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"cardiff House Prices Need To Fall By 15%"


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...and the rest - but I like his line of thinking. From a few days back - sorry if already posted.

HOUSE prices in South East Wales are over-inflated and in need of a correction, the newest estate agent in Cardiff,Thomas George, has said. Mr George said he hoped his business would be the first in a culture change for estate agents in Wales.

He said, “I think the market in Cardiff needs a slow down. “I’m of the opinion that prices need to fall by 15% – if the average 19 to 25-year-old is earning around £19,000 and house prices average £140,000 they have got no hope of getting on the property ladder.

“That’s why our rentals is doing so well – the market is definitely over-inflated. The only people who set house prices are estate agents, they put them up and they drop them.

“They say prices are to do with supply and demand, but I’m not sure they are. They need to be telling vendors, this is a price we realistically think will be achieved.

“We are doing that straight away and going in with realistic values and I think we can achieve quick sales because of that.

Full Article Here

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...and the rest - but I like his line of thinking. From a few days back - sorry if already posted.

HOUSE prices in South East Wales are over-inflated and in need of a correction, the newest estate agent in Cardiff,Thomas George, has said. Mr George said he hoped his business would be the first in a culture change for estate agents in Wales.

He said, “I think the market in Cardiff needs a slow down. “I’m of the opinion that prices need to fall by 15% – if the average 19 to 25-year-old is earning around £19,000 and house prices average £140,000 they have got no hope of getting on the property ladder.

“That’s why our rentals is doing so well – the market is definitely over-inflated. The only people who set house prices are estate agents, they put them up and they drop them.

“They say prices are to do with supply and demand, but I’m not sure they are. They need to be telling vendors, this is a price we realistically think will be achieved.

“We are doing that straight away and going in with realistic values and I think we can achieve quick sales because of that.

Full Article Here

"Tidy!"

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It's a copula. Used in financial modelling. Needs to be marked to the real world to be useful.

Found it on Wikipedia... hmmm. Is there a direct relevance to HPC? If so, can you explain?

As you seem versed in statistics, can I ask your advice? My mathematics went to A-level followed by a degree with a mathematical slant... but, for some random reason I've managed to escape non-trivial statistics to date. All the material I can find seems to start at GCSE and end at basic A-level; takes an over-simplified applied "social sciences" stance - or, conversely, seems doctorate-level and assumes familiarity beyond my experience. Can you recommend a good text book which assumes a rudimentary A-level understanding and explains modern wisdom on the topic? I like the idea of a text which both explains why metrics are considered valuable and gives examples of appropriate use...

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...and the rest - but I like his line of thinking. From a few days back - sorry if already posted.

HOUSE prices in South East Wales are over-inflated and in need of a correction, the newest estate agent in Cardiff,Thomas George, has said. Mr George said he hoped his business would be the first in a culture change for estate agents in Wales.

He said, “I think the market in Cardiff needs a slow down. “I’m of the opinion that prices need to fall by 15% – if the average 19 to 25-year-old is earning around £19,000 and house prices average £140,000 they have got no hope of getting on the property ladder.

“That’s why our rentals is doing so well – the market is definitely over-inflated. The only people who set house prices are estate agents, they put them up and they drop them.

“They say prices are to do with supply and demand, but I’m not sure they are. They need to be telling vendors, this is a price we realistically think will be achieved.

“We are doing that straight away and going in with realistic values and I think we can achieve quick sales because of that.

Full Article Here

This guy is obviously quite an acute business man.

I believe he is working on the theory that because he is saying his EA business believes house prices need to fall by a perceived 15%,

buyers will flock to his business over all others to get their 15% so called reduction. He will keep his business constant.

But this is obviously a ploy to keep business flowing at the moment, he knows full well houses will drop well beyond 15%

and is cashing in before higher falls are felt.

One thing is for sure, an Estate Agent will never genuinely help buyers or sellers in a financial sense. Although he is attempting to perceive this idea.

All very clever to the unassumming Joe Public.

They know what's on the cards alright, 50% drops are on there way. :P

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This guy is obviously quite an acute business man.

I believe he is working on the theory that because he is saying his EA business believes house prices need to fall by a perceived 15%,

buyers will flock to his business over all others to get their 15% so called reduction. He will keep his business constant.

But this is obviously a ploy to keep business flowing at the moment, he knows full well houses will drop well beyond 15%

and is cashing in before higher falls are felt.

One thing is for sure, an Estate Agent will never genuinely help buyers or sellers in a financial sense. Although he is attempting to perceive this idea.

All very clever to the unassumming Joe Public.

They know what's on the cards alright, 50% drops are on there way. :P

Agree he is just trying to drum up business. I doubt very much he will give valuations 15% lower than all the other estate agents in cardiff.

Dunno about the 50% drops on the way. Surely at least 60% :blink:

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...and the rest - but I like his line of thinking. From a few days back - sorry if already posted.

HOUSE prices in South East Wales are over-inflated and in need of a correction, the newest estate agent in Cardiff,Thomas George, has said. Mr George said he hoped his business would be the first in a culture change for estate agents in Wales.

He said, “I think the market in Cardiff needs a slow down. “I’m of the opinion that prices need to fall by 15% – if the average 19 to 25-year-old is earning around £19,000 and house prices average £140,000 they have got no hope of getting on the property ladder.

“That’s why our rentals is doing so well – the market is definitely over-inflated. The only people who set house prices are estate agents, they put them up and they drop them.

“They say prices are to do with supply and demand, but I’m not sure they are. They need to be telling vendors, this is a price we realistically think will be achieved.

“We are doing that straight away and going in with realistic values and I think we can achieve quick sales because of that.

Full Article Here

Just got back to Jakata after a couple of weeks back in the UK; time mostly spent in Swansea and w. Wales. Amazing, all of Swansea is up for sale but no-one is buying!

My annual trawl of the EA's entertaining. In one I tuned into the refrain of "yes, it's a repo" spoken softly over the phone, the agent admitting to me that repos had doubled in the last 3 months, with 6 in the last week alone.

Another in Mumbles openly confessed that the market had been dead for the past 2 years. Little moving with greedy vendors still reluctant to drop prices- "what good is 10k off an inflated asking price of 400K?" When I suggested that the average local wage was 25K he corrected me saying it was closer to 18K and that people had stretched themselves to breaking point. Those obligatory TT's don't come cheap do they?

There has been a radical change in mood in the last 12 months. The EA's have all read the book and are resigned to the final outcome; the punters still refuse to accept the pathos of the predictable unhappy ending.

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This guy is obviously quite an acute business man.

I believe he is working on the theory that because he is saying his EA business believes house prices need to fall by a perceived 15%,

buyers will flock to his business over all others to get their 15% so called reduction. He will keep his business constant.

buyers can flock where ever they like, if the EA doesn't have the houses they won't get very far. Would you sell your house with an EA that values it 15% below everyone else? What happens if the house you want is with another EA that hasn't cut prices by 15%...just take a larger mortgage?

Whatever the reason for his opinion, it will have little impact until his view on prices impacts all EAs.

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Whatever the reason for his opinion, it will have little impact until his view on prices impacts all EAs.

True. But exciting that the subject is actually being publically discussed by an EA.

Remember the old logician's game of "necessary" and "sufficient" conditions?

A single EA stating publically that price reductions are needed may not be sufficient to cause a crash but it is necessary.

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buyers can flock where ever they like, if the EA doesn't have the houses they won't get very far. Would you sell your house with an EA that values it 15% below everyone else? What happens if the house you want is with another EA that hasn't cut prices by 15%...just take a larger mortgage?

Whatever the reason for his opinion, it will have little impact until his view on prices impacts all EAs.

Why yes, if I was trading up and he had equally valued the new place 15% below everyone else.

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Why yes, if I was trading up and he had equally valued the new place 15% below everyone else.

which assumes that the seller of the new place are happy to put their house on the mkt 15% below what other EAs are willing, which implies that the house that they buy is 15% lower............

Either you are suggesting that this EA has every house in his region on his books or that all EAs have cut prices by 15%. Neither of these are true.

One other factor. If you could buy a house for 15% below what other EAs were selling at but you could sell your house with those other EAs at a higher price, you'd be better off. So you'd put your house on at the higher price and look to buy cheaply. And that is what everyone would do, and hence why the 15% stampede to this EA will not happen because he won't have any houses to sell at that price.

Which leads to one final point. The view may be that EAs set prices, but they are simply working with people's behaviour to get what is best for themselves. Sellers don't have to go with a high EA valuation, they could knock the price down by £25K, £50K, or whatever, but why are they going to do that? The house they want is expensive, the only way is to get as much for their house as they can.

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Found it on Wikipedia... hmmm. Is there a direct relevance to HPC? If so, can you explain?

As you seem versed in statistics, can I ask your advice? My mathematics went to A-level followed by a degree with a mathematical slant... but, for some random reason I've managed to escape non-trivial statistics to date. All the material I can find seems to start at GCSE and end at basic A-level; takes an over-simplified applied "social sciences" stance - or, conversely, seems doctorate-level and assumes familiarity beyond my experience. Can you recommend a good text book which assumes a rudimentary A-level understanding and explains modern wisdom on the topic? I like the idea of a text which both explains why metrics are considered valuable and gives examples of appropriate use...

Any by Sheldon M. Ross

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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