Statistics required

[Time to raise the rents.]

Did property drop 70% last night?

Here in Sweden, I've been a bit busy with the family and may have missed it. He did in fact say it would be overnight, but which night is what concerns me.

[Thats got potential]

I think the statistics will show it is unlikely to happen on a Saturday night because that just wouldn't be nice as the banks won't be open on Sunday.

But could it happen in the early hours of Monday morning I wonder?.

[///AJD]

Interesting that the Sunday Times Money section was pretty bearish this morning.

Looks like the media could really impact sentiment. In the money section, buyers are told not to worry about buying unless they might sell in 2 yrs, when the risk of neg equity will be high. Crikey - this is pretty alarming stuff, isn't it?

[Time to raise the rents.]

Possibly due to the fact that HPC was down for so long, the market has held. But now that HPC is back up and in conjunction with the Sunday Times, the risk of 70% overnight falls grows stronger.....

[///AJD]

LOL. We do need Bulls here.

[Troll]

TTRTR,

You'd be surprised how much the price of a house can change overnight. After about 6pm when most of the estate agents have closed and most people are settling down for the evening, the number of potential buyers drops dramatically. This leads inevitably to a dramatic fall in prices. At about 5 in he morning when most people are asleep never mind interested in buying a house, the average price can drop as much as 93.34%. Obviously as more people awake and estate agents begin to open again, there is a dramatic increase in demand. By 8 o'clock the price has increased once again and the boom / bust cycle starts all over again.

[Time to raise the rents.]

So if I understand correctly, what you're saying is that 70%+ falls are possible when the majority of the population are unconcious?

I'd tend to agree with that assumption.

[BBB]

Interesting that the Sunday Times Money section was pretty bearish this morning.

hi AJD

it wouldnt be the first time that they've been bearish on the market in recent months, i'd say at least twice previously in the last 12-18 months they've had one of their sensational illustrations of houses going over the edge of a cliff. i remember saying to my mrs, what sensational BS . the money section is notorious IMO of making mountains out of molehills.

regards BBB.

[///AJD]

BBB,

Interesting you think so, I've always thought they've come across as fairly bullish even when talking about possible falls.

Perhaps this is just my perception. As you might be aware I'm not a bear or bull but a property slug. I'm renting so have a wish to see bear type things happening, but sceptical about whether sentiment is a big enough driver so not adverse to bull views.

[BBB]

BBB,

Interesting you think so, I've always thought they've come across as fairly bullish even when talking about possible falls.

thanks for the kind ear (you dont get much of that around here) i would have thought that a large picture of a house going over the edge of a cliff was about as bearish as bearish comes.......and remember this was a good while ago.

cheers BBB

[Time to raise the rents.]

Come to think of it, don't houses fall off the Norfolk coastline?

If the gradient were 70%+ and it happened overnight, I suspect Bruno could claim to have been proven to be correct!

That statement again:

"Houses will fall 70% overnight!".

[woody]

This thread seems to have split into two themes - 70% falls and whether the Time is bullish.

1. 70% Falls Overnight

I think what Bruno was trying to say was that there would be massive falls taking place over the course of a few months which, with hindsight, will appear like "overnight" as it was in the 1989 crash (or so many people think).

We have seen 5% come of the ASKING PRICES in London (supposedly) in the last month so it will be interesting to see whether that continues and is shown in the Land Registry figures. Otherwise, Bruno will be eating his shorts.

Anyway, TTRTR and BBB must agree, however, that the market is looking decidely shaky - wot with the press, the anecdotal evidence, the debt etc.. just taunting. 70%? I don't think so - whether overnight or in 3 months...

2. The Times

The interesting comparison is between the Times of today and the times of 1989-1990. Back then, it seems to me that they were always being bullish even in the light of dodgy statistics - "plenty of light at the end of the tunnel".

Now it seems the message is a little more like, "plenty of light, but plenty more tunnel to start/go through until we see it again".

In know that newspapers change over years - there are a few notable examples of this. Sensationalist reports sell newspapers. The times does try a little harder than that normally but struggles to conceal its weak evidence to support articles whatever they might say.