per cent – just to get a sniff of interest from prospective buyers.

I was looking in the HPC Wiki section under "Read what the Newspapers were saying last time round". There was a strikingly similar article on 1st July 1989 in the Times which said :

Saturday 01 JUL 1989 - The Times - Owners drop house prices by 20% to encourage sales

House prices are being cut by thousands of pounds to sell properties that have been on estate agents' books since last year. Vendors, still influenced by last summer's prices, are having to reduce asking prices by as much as 20per cent to sell, accor... Link

The 1st July was the absolute peak of the last house price bubble. Folks, I have a strong feeling we are now actually sitting at the very top of the current bubble

Best,

L

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Guest grumpy-old-man
i thought that house prices only went up? :unsure:

well, they do when they are not going down. :D

the papers make me laugh, most of them are sh1te!!

tell the masses what they need to hear, why can't people handle the truth any more, or perhaps they never could ?

nearly there now.......

all this without a major internal or external shock as well.......I wonder when that will happen. :ph34r:

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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Guest grumpy-old-man
er so this is probably not the best time for me to buy a bigger house then?

only if you paying with monopoly money.

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nearly there now.......

all this without a major internal or external shock as well.......I wonder when that will happen. :ph34r:

I would say the credit crunch is quite a major external/internal factor, one that has been managed to seem as if it has been controlled but the effects are being felt. I know there are some threads that have pointed out 125% mortgages are still being offered. I think that the lenders know the game is up and if they were to pull all these products that have been so vital over the last few years it would speed up the crash giving them less time to maneuver.

Undoubtedly there is worse to come but it is happening and I think the pace will taken many by surprise!

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Guest grumpy-old-man
I would say the credit crunch is quite a major external/internal factor, one that has been managed to seem as if it has been controlled but the effects are being felt. I know there are some threads that have pointed out 125% mortgages are still being offered. I think that the lenders know the game is up and if they were to pull all these products that have been so vital over the last few years it would speed up the crash giving them less time to maneuver.

Undoubtedly there is worse to come but it is happening and I think the pace will taken many by surprise!

yes but historically hasn't there always been an unexpected & uncontrollable reason, last time around it was the Gulf war wasn't it........?

I see where you are coming from but that would mean that the bankers & politicians won't have someone else to blame. That means one of them will have to take the blame surely? :ph34r:

of course they will try to hang it on the US as they have been trying, but I don't think that will work do you ?

Apparantly our sub-prime arrives for xmas & Santa said we have been even better than the Americans so we can have a bigger sack of it, that's handy for everyone then.

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I would say the credit crunch is quite a major external/internal factor, one that has been managed to seem as if it has been controlled but the effects are being felt. I know there are some threads that have pointed out 125% mortgages are still being offered. I think that the lenders know the game is up and if they were to pull all these products that have been so vital over the last few years it would speed up the crash giving them less time to maneuver.

Undoubtedly there is worse to come but it is happening and I think the pace will taken many by surprise!

well speeding up the crash would be good, create obstacles to slow it down now will only make it last longer.

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Love this quote.......Fraser Hill of Jordan Fishwick in Didsbury, Manchester says his normally buoyant locality has "slowed a lot" and prices are "levelling down"

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I would say the credit crunch is quite a major external/internal factor, one that has been managed to seem as if it has been controlled but the effects are being felt. I know there are some threads that have pointed out 125% mortgages are still being offered. I think that the lenders know the game is up and if they were to pull all these products that have been so vital over the last few years it would speed up the crash giving them less time to maneuver.

Undoubtedly there is worse to come but it is happening and I think the pace will taken many by surprise!

Honestly, I worked in a h.o. of a major building soc, and I can absolutely PROMISE you that the HPI mantra is infested right to the top of those organisations. They have no clue about the underlying market dynamics and still offer high salary ratio mortgages because they just don't know what else to do, and their companies are so streamlined and specialised at sellng mortgages (and nothing else) that they will continue to do so, at a significant loss, until they have no choice but to stop. Many of them have absolutely no idea that there may be a game that could end, they really believe the hype. It's probably some kind of organisational narcissistic denial, and I swear to you that it is there in significant quantity - the board, senior economists, bond dealers, business managers.

edit - enhanced last sentence

Edited by Si1

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Honestly, I worked in a h.o. of a major building soc, and I can absolutely PROMISE you that the HPI mantra is infested right to the top of those organisations. They have no clue about the underlying market dynamics and still offer high salary ratio mortgages because they just don't know what else to do, and their companies are so streamlined and specialised at sellng mortgages (and nothing else) that they will continue to do so, at a significant loss, until they have no choice but to stop. Many of them have absolutely no idea that there may be a game that could end, they really believe the hype. It's probably some kind of organisational narcissistic denial, and I swear to you that it is there in significant quantity - the board, senior economists, bond dealers, business managers.

edit - enhanced last sentence

I believe this 100%, because otherwise THIS could not have happened. And if there were any with doubt in the upper ranks, they'd better hold their thoughts to themselves, I would guess.

Edited by Goldfinger

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While I look forward to seeing house prices coming down, I have a feeling that I'm not going to enjoy seeing all the reasons for it sprouted in the media. High prices are blamed on lack of supply, booming economy, blah, blah, puke. With prices falling it'll be Credit Crunch, Northern Rock, US Housing Market, blah, blah, puke.

I suppose the real reason is just way too boring to sell news: People failed to stop and say "That's just too much. I'll rent, thanks".

Edited by dellboy

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Well a pattern (much as you would expect) where people come on the site for up to 4 years and say prices are falling. That's why it is named as it is.

And now they are right.

So what are your predictions for the coming months, oh wise one dunno-neither-ditherer?

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I believe this 100%, because otherwise THIS could not have happened. And if there were any with doubt in the upper ranks, they'd better hold their thoughts to themselves, I would guess.

exactly

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Honestly, I worked in a h.o. of a major building soc, and I can absolutely PROMISE you that the HPI mantra is infested right to the top of those organisations. They have no clue about the underlying market dynamics and still offer high salary ratio mortgages because they just don't know what else to do, and their companies are so streamlined and specialised at sellng mortgages (and nothing else) that they will continue to do so, at a significant loss, until they have no choice but to stop. Many of them have absolutely no idea that there may be a game that could end, they really believe the hype. It's probably some kind of organisational narcissistic denial, and I swear to you that it is there in significant quantity - the board, senior economists, bond dealers, business managers.

edit - enhanced last sentence

If this is the case, and I am not doubting you because I have worked in an industry where the people at the top had absolutely no grasp of the bigger picture, it is a very worrying situation. The fact they have not prepared for this situation (even the FSA 6 months ago warned to stress test with a market fall of 30%) beggars belief and puts our banking system in even more danger than I had originally thought! They should have be prepared for this and be in full damage limitation mode, but hey I guess there would be no boom if the had a handle on how bad a bust could be!

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The people at the top no EXACTLY whats happening- they cant behave in any other way if they are to make this last as long as possible- The first the guys in the offices know that anything is goinmg wrong is when they are marched out the door with the contents of their desks in a Sainsburies bag

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