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14,000 Points On The Dow

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Just requested that my pension (admittedly small) go to cash. :lol:

And no I'm not joking and I'm not for one minute suggesting that others should follow, just me and my warped sense of humour.

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My view is the FTSE will rise to 6550 and after that happens get the hell out before a >500pt drop. I expect this in the next month.

Get yourself an account and short the FTSE until say DEC07 and you really can't go far wrong. There is no way its going to maintain its current 6500 until Christmas.

I have some connection with a High St retailer. They are are ordering 35% less stock for this years Christmas market. I think they see a lot of shoppers with tightly closed purses and wallets over the next 12 weeks.

The current stock exchange rallies are merely excellent times to get out before the big one.

ANDY

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over 100 points in under an hour- thats 1 big spike

It's all been good news today, nothing bad out there.

Oh, and Bill Gross said rates will be 3.75% sometime soon so nothing to worry about. The bailer-outers will be in action so may as well throw money at anything you can spell.

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Must be the Chinese, they got plenty of dollars to spend- why have a war when you can totall defeat your enemy with economics- Yanks did it to the Russians, now its China's turn

Anderson shelter on ebay anyone?

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Guest muttley
My view is the FTSE will rise to 6550 and after that happens get the hell out before a >500pt drop. I expect this in the next month.

Why? What's going to happen? Why doesn't it just frop back now?

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I am still here in Texas and touring the State. Times have never been better for US business--the soaring Euro and Pound are being cheered on as US exports bring down the deficit and reduce imports. I have never seen so much building going on and the roads are full of large trucks going backwards and forwards from Mexico and SA. The housing market is crashing everywhere except for a few areas that didn't see much in the way of HPI but it seems that no one really cares as it only affects one fifth of the market.

The consensus seems to be saying that the credit market collapse is worldwide and that the US share of it can be contained. The SM seems to be reflecting the better times ahead for US manufacturing and the thought that arecession can be avoided. I am beginning to think this may be correct as there does not appear to be any signs of recession in the US generally. The economy is too diversified and the demand for US goods seems to be behind the overall sense of optimism. It could be that GC2 will take down house prices, which is a good thing, but leave the overall economy intact as it is not a dependent on housing as the UK.

I fear that the US may have exported a lot of the troubled credit market problems thereby hedging the risk that is now becoming apparent.

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Guest The_Oldie
Just requested that my pension (admittedly small) go to cash. :lol:

And no I'm not joking and I'm not for one minute suggesting that others should follow, just me and my warped sense of humour.

I did that in February, along with all other SM holdings.

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over 100 points in under an hour- thats 1 big spike

With the front page as ever on Bloomberg as the backdrop it is quite incredible. It is still going to the script though, still running on the Euphoria that the FED will pander to their every needs. Does not seem to mater if the rest of the economy goes caput. Although it is not on the front page the US manufacturing figures came in lower than expected today, normally this is a closely watched figure, not so today we have records to break! See the rest of the headlines below, we have seen worse and the DOW has risen so not unusual in today’s detached economy!

Picture1.jpg

post-6129-1191249706_thumb.jpg

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Guest The_Oldie
Oi Oldie are you sure there is enough room in this liferaft? :lol:

Just keep your knees tucked tightly under your chin and we'll be fine :lol:.

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This is Bloombergs take on it.

U.S. Stocks Gain, Pushing Dow Average to Record; Lennar Gains

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=homeU.S. Stocks Gain, Pushing Dow Average to Record; Lennar Gains

By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record, as investors speculated the worst may be over for banks and construction companies hurt by subprime mortgage losses.

Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc., the two biggest U.S. homebuilders, gained after Citigroup Inc. said recent declines in the stocks have made them attractive. Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage provider, led financial shares higher after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the credit slump may be ending. Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, rallied after saying it expects ``to return to a normal earnings environment'' in the fourth quarter.

The Dow average added 109.09, or 0.8 percent, to 14,004.72, above its July 19 closing high of 14,000.41. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 10.85, or 0.7 percent, to 1,537.6 at 10:12 a.m. in New York. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 19.82, or 0.7 percent, to 2,721.32.

``There are some examples out there that we have our hands around the subprime problem,'' said Igor Golalic, who manages $2.5 billion at Federated Investment Inc. in Pittsburgh. ``There's a perception that the worst is over, now that the Fed is on our side.''

Greenspan said in a speech in London that that lenders were seeking to buy longer-term assets of lower quality and ``that is a good sign.'' Stocks also climbed after the Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing in the U.S. grew in September at the slowest pace in six months and a gauge of prices declined, giving the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates.

Homebuilders climbed after Citi advised buying shares of Pulte Homes Inc., Centex Corp., D.R. Horton, Lennar and Ryland Group Inc., saying the builders may rally.

``It is precisely when things have gotten this bad that the stocks start looking good,'' wrote Citi analysts led by Stephen Kim.

Lennar gained 77 cents to $23.42. D.R. Horton rose 33 cents to $13.14.

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Just keep your knees tucked tightly under your chin and we'll be fine :lol:.

I bet you say that to all the girls :rolleyes:

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Guest The_Oldie
I bet you say that to all the girls :rolleyes:

Trust you to lower the tone of the conversation :lol:.

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This is Bloombergs take on it.

U.S. Stocks Gain, Pushing Dow Average to Record; Lennar Gains

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=homeU.S. Stocks Gain, Pushing Dow Average to Record; Lennar Gains

By Lynn Thomasson

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record, as investors speculated

</snip>

the rest is superfluous.

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the rest is superfluous.

Exactly, they have finally put an article on about manufacturing data out today that the speculators seem to have ignored. After all data is for geeks and if you snooze you loose in this market, woop woop and much fist swinging. :lol:

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing Index Falls to 52

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. grew in September at the slowest pace in six months, raising concern the housing slump was hobbling other parts of the economy.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of factory activity fell more than forecast to 52 from 52.9 in August. A reading over 50 signifies growth and the index averaged 53.9 in 2006.

A worsening housing slump has trimmed demand for construction equipment and threatens to hurt consumer spending. Stronger growth overseas and a weaker dollar have boosted exports, providing a source of strength that's helped ensure manufacturing keeps expanding.

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I am still here in Texas and touring the State. Times have never been better for US business--the soaring Euro and Pound are being cheered on as US exports bring down the deficit and reduce imports. I have never seen so much building going on and the roads are full of large trucks going backwards and forwards from Mexico and SA. The housing market is crashing everywhere except for a few areas that didn't see much in the way of HPI but it seems that no one really cares as it only affects one fifth of the market.

The consensus seems to be saying that the credit market collapse is worldwide and that the US share of it can be contained. The SM seems to be reflecting the better times ahead for US manufacturing and the thought that arecession can be avoided. I am beginning to think this may be correct as there does not appear to be any signs of recession in the US generally. The economy is too diversified and the demand for US goods seems to be behind the overall sense of optimism. It could be that GC2 will take down house prices, which is a good thing, but leave the overall economy intact as it is not a dependent on housing as the UK.

I fear that the US may have exported a lot of the troubled credit market problems thereby hedging the risk that is now becoming apparent.

I suspect you've exchanged your Bear-spectacles for Rose-tinted shades.

Rising oil prices will make Texas look great but there are another 49 states that won't be sitting so pretty.

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So if you have lots of bad recession news, that's really good news 'cos it'll make the Fed react to the bad recession news by reducing interest rates to stave off the recession that would've happened if they didn't although the dollar will plunge again and it won't make people buy more houses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aLepjRCRQ3go

A famous series of jokes uses the actor Chuck Norris, martial artist and star of ``Walker, Texas Ranger,'' as a paragon of masculinity and omnipotence. ``Guns don't kill people, Chuck Norris kills people,'' goes one. ``Chuck Norris doesn't get wet, water gets Chuck Norris,'' goes another.

Mark Gilbert saw it coming. again.

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Guest Shedfish
the rest is superfluous.

yep.

it looks to me like the markets are telegraphing a haymaker. in the manner of Charlie Chaplin

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While August was characterised by panic selling, September saw a wave of panic buying, as investors who failed to get in at the market lows thought they may miss the train. It was a case of get in at any price.

Stock markets are currently living a lie of gigantic proportions and we are moving towards a crash of even greater magnitude of that seen in August (i.e. a downward move of over 15%).

Why?

1) Recent indicators from all the major economic blocks (except China) point to a global slowdown and not just a US one. While commentators and investment brokers continue to talk up a global boom, they are not taking heed of the early warning signs.

2) A 0.5% rate cut in the world's largest economy at a time when energy prices are at record high levels should not be seen as a ringing endorsement of the Fed's outlook for the US economy. The Fed has either cut rates because it wants to experience the excitement of a further Wall Street rally or because the Fed recognise there is something fundamentally wrong within the US economy. If it is the latter and let's face it that is the Fed's only remit, then they should not exactly be doing cartwheels down Wall Street.

3) We have absolutely no idea as of yet as to the impact of the subprime issue on the earnings of the major financials. We will start getting earnings reports in the coming weeks for the banks and hedge funds and based on UBS today, there may be plenty of bad news out there. This could exacerbate credit concerns and squeeze the stock markets.

4) The recent spike in oil prices cannot be explained by real global demand and it is worth noting that every recent recession has been preceded by a serious (oft unexplained) spike in energy prices. While we may not be entering a recession, there is definitely a connection between the current demise of the US dollar and the rise in energy prices, in the same way as there is a major disconnection between the performance of US stocks and the performance of the US economy.

5) The US consumer is broadly expected to spend less in the final quarter and again into next year. The US citizen has a negative savings rating and with banks set to be meaner on foot of the subprime fiasco, there is considerable downside risk to US consumption in the coming quarters. As consumer spending makes up 70% of US GDP, this outlook is hardly a cause for celebration for US stocks.

Reality is going to have to hit home eventually. And the idea that the prospect of further rate cuts from the Fed is good for stocks is surely only a temporary illusion. The DOW hitting 14,000 on poor economic data and an uncertain outlook is not reassuring. In fact it's a huge cause for concern.

Edited by Sebastian

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