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Bba Gives Us Some Decent Figures At Last

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Guest grumpy-old-man
mortgage for house purchase in August 61051

down 9% MoM

down 14% YoY

other secured lending

down 15% YoY

even the average loan is down MoM

that's pretty significant then.

isn't August traditionally the best for house sales, loans etc ??

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those are the lowest august approvals for home purchase since I can trace records back to 2003

This will have no effect on the soaring housing market, there is a shortage of houses, didn't you know? Clearly most people can't find a house to buy so most mortgages are not used anyway, this is a sign of the weak giving up hope, not a change in sentiment! ;)

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
This will have no effect on the soaring housing market, there is a shortage of houses, didn't you know? Clearly most people can't find a house to buy so most mortgages are not used anyway, this is a sign of the weak giving up hope, not a change in sentiment! ;)

True. I went into an estate agent last week

"I'm afraid there aren't any houses left, sir!"

Staggering. I have no idea what I'm going to do with my 190% 12X mortgage approval now.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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Good news indeed.

And this seems to fit in with what I've seen in my local market where the number of houses and flats for sale has been growing consistently since the beginning of the year.

We need to see this sort of slowing turnover to happen as an incentive to make sellers reduce their prices - we already seen this starting with Rightmove's latest report on falling asking prices.

Today's other report from Nationwide was also interesting and had glimmers of hope.

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http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=10980

David Dooks, BBA director of statistics, said:

"With house price inflation still in double digits, we might have expected stronger gross lending in August. However we are seeing a similar level to last year, which suggests that volumes are lower. Other than the current spate of remortgaging, loan approval numbers also endorse our view that customer demand was starting to moderate even before the September difficulties in the financial markets."

"The long-term net repayment of card debt continued, while borrowing through loans and overdrafts also fell in August, giving a subdued picture of consumer credit again."

Mortgage Lending

# When compared to August 2006, house purchase approvals were down 14% by number and 7% by value; remortgaging approvals were up 4% by number and up 11% by value; while approvals for equity withdrawal were down 16% by number and down 9% by value.

links please....

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Guest grumpy-old-man
but nationwide figure still show positive HPI. whats going on? :blink:

anomalies in the stats, there will be plenty more of this to come. :ph34r:

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So the Building Societies figures were down significantly, BBA figures down significantly ... the BOE figures must surely go down significantly or am I missing something / someone ? Oh yes the sub prime boys .. cant believe their figures will be anything but down.

Nationwide figures dont ring true or they are lagging.

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So the Building Societies figures were down significantly, BBA figures down significantly ... the BOE figures must surely go down significantly or am I missing something / someone ? Oh yes the sub prime boys .. cant believe their figures will be anything but down.

Nationwide figures dont ring true or they are lagging.

BOE should be down significantly as well - I think a lot of the sub prime boys are sub divisions of the banks or building society figures.

Land reg tomorrow will be interesting and BOE on monday.

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I would be interested to know whether the reduction in credit card and overdraft debt is due to a worry on the part of the consumer, who is voluntarily reigning in spending, or worry on the part of the bank, who are withdrawing credit.

AND...

Look at the actual figures in the pdf.

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/09/82/stats270907.pdf

In the table on page 3: Average Value of loan for home purchase

These are the figures for this year

June - 159600 (all time high)

July - 156900

August - 153800

The drop from June to August is 3.634%

In 2005, the biggest drop was 2.4% and that was July to October, so a longer period.

I wish there were a larger number of years to analyse in here, but the drop in advances is really important, and as I mentioned on the NWide thread, it could be because the poorer quality houses are no longer selling and so the good quality ones skew the market upwards. Once the poorer ones start to come through with lower prices, we will see a more mearish picture I am sure.

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mortgage for house purchase in August 61051

down 9% MoM

down 14% YoY

other secured lending

down 15% YoY

even the average loan is down MoM

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/09/82/stats270907.pdf

Lies, all lies. Nationwide and Gordon's LR Index say the market is going up! HOw can it be rising is mortgage data shows the market is in a sharp decline??

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I would be interested to know whether the reduction in credit card and overdraft debt is due to a worry on the part of the consumer, who is voluntarily reigning in spending, or worry on the part of the bank, who are withdrawing credit.

AND...

Look at the actual figures in the pdf.

http://www.bba.org.uk/content/1/c6/01/09/82/stats270907.pdf

In the table on page 3: Average Value of loan for home purchase

These are the figures for this year

June - 159600 (all time high)

July - 156900

August - 153800

The drop from June to August is 3.634%

In 2005, the biggest drop was 2.4% and that was July to October, so a longer period.

I wish there were a larger number of years to analyse in here, but the drop in advances is really important, and as I mentioned on the NWide thread, it could be because the poorer quality houses are no longer selling and so the good quality ones skew the market upwards. Once the poorer ones start to come through with lower prices, we will see a more mearish picture I am sure.

Um . . . so the average value of loans is decreasing, and yet the statistics are being skewed because of a higher proportion of well priced homes?

I'd have thought a drop in average loan value implied quite the opposite, in so far as it's any indication of anything at all.

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I have tended to ignore the loan size although I did mention it in my OP. The loan size could increase because lenders are offering 100% mortgage rather than 95% or decrease because the opposite is happening.

The approvals figure is the big one this shows the demand out there and it is dropping like a stone. And these figures were for August!!

September has been truly awful in comparison - goodness knows what the figures will be next month.

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September has been truly awful in comparison - goodness knows what the figures will be next month.

How do you know or is this supposition based on the NR panic and credit crunch ?

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How do you know or is this supposition based on the NR panic and credit crunch ?

estate agents and mortgage brokers I deal with (I'm an IFA) have told me it is dead as a dodo. A lot of mortgage brokers looking to commercial finance to save them and IFAs like me not having done a mortgage for several months (I'm turning away sub prime and self cert cases and telling the prime cases to wait until march) concentrating on general financial planning and investments.

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Um . . . so the average value of loans is decreasing, and yet the statistics are being skewed because of a higher proportion of well priced homes?

I'd have thought a drop in average loan value implied quite the opposite, in so far as it's any indication of anything at all.

Um... Good point. :o

As an explanation of my p1sspoor arguments:

My point on the NWide thread was that it was possible for low volumes of good quality homes to increase the House Price Index for Nationwide. But we had no view of the volume of transactions through NWide, so couldn't tell. If the BBA transactions are applied to NWide as indicative, then that would explain why their House Price figures were going up.

The BBA figures are loan figures rather than prices and probably (as crown mentioned), there may not have been much to infer from them, so I was wrong to do so.

Sorry.

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