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" Property, Clear Slowdown" - Says Bank Of England Today 1 Oct.

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"Mortgage lending slows, says Bank

The property market is going through a clear slowdown, according to figures from the Bank of England.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell in August to 109,000, down from 120,000 a year ago. "

They are looking a tad panicky - must keep HPI going, or preserve values at least, it's all just pathetic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7021599.stm

Edited by The Last Bear

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Will they?

Well their remit was to manage inflation and not house prices…

What’s the bet that housing now sneaks into the CPI basket… Just incase it starts to collapse and the Bank Of England need to jump in..

Otherwise.

Chinese goods are getting more expensive.

Fuel is getting more expensive.

Food and high street inflation.

Everything in the CPI basket essentially.

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And, apparently, they have managed inflation - now 1.8% - the yanks have dropped their rates, sterling is still up, everything in the garden is rosy.

Rates can come down again.

I just hope the credit crunch means mortgage and loan rates detach further from the BOE base rate so that they realise that cutting rates is not going to work this time.

But, then again, it probably will.

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How is there a property slowdown when we are still seeing positive HPI? Why is nobody challenging these statements? The BBC keep talking about how the housing market is slowing but there are no negative YOY figures yet, is this a premeptive strike to keep HPI rolling?

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Think about it. The banks had no choice but to raise rates in the shortterm. A rate cut right now will cripple their margins. So price in a nice Rate Hike before hand and all your trackers will effectively stand still. Banks happy, customer thinks hes got a cut (when in fact hese just stood still) so he feels happy (mug).

If the BoE do drop rates this month they will lose all credibility. Merv the swerve has been standing his ground of late over the Rock affair. But I'm betting the pressure on him from No 10 is going to be monumental now. Can't be having unhappy punters leading into a snap election now can we.

Edited by jpjh

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How is there a property slowdown when we are still seeing positive HPI? Why is nobody challenging these statements? The BBC keep talking about how the housing market is slowing but there are no negative YOY figures yet, is this a premeptive strike to keep HPI rolling?

Think about what you are saying. A prerequisite for YoY falls are MoM falls. They are reporting MoM falls and stagnating demand.

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"Mortgage lending slows, says Bank

The property market is going through a clear slowdown, according to figures from the Bank of England.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell in August to 109,000, down from 120,000 a year ago. "

They are looking a tad panicky - must keep HPI going, or preserve values at least, it's all just pathetic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7021599.stm

Why do you think they are "looking a tad panicky"? The article just states the fact of reduced mortgage lending, which is an indication that higher interest rates are having some kind of effect. Are they supposed to ignore it?

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Think about what you are saying. A prerequisite for YoY falls are MoM falls. They are reporting MoM falls and stagnating demand.

TBF, if it's big enough, you only need one MoM fall. ;)

IIRC, the autumn months Sept - December last year showed big increases, so we ought to see those fall out shortly. Nationwide figures are:

September 06 - 1.3%

October 0.7

November 1.4

Dec 1.2

So if those next 3 months are flat, you will see ~3% fall out of the YoY figure.

Any actual drop will obviously look worse.

Then when people see a really small increase YOY, it will probably hit them.

And why do you need a YoY fall to know prices are coming down?

Why does what happened 11 months ago have a bearing on the current market?

It's alright I know the answer to both those: So Sun Readers can get it.

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Some of you muppets have been here for years, surely you know the drill by now?

As HPI approaches zero YOY, the BoE cuts rates to stimulate the market. As most of you are aware, the UK economy is very dependent upon HPI and MEW so why on earth would the government/BoE take action that causes HPI to turn negative?

Pretty simple really. Anything else is just wishful thinking.

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Think about it. The banks had no choice but to raise rates in the shortterm. A rate cut right now will cripple their margins. So price in a nice Rate Hike before hand and all your trackers will effectively stand still. Banks happy, customer thinks hes got a cut (when in fact hese just stood still) so he feels happy (mug).

If the BoE do drop rates this month they will lose all credibility. Merv the swerve has been standing his ground of late over the Rock affair. But I'm betting the pressure on him from No 10 is going to be monumental now. Can't be having unhappy punters leading into a snap election now can we.

Are you saying that you think they'll hike when you say "price in a nice Rate Hike before hand". Or are you saying that by giving the impression that a cut is likely and then not cutting they are effectively pricing in a hike?

Ta.

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How is there a property slowdown when we are still seeing positive HPI? Why is nobody challenging these statements? The BBC keep talking about how the housing market is slowing but there are no negative YOY figures yet, is this a premeptive strike to keep HPI rolling?

Just to try an explain this one, the reason we haven't seen the yoy or the MoM falls yet.....wait for it.....is simple the sale price of the houses closing now (Oct 1) were struck 12-16 weeks ago ie June 1 to July 1. As the credit crunch kicked in during August we will still see some level of rise when the figures come out next month, however coming into xmas - it all changes. Believe me I am looking for a house at the moment and it aint a pretty picture for the estate agents. Belligerent house sellers not wanting to drop any further than they already have because they read HPI still exists, buyers spotting that the market is turning and seeing the bearish news. All this time and the Estate agents aren't selling nearly enough.

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"Mortgage lending slows, says Bank

The property market is going through a clear slowdown, according to figures from the Bank of England.

The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell in August to 109,000, down from 120,000 a year ago. "

They are looking a tad panicky - must keep HPI going, or preserve values at least, it's all just pathetic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7021599.stm

WTF... Thats why they were raising rates to stop the asset bubbles.

Oh no it wasn't they raised rates to target inflation........ SO SHUT UP ABOUT HOUSES AND LOOK AT THE INFLATION FIGURES.

Hold. Just a Hold.

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Why do you think they are "looking a tad panicky"? The article just states the fact of reduced mortgage lending, which is an indication that higher interest rates are having some kind of effect. Are they supposed to ignore it?

BBC non-bias :-

"Last week one of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders, the Nationwide building society, reported that annual house price inflation had fallen for the third month in a row, to stand at just 9%. "

Just 4 times CPI !!!! Whoever wrote this piece could power a wind turbine single handed (or mouthed) with spinning like this.

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BBC non-bias :-

"Last week one of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders, the Nationwide building society, reported that annual house price inflation had fallen for the third month in a row, to stand at just 9%. "

Just 4 times CPI !!!! Whoever wrote this piece could power a wind turbine single handed (or mouthed) with spinning like this.

Compared to 22% or whatever it was a few years ago it is "just" 9%, but yeah that is a bit ridiculous. I thought the OP meant the BoE was desperate. The BBC is desperate, but that's a general issue in shoddy journalism.

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