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Ash4781

'stagnation' Predicted In Northern Ireland Property Market

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http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/p...icleID=18298824

'Stagnation' in Northern Ireland property market

28th September 2007 17:14

Northern Ireland's property market is predicted to stagnate over the coming months as house prices begin to level out.

After the buy-to-let sector had been a vital part in driving the country's recent house price boom, investors are now beginning to move on, according to Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) head of research Joe Fry.

Property investors are thought to be attempting to make short-term gains in terms of capital appreciation in properties in the north England as well, he said.

While opinion is shared on the fact the investment sector has driven price growth on the country's property ladder, Mr Fry negates the possibility of a housing market crash unless the recent US sub-prime mortgage market crisis instigates a major recession in Northern Ireland.

"I think we'll see a bit of stagnation, maybe a five to ten per cent fall but no real collapse," he said.

Property prices in Northern Ireland have risen by 51 per cent over the last 12 months, at a rate of over £200 per day, according to figures in the University of Ulster house price index of Ireland....

+51% to -5 to 10% stagnation.

Put that into the model!

:blink:

Edited by Ash4781

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http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/p...icleID=18298824

+51% to -5 to 10% stagnation.

Put that into the model!

:blink:

Could it be anything other than stagnation!

They have a shortage of houses, the 50% rise in one year was caused and maintained by strong fundamentals and although it was principally investors that drove it to that level in the first place and they are now moving on the first time buyers with the lowest wages in the UK are bound to want a piece of the action. :lol:

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Excuse me for differing. The number of houses for sale on propertynews (one of the main property sites in NI) in January this year was 4000 - it is now 19200 and rising weekly. There is no shortage of houses. There is a shortage of affordable houses. Investors left 2 years ago to move to the North of England market. The speculators took over and they were in for capital gain and the greater fool. FTB's also left the market. Now we have forests of for sale signs on the lamposts. Now we have fading pictures in EA windows. Now we have houses going sale agreed then returning to for sale a few weeks later. This market has tanked.

Hey, I am on your side, it was entirely tongue in cheek and if you look at my details I am a 500 posting bear!

I just love the bu$$sh!T that is written in the press. NI are heading for a colossal crash, it is the least sustainable in the whole UK if you look at the antiquated earnings/house prices ratios.

I think it will be the fist place in the UK to YOY negative.

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I think that the prices could crash by 30% in one year.

Easily. Apparently they went up by 50% in one year, so a drop of 30% wouldn't even return them to the price they were a year ago - which was still expensive.

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The whole Northern Ireland economy is held together by public money.

The vast majority of people work in the public sector.

Of the few who work in the private sector, the chances are the only reason the company they work for is profitable is that Invest NI (i.e. tax payers money!) is throwing money at them.

If Gordon Brown removes public money from NI, either by cutting civil service posts and/or stopping the whole invest NI think, NI is well and truly f*cked.

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If prices in NI tank by 30% in a year, which is very possible IMHO, how badly would that affect the UK prices as a whole as it was the meteoric rises in NI that helped to hold UK HPI up for the last two years?

Any number crunchers out there want to take a look?....... my maths are as good as Gordon Browns. :huh:

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The median full-time wage in Northern Ireland is £20,800 p/a. What f**king "strong fundamentals" are there that allow property to be so highly priced? The crash will hit here hardest.

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Of the few who work in the private sector, the chances are the only reason the company they work for is profitable is that Invest NI (i.e. tax payers money!) is throwing money at them.

Hit the nail on the head with that one, keep an eye on the news when Invest NI team up with a company for a press release saying they will be creating 50 jobs locally, Invest NI gives them massive wad of money to support this and a year later the company has recruited 5 people making a massive amount of money. Seen it happen!

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Did NI prices really rise 50% in one year. So if somebody bought a property for 300 thou they flipped it for 450 1 year later?

It just sounds too insane to be possible. Surely even a 30% drop would only be a correction taking into account the massive HPI?

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Guest Shedfish

how does a massively overpriced market with zero forseeable capital growth and negative yield stagnate?

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'Stagnation' in Northern Ireland property market

28th September 2007 17:14

Northern Ireland's property market is predicted to stagnate over the coming months as house prices begin to level out.

After the buy-to-let sector had been a vital part in driving the country's recent house price boom, investors are now beginning to move on, according to Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE) head of research Joe Fry.

Property investors are thought to be attempting to make short-term gains in terms of capital appreciation in properties in the north England as well, he said.

While opinion is shared on the fact the investment sector has driven price growth on the country's property ladder, Mr Fry negates the possibility of a housing market crash unless the recent US sub-prime mortgage market crisis instigates a major recession in Northern Ireland.

"I think we'll see a bit of stagnation, maybe a five to ten per cent fall but no real collapse," he said.

Property prices in Northern Ireland have risen by 51 per cent over the last 12 months, at a rate of over £200 per day, according to figures in the University of Ulster house price index of Ireland....

These investors are like locusts. Moving from one area to the next in swarms and creating devastation to the local populace.

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how does a massively overpriced market with zero forseeable capital growth and negative yield stagnate?

...it won't. 100% correct, guaranteed! ;):D

The average house price in Northern Ireland is £240K, the average income £21k. So the average house is 11.5x average income. Historically, the average price/earnings ratio for UK house prices was around 4x income since WWII.

Currently our market has completely stalled. Nothing is selling, that I can see. There is daily evidence of small drops (if you count £20K-£35-£75K drops as small). Also there are an awful lot of forsale signs going up.

As Tara said: We were the last to join the cheap credit party. This is our first party. We binged on the cheap credit, taking far too much far too quickly. Now we can't take any more credit of any kind. Now the room is spinning and our legs are wobbly. :blink: We will soon waken up, on the floor, with one hell of a hangover and wondering what happened to us. :unsure: Why are our trousers round our ankles and our pockets empty? :o It will get very, very messy here. :(

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http://www.independent.ie/business/europea...as-1092435.html

THE vast majority of canny investors have moved out of Irish property. After all, yields are even below deposit rates, while prices have probably not yet hit rock bottom.

But there is still a huge appetite for overseas property investment -- from Eddie Hobbs' Brendan Investments, to villas in golf resorts in Spain and Portugal.

As a result, investment in overseas property is still strong, with Irish investors spending over €4.2bn so far this year, a similar amount as in the same period last year. Investment in the UK accounted for about 65 per cent of this, compared to about 75 per cent last year. But is this wise?

Could they be using euro mortgages ?

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The median full-time wage in Northern Ireland is £20,800 p/a. What f**king "strong fundamentals" are there that allow property to be so highly priced? The crash will hit here hardest.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7022160.stm

Not much point in working for a living when you look at the recent story above. I work it out at benefits £40k over 30 months which equates to £1300 a month. To "earn" ,after tax, that amount you need to paid over £21k.* So why work if you can get this sort of benefit. The person admitted the offence and paid back the money - but it was an interest free loan!! There does not seem to be a problem with someone being able to claim this amount in the first place!

*Ballpark figures, \i'm sure someone will correct my calcs!

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Easily. Apparently they went up by 50% in one year, so a drop of 30% wouldn't even return them to the price they were a year ago - which was still expensive.

Has anybody taken the time to work this out?!!! A 30% drop in todays prices is pretty much the same as a 50% increase in last years prices.

ie house price 1 year ago 100k, house price now 150k (+50%). Now for the science bit, 30% of 150k is 45k, so 30% drop would give 105k.

Giving a net, modest and arguably sensible hpi of 5%.

<<ski skool>> comes to mind. ;)

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