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The Colour

"euro Could Replace Dollar"

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Ambrose & co. in the Daily Telegraph disagree. They reckon the euro is going to collapse.

Yeah and pigs wil fly.

Let the trend be your friend and when it comes to the euro it's much more stable than the $$ and the $$ will have a drag on the pound.

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Ambrose & co. in the Daily Telegraph disagree. They reckon the euro is going to collapse.

Some time ago I was much more bullish on the EUR. But since then I have done some research. The Club Med, as Ambrose says, is the problem. Their IRs plunged when they entered the EUR, and therefore property got inflated in an extremely unhealthy way. The price will be either severe depression (with IRs adjusted to Germany), or severe inflation (with IRs adjusted to Club Med), or a split of the Euro-zone in order to give each country the 'right' IRs.

I am bearish on the EUR. But I am more bearish on the USD and especially Sterling short term.

Buy gold.

EDIT: If you can't avoid holding EUR (I can't), try to stick them in a safe German bank. At least they're going to be Deutsche Mark when the zone falls apart. :)

Edited by Goldfinger

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I'm not so sure about Ambrose & co and their predictions. Where exactly is club med? Spain, but where else has a serious property bubble apart from Ireland? I think the ECB will keep interest rates on hold for now and Spain will have to cope with that.

Obviously it is correct what they say about the imbalances, but large changes in the Eurozone aren't going to happen overnight.

There are also advantages to the strong euro - cheaper raw materials for one. For now, at least.

Edited by edwardbear

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