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Housing-Market / UK Housing

Sep 25, 2007 - 02:15 AM

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK Housing market is teetering on the brink of a crash led by the buy to let sector investors jumping ship. But the messages coming from the major banks and UK central bank are still benign. In many ways the situation is reminiscent of the initial stages of the the early 1990's property bust, which was also accompanied by soothing statements that ignored the facts on the ground as this article will illustrate.

Firstly, The Market Oracle Outlook for UK House Prices

The Market Oracle forecast as of 22nd of August 07 has been for a 15% drop in UK house prices over the next 2 years ( UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth). The impending peak in the UK housing market was warned of on 1st May 2007 UK Housing Market Heading for a Property Crash , prior to which analysis supported a continuing rise in the UK housing market despite the slump in the US housing market. UK House Prices continue to Rise whilst the US Housing Market Slumps - 25th Feb. 07, Why UK House prices continue to rise ! - 14th Oct 06.

Current Opinions Amongst Major Institutions

Bank of England - The U. K. housing market remains in good shape despite turmoil in financial markets, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Kate Barker - 20th Sept 07

Halifax Bank of Scotland - UK's largest mortgage lender said a crash was unlikely as fundamentals remain strong. Also that the credit crunch is likely to result in cuts in UK interest rates and thus supportive of house prices - Martin Ellis, Chief economist- 18th Sept 07

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) - Only 10% chance of a 1990's style housing market crash, Simon Rubinsohn - 18th Sept 07. This is a barely a month after mr Rubinsohn recommending buy to let investments - “people who were thinking of dipping their toe into the equity market may now be tempted to forget about stocks and buy to let instead”. (The Independant).

Paragon, Mortgage Company - "the buy-to-let market was still strong"

House Price News from 1989 !

The Times TUE 03 JAN 1989 Agents optimistic about house prices A leading national firm of estate agents believes a collapse in the property market in 1989 is highly unlikely. Strutt and Parker has completed a review of 1988 trends, dominated by panic buying in the summer, then a London-led slowdown in the last q...

The Times FRI 06 JAN 1989 Shortage of teachers in Essex linked to soaring house prices Essex faces a chronic shortages of teachers because of soaring house prices, according to a survey by the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers. Eight per cent of teachers are moving from the Basildon and mid-Essex area to ot...

The Times WED 11 JAN 1989 A realistic new year;House prices;Residential Property The owner of a two-bedroom flat in St John's Wood, London, was advised by an estate agent last summer to offer it at Pounds 170,000. After five months of frustration he has asked Roy Brooks to find a buyer at the considerably lower price of Pounds 1...

The Times MON 06 MAR 1989 House prices recover House prices, suffering from the effects of interest rate increases, showed a slight recovery in February, rising by 1.6 per cent, compared with a fall of 0.8 per cent in January, Halifax Building Society reports today. The index shows that over the...

The Times WED 08 MAR 1989 Agents forecast up to 20% rise in house prices near route;Channel tunnel rail link Property prices in Kent in areas within reach of stations on the Channel tunnel rail link are likely to rise by 10 to 20 per cent because of improved access to London the line will bring, according to estate agents in the county. They believe that th...

The Times WED 22 MAR 1989 Marking time;House prices in Britain House prices in Britain are likely to stagnate this year, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. It expects high demand in the Midlands and North but a slowing down in the South.

The Times WED 29 MAR 1989 House trend bucked;Quarterly prices Property in the north of England is showing steady price increases against the trend elsewhere, according to the Halifax Building Society. The average quarterly price change is zero, varying from falls of 5 per cent to rises of 5 per cent. In contra...

The Times FRI 07 APR 1989 North booms;House prices House prices in northern areas, including the North-west, Yorkshire and Humberside, increased by 10 per cent in the last three months compared with a rise of only 1 per cent in the London area, the Nationwide Anglia Building Society's new house marke...

The Times MON 10 APR 1989 10% house price rise forecast House prices in Britain could rise by up to 10 per cent this year, although the South of England will see only a modest if any increase, it is predicted in a report published today by the House Builders' Federation. Even in the South, however, house ...

The Times WED 12 APR 1989 Housing reverses North-South divide;House price survey The North-South housing divide, which favored the South last year, has been reversed, the Halifax Building Society reports in its house price survey yesterday. Prices took off in the South in the first quarter of last year while the economic boom wa...

The Times WED 26 JUL 1989 Tunnel line cuts price of houses;Channel tunnel A number of properties blighted by their closeness to the Channel tunnel terminal at Cheriton in Kent have been put up for sale at 20 per cent below market value. The 26 properties are in the villages of Newington, Peene and Frogholt and are being so...

The Times FRI 11 AUG 1989 House prices will not rise until 1991 House prices are unlikely to start rising again until 1991, according to Black Horse Relocation, which published its annual report on the housing market yesterday. The announcement came as the Building Societies Association announced that 70 per cent...

The Times SAT 30 SEP 1989 House prices down by 3.8% House prices in London fell by 3.8 per cent in the last three months, leaving them 16 per cent lower than at the height of the property boom last year, according to Barnard Marcus estate agents (Our Property Correspondent writes). That drop was the s...

The Sunday Times SUN 05 NOV 1989 House prices may rise next spring BRITAIN'S depressed housing market could pick up much sooner than expected, according to a forecast to be published this week. The Morgan Grenfell bank believes the housing market has reached a point where recovery is in sight. It says rising income...

The Times THU 09 NOV 1989 House prices 'to rise' Property prices in London, the south-east and East Anglia will recover next year and begin to increase by about 10 per cent a year, according to Morgan Grenfell, the merchant bankers, in a report on the housing market published yesterday. The recover...

The Times FRI 17 NOV 1989 House prices to recover next year House prices are expected to reach a turning point in the third quarter of next year after a two-year decline, Charterhouse the merchant and investment banking group said yesterday in its annual study of the housing market. A week ago another firm of...

Of particular note is the March 89 report that The channel tunnel will lead to a 20% rise in prices, 4 months later that the tunnel wil force prices down by 20% ! A 40% variation in 4 months !

By the end of 1989, despite house prices having started to fall during 1989 the banks and related institutions were still issuing bullish announcements on housing market expectations for 1990.

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Re: Your signature:

Not seen/heard of Peter Jay much lately - I can remember always seeing him on the BBC when I was younger and liked his reporting as much as I do Evan Davis's today. That 'possible' 50% crash prediction is quite something else though, being as it was early 2005 - I don't know of anyone else who's as well known in the media who's come up with numbers as big as that, although it's my prediction as well. Even more amazed as it's from someone who is now a non-executive director of the BoE - Merv's chum!!.

I'll have to try and see if I can find some more PJ stories on house prices - I did find the one where you quoted from which is interesting:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/195fb3d0-7bd4-11...000e2511c8.html

That's a great quote. I can remember Peter Jay when I was growing up too. As much as I like Evan Davies the standard and breadth of experience of senior correspondents at the BBC has definitely gone down since those days.

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...within the lenders 'sales' men in denial of HPC have been King ....the Credit Controllers are taking over to salvage the wrecks.....if this is not happening now the Institutions are heading for disaster....what are the BofE and FSA doing ...?....what will they say.....?......they did not see it coming..?......... :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

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That's a great quote. I can remember Peter Jay when I was growing up too. As much as I like Evan Davies the standard and breadth of experience of senior correspondents at the BBC has definitely gone down since those days.

I liked him. He was the first person I heard describe lowering IRs as a means of stimulating demand being like trying to push something using string.

Edited twice to try and make that make sense.

Edited by bobthe~

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