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Realistbear

California Update -- Huge Drops In Orange County

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http://www.ocregister.com/money/beach-irvi...-anaheim-orange

Community Zip Median Change Sales Change

Aliso Viejo 92656 $546,000 4.0% 61 -41.3%

Anaheim 92801 $504,500 -6.4% 20 -42.9%

Anaheim 92802 $534,500 2.8% 15 -42.3%

Anaheim 92804 $505,000 -14.3% 29 -49.1%

Anaheim 92805 $540,000 -6.9% 21 -44.7%

Anaheim 92806 $663,000 4.4% 7 -65.0%

Anaheim 92807 $622,000 -2.0% 18 -47.1%

Anaheim 92808 $630,500 -19.7% 26 23.8%

Brea 92821 $615,000 -10.2% 33 3.1%

Brea 92823 $735,000 -16.9% 4 -20.0%

Buena Park 90620 $516,000 -12.5% 29 -19.4%

Buena Park 90621 $495,000 -15.4% 16 -33.3%

Corona del Mar 92625 $1,712,500 -16.9% 17 -29.2%

Costa Mesa 92626 $636,000 -9.1% 30 -28.6%

Costa Mesa 92627 $575,000 -16.7% 24 -14.3%

Cypress 90630 $529,000 -3.5% 42 -8.7%

Dana Point 92624 $1,860,000 132.7% 6 -33.3%

Dana Point 92629 $787,750 -9.5% 32 10.3%

Foothill Ranch 92610 $620,000 -8.8% 13 8.3%

Fountain Valley 92708 $667,500 -8.7% 16 -70.9%

Fullerton 92831 $510,000 -16.3% 13 -51.9%

Fullerton 92832 $516,000 -14.4% 12 -45.5%

Fullerton 92833 $490,000 -14.0% 32 -52.9%

Fullerton 92835 $907,500 17.9% 14 -33.3%

Garden Grove 92840 $505,000 -11.8% 28 -49.1%

Garden Grove 92841 $471,000 -19.1% 12 -53.8%

Garden Grove 92843 $442,500 -21.3% 9 -65.4%

Garden Grove 92844 $364,500 -31.9% 5 -64.3%

Garden Grove 92845 $590,000 -6.3% 11 -35.3%

Huntington Beach 92646 $717,500 6.7% 44 -34.3%

Huntington Beach 92647 $625,000 -3.8% 31 -18.4%

Huntington Beach 92648 $775,000 -24.4% 57 16.3%

Huntington Beach 92649 $815,000 20.7% 34 -2.9%

Irvine 92602 $650,000 -15.5% 20 -28.6%

Irvine 92603 $943,000 -3.2% 20 -42.9%

Irvine 92604 $581,000 -13.9% 18 -33.3%

Irvine 92606 $735,000 2.4% 15 25.0%

Irvine 92612 $695,000 12.1% 21 -12.5%

Irvine 92614 $611,500 11.2% 21 -16.0%

Irvine 92618 $525,000 -2.2% 19 111.1%

Irvine 92620 $762,500 -12.2% 30 -50.0%

Ladera Ranch 92694 $741,818 -23.9% 42 -39.1%

La Habra 90631 $435,000 14.3% 29 -66.3%

La Palma 90623 $704,500 -1.1% 9 125.0%

Laguna Beach 92651 $1,400,000 -10.5% 27 -27.0%

Laguna Hills 92653 $515,750 1.3% 25 -44.4%

Laguna Niguel 92677 $760,000 5.6% 68 -39.3%

Laguna Woods 92637 $272,500 -7.0% 51 54.5%

Lake Forest 92630 $505,000 -19.2% 42 -42.5%

Los Alamitos 90720 $815,000 -8.4% 14 -39.1%

Midway City 92655 $491,000 -11.9% 5 -44.4%

Mission Viejo 92691 $623,000 -6.5% 38 -46.5%

Mission Viejo 92692 $592,500 -13.1% 55 -27.6%

Newport Beach 92660 $1,600,000 23.1% 28 3.7%

Newport Beach 92661 $2,200,000 74.6% 5 25.0%

Newport Beach 92662 $2,400,000 33.0% 1 -50.0%

Newport Beach 92663 $1,210,000 -28.8% 15 -25.0%

Newport Coast 92657 $2,714,500 3.2% 21 50.0%

Orange 92865 $577,000 -9.1% 23 43.8%

Orange 92866 $605,500 14.9% 6 50.0%

Orange 92867 $590,000 -17.2% 29 -37.0%

Orange 92868 $372,500 -22.3% 13 -7.1%

Orange 92869 $619,500 -10.2% 27 -44.9%

Placentia 92870 $589,000 -4.2% 37 -41.3%

Rancho Santa Margarita 92688 $580,000 -2.1% 58 -32.6%

San Clemente 92672 $1,005,000 8.6% 19 -40.6%

San Clemente 92673 $872,500 -13.7% 39 -33.9%

San Juan Capistrano 92675 $690,000 9.1% 30 -33.3%

Santa Ana 92701 $400,000 28.1% 13 -81.9%

Santa Ana 92703 $390,000 -33.9% 8 -83.3%

Santa Ana 92704 $540,000 -8.6% 20 -71.4%

Santa Ana 92705 $760,000 12.8% 16 -44.8%

Santa Ana 92706 $690,000 14.0% 12 -67.6%

Santa Ana 92707 $417,500 -26.1% 15 -76.9%

Seal Beach 90740 $817,500 -46.4% 12 -36.8%

Stanton 90680 $431,500 8.6% 17 -19.0%

Trabuco/Coto 92679 $895,000 3.1% 45 -19.6%

Tustin 92780 $560,000 0.2% 19 -62.0%

Tustin 92782 $720,000 13.5% 39 30.0%

Villa Park 92861 $1,212,000 1.1% 6 100.0%

Westminster 92683 $579,000 -5.4% 28 -50.9%

Yorba Linda 92886 $825,000 0.0% 34 -50.0%

Yorba Linda 92887 $810,000 -6.3% 19 -17.4%

All resale houses $689,000 0.3% 1,307 -37.5%

All condominiums $435,000 -3.3% 538 -36.0%

All new homes $558,000 -29.0% 279 -16.7%

All homes $605,000 -4.0% 2,124 -35.0%

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http://www.ocregister.com/money/beach-irvi...-anaheim-orange

Community Zip Median Change Sales Change

Aliso Viejo 92656 $546,000 4.0% 61 -41.3%

Anaheim 92801 $504,500 -6.4% 20 -42.9%

Anaheim 92802 $534,500 2.8% 15 -42.3%

Anaheim 92804 $505,000 -14.3% 29 -49.1%

Anaheim 92805 $540,000 -6.9% 21 -44.7%

Anaheim 92806 $663,000 4.4% 7 -65.0%

Anaheim 92807 $622,000 -2.0% 18 -47.1%

Anaheim 92808 $630,500 -19.7% 26 23.8%

Brea 92821 $615,000 -10.2% 33 3.1%

Brea 92823 $735,000 -16.9% 4 -20.0%

Buena Park 90620 $516,000 -12.5% 29 -19.4%

Buena Park 90621 $495,000 -15.4% 16 -33.3%

Corona del Mar 92625 $1,712,500 -16.9% 17 -29.2%

Costa Mesa 92626 $636,000 -9.1% 30 -28.6%

Costa Mesa 92627 $575,000 -16.7% 24 -14.3%

Cypress 90630 $529,000 -3.5% 42 -8.7%

Dana Point 92624 $1,860,000 132.7% 6 -33.3%

Dana Point 92629 $787,750 -9.5% 32 10.3%

Foothill Ranch 92610 $620,000 -8.8% 13 8.3%

Fountain Valley 92708 $667,500 -8.7% 16 -70.9%

Fullerton 92831 $510,000 -16.3% 13 -51.9%

Fullerton 92832 $516,000 -14.4% 12 -45.5%

Fullerton 92833 $490,000 -14.0% 32 -52.9%

Fullerton 92835 $907,500 17.9% 14 -33.3%

Garden Grove 92840 $505,000 -11.8% 28 -49.1%

Garden Grove 92841 $471,000 -19.1% 12 -53.8%

Garden Grove 92843 $442,500 -21.3% 9 -65.4%

Garden Grove 92844 $364,500 -31.9% 5 -64.3%

Garden Grove 92845 $590,000 -6.3% 11 -35.3%

Huntington Beach 92646 $717,500 6.7% 44 -34.3%

Huntington Beach 92647 $625,000 -3.8% 31 -18.4%

Huntington Beach 92648 $775,000 -24.4% 57 16.3%

Huntington Beach 92649 $815,000 20.7% 34 -2.9%

Irvine 92602 $650,000 -15.5% 20 -28.6%

Irvine 92603 $943,000 -3.2% 20 -42.9%

Irvine 92604 $581,000 -13.9% 18 -33.3%

Irvine 92606 $735,000 2.4% 15 25.0%

Irvine 92612 $695,000 12.1% 21 -12.5%

Irvine 92614 $611,500 11.2% 21 -16.0%

Irvine 92618 $525,000 -2.2% 19 111.1%

Irvine 92620 $762,500 -12.2% 30 -50.0%

Ladera Ranch 92694 $741,818 -23.9% 42 -39.1%

La Habra 90631 $435,000 14.3% 29 -66.3%

La Palma 90623 $704,500 -1.1% 9 125.0%

Laguna Beach 92651 $1,400,000 -10.5% 27 -27.0%

Laguna Hills 92653 $515,750 1.3% 25 -44.4%

Laguna Niguel 92677 $760,000 5.6% 68 -39.3%

Laguna Woods 92637 $272,500 -7.0% 51 54.5%

Lake Forest 92630 $505,000 -19.2% 42 -42.5%

Los Alamitos 90720 $815,000 -8.4% 14 -39.1%

Midway City 92655 $491,000 -11.9% 5 -44.4%

Mission Viejo 92691 $623,000 -6.5% 38 -46.5%

Mission Viejo 92692 $592,500 -13.1% 55 -27.6%

Newport Beach 92660 $1,600,000 23.1% 28 3.7%

Newport Beach 92661 $2,200,000 74.6% 5 25.0%

Newport Beach 92662 $2,400,000 33.0% 1 -50.0%

Newport Beach 92663 $1,210,000 -28.8% 15 -25.0%

Newport Coast 92657 $2,714,500 3.2% 21 50.0%

Orange 92865 $577,000 -9.1% 23 43.8%

Orange 92866 $605,500 14.9% 6 50.0%

Orange 92867 $590,000 -17.2% 29 -37.0%

Orange 92868 $372,500 -22.3% 13 -7.1%

Orange 92869 $619,500 -10.2% 27 -44.9%

Placentia 92870 $589,000 -4.2% 37 -41.3%

Rancho Santa Margarita 92688 $580,000 -2.1% 58 -32.6%

San Clemente 92672 $1,005,000 8.6% 19 -40.6%

San Clemente 92673 $872,500 -13.7% 39 -33.9%

San Juan Capistrano 92675 $690,000 9.1% 30 -33.3%

Santa Ana 92701 $400,000 28.1% 13 -81.9%

Santa Ana 92703 $390,000 -33.9% 8 -83.3%

Santa Ana 92704 $540,000 -8.6% 20 -71.4%

Santa Ana 92705 $760,000 12.8% 16 -44.8%

Santa Ana 92706 $690,000 14.0% 12 -67.6%

Santa Ana 92707 $417,500 -26.1% 15 -76.9%

Seal Beach 90740 $817,500 -46.4% 12 -36.8%

Stanton 90680 $431,500 8.6% 17 -19.0%

Trabuco/Coto 92679 $895,000 3.1% 45 -19.6%

Tustin 92780 $560,000 0.2% 19 -62.0%

Tustin 92782 $720,000 13.5% 39 30.0%

Villa Park 92861 $1,212,000 1.1% 6 100.0%

Westminster 92683 $579,000 -5.4% 28 -50.9%

Yorba Linda 92886 $825,000 0.0% 34 -50.0%

Yorba Linda 92887 $810,000 -6.3% 19 -17.4%

All resale houses $689,000 0.3% 1,307 -37.5%

All condominiums $435,000 -3.3% 538 -36.0%

All new homes $558,000 -29.0% 279 -16.7%

All homes $605,000 -4.0% 2,124 -35.0%

It's a bit confusing, but am I right in assuming that the big drops above are actually in the volume of sales - all homes prices have dropped 4%, but the volume has dropped 35% for example.

You'd also need to look at it over a longer period to be meaningful - 22 days isn't long especially given the credit crunch.

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This is a better summary of HP deflation in California IMO.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPCAR.shtm

Market specialists have commented that the land / housing market and planning regs (restrictions on supply) to the north, in Oregon and around Seattle, are most similar to ours. Similarly the main industries there are service led, so comparable to the economy in the SE of UK.

RB can you get the data on that region / area? I struggle to find anything of great substance.

Thanks.

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It's a bit confusing, but am I right in assuming that the big drops above are actually in the volume of sales - all homes prices have dropped 4%, but the volume has dropped 35% for example.

You'd also need to look at it over a longer period to be meaningful - 22 days isn't long especially given the credit crunch.

The first set of % numbers are in relation to drop in the median price followed by the percentage drop in number of sales. OC is losing jobs due to overpriced housing and it is a repeat of Great Crash 1--only worse this time around.

IMO SoCal will see drops broadly similar to the UK--around 50-60%. HPI has been broadly similar in the two regions and we share many of the same characteristics as the SoCal market: Shortage of supply and massive demand created by migration/immigration, extremely limited land supply in the coastal corridor, lowest unemployment rate in the US (was around 4.5%), highly paid jobs, huge percentage of the market since 2005 financed by subprime and non-conforming long term fixed rates (15-30 year notes). And despite all of that the market is crashing. Why? Because house prices became unaffordfable in relation to wages..something had to give, and it did. Ditto for the UK.

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The first set of % numbers are in relation to drop in the median price followed by the percentage drop in number of sales. OC is losing jobs due to overpriced housing and it is a repeat of Great Crash 1--only worse this time around.

To get a sense of what is happening in the US, Google-News 'Foreclosures', using 'News'. I've been following the US thing for some time. Remarkable how the media are picking up on this. Also try Google-Images on the same word. 67,900 hits, i.e. that number of images expressing the concept of foreclosure. (Pictures of sold signs, bank notices, sheriffs, bar charts, heat maps of the US, pictures of 'McMansions', hammers, weed-covered front laws. Jaws the shark.

Although, this

http://www.smackdebt.com/picts/debt-consolidation.jpg

is an odd one out (debt consolidation services!!).

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