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isn't there always an irrational stock market surge before the almighty crash????? i mean, its going up on some not-so-good data.....

Naaa. Interest rates in all likelyhood will go down a little before going up to head off inflation (after the election no doubt).

Also perhaps the markets are going up because lots of people are starting to sell-to-rent STR and are putting their money into the markets?

P.S. What time today do we think Brown will call the election (if he does). Will it be some stupid speech from the top of a tank in Iraq a-la Margaret Thatcher.

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Defying Gravity - Wicked

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php?optio...5&Itemid=63

This article doesn't believe it will last:

To summarize, we believe the current fragile boom – one characterized by unprecedented imbalances and maladjustments – can only be sustained by ongoing massive Credit creation. In an increasingly risk-averse world, this poses a colossal risk intermediation challenge. Thus far, the confluence of a highly inflationary global backdrop, extraordinary central bank interventions, and a major expansion of U.S. banking system Credit has sufficed. We, however, view Fed and the U.S. banking system capabilities as constrained and aggressive actions feasible only over the short-term. Importantly, an impaired Wall Street risk intermediation mechanism – the main source of finance behind the past few years of “blow-off” excess - will be hard-pressed to meet challenges and new realities.

Likely, liquidity issues and faltering asset markets will instigate problematic de-leveraging upon highly over-leveraged Credit and economic systems. We expect significant unfolding tumult in the securitization, derivatives, and risk “insurance” marketplaces. We view ballooning Credit insurance and derivatives markets as a bull market phenomenon that won’t withstand the test of the downside of the Credit Cycle. We believe the stock market has of late benefited from a combination of complacency, misperceptions with respect to Fed capabilities, and its newfound status, by default, as favored risk asset class. We see US equities, in particular, highly susceptible to unfolding detrimental financial and economic forces. We expect the economy to soon succumb to recession. California and other inflated real estate Bubble markets are now poised to suffer severe price declines – residential as well as commercial. And we expect contemporary “Wall Street Finance” to face a crisis of confidence – to suffer on all fronts – liquidity, Credit losses and regulatory. Our faltering currency is, as well, a major issue.

Neither do I.

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Is this why gold has dropped $15?
Gold Prices sank in Asian and early London trade on Tuesday, dropping 2.1% from the overnight close in New York – when the Dow Jones index of US equities recorded a new all-time high – to bounce off $732 per ounce and deliver gold's sharpest losses since Aug. 16th.

"Buckle up, it should be an interesting ride," advise the technical team at Mitsui in London. "The precious metals markets have stalled, sparking liquidation."

Pointing to a sharp reversal of the European single currency's surge against the US Dollar, they add that "if the Gold Market were to approach $720 expect the physical demand to accelerate, supporting Gold Prices."

The Euro's sudden 0.7% pullback from Monday's fresh all-time highs helped cap gold's losses to 1.2% by lunchtime in Frankfurt, with the Gold Price in Euros trading at €519 per ounce. Gold Priced in British Pounds slipped 1.6% to dip below £360 per ounce for the first time in a week.

Crude oil prices fell for the third day running, and government bonds also slipped lower as global equities hit a fresh record high on the MSCI index, up more than 0.8% for the session so far.

"A correction in precious metals, specifically gold, could occur due to over-large US futures market positions," as John Reade at UBS warned in a note yesterday. "The metal [had] not seen wide-scale profit taking and we remain cautious about the near-term outlook."

The long position held by speculative traders in Comex gold futures grew by four-fifths in the four weeks ending Sept. 25th. Their bullish position surged from 77% to 84% – a clear sign of over-heating.

The Gold Market has been twice as volatile as US stocks over the last 12 months. Until Tuesday's drop, it had risen for six weeks running.

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http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/node/1372

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Naaa. Interest rates in all likelyhood will go down a little before going up to head off inflation (after the election no doubt).

Also perhaps the markets are going up because lots of people are starting to sell-to-rent STR and are putting their money into the markets?

P.S. What time today do we think Brown will call the election (if he does). Will it be some stupid speech from the top of a tank in Iraq a-la Margaret Thatcher.

As I recall it the vast majority of people in this country were immensely proud at the time that we had a Prime Minister who would not allow the people on the Falkland islands to be invaded and ruled by a people from a country a thousand miles away whose claim on the islands is as tenous as ours.

Not the same thing as Iraq which I think, on the whole, most people could not have cared less about at the time of Blair's greatest adventure.

Do you seriously think enough people are STRing and gambling on the stock market to actuall affect the market. Most people who STR put their money in the bank.

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Naaa. Interest rates in all likelyhood will go down a little before going up to head off inflation (after the election no doubt).

Also perhaps the markets are going up because lots of people are starting to sell-to-rent STR and are putting their money into the markets?

P.S. What time today do we think Brown will call the election (if he does). Will it be some stupid speech from the top of a tank in Iraq a-la Margaret Thatcher.

so close

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7023735.stm

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