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Buy Lumber.

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Lumber has fallen close to long term resistance in line with seasonal trends and has rallied from October into early spring for past ten years. Last week commercial long contracts hit what appears to be a record high in spite of the bearish outlook on the US housing market. Extremes of commercial trader activity seem to be pretty accurate at predicting this market. Large traders are net short and small specs are also very bearish.

I recently read Larry Williams' COT report book. Larry likes to use the news letter opinions and small spec positions as contrary indicators. Applying his methodology to the current set-up, in light of the comm longs, lumber looks like a buy.


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