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Milk Inflation


Dr Doom

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I don't keep track of most food prices, but milk seems to be hitting new highs.

I remember back in 2004, 4 pints of milk would cost £1.

Now it costs £1.34.

That seems to be about 10% per year inflation.

Pretty bad.

When you price houses in pints of milk it is clear that the crash is already upon us. I refuse to buy a house until the average price hits 100,000 gallons. I have several churns of the stuff tucked away in Switzerland.

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  • 1 month later...
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http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/i...=52587579932206

It confirmed there has been 'considerable' upward pressure during the first half on raw milk prices caused by strong worldwide markets for dairy ingredients and shortages in UK milk production.

Dairy Crest itself has increased its raw milk prices on both liquid and cheese contracts by over 35 pct since June.

It said it has achieved, or is implementing, price increases across the market on cheese, fresh milk, potted cream and packet butter to reflect these higher input costs.

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Cows feed on grain and other proteins, some of which have risen over 100% in 12 months. We are now seeing a second pulse of inflation coming through from new feed that the farmers are buying in (there's always a lag as farmers often carry very good on-farm stores of fodder - in silos, etc.), as well as higher oil prices.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Edited by gruffydd
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Cows feed on grain and other proteins, some of which have risen over 100% in 12 months. We are now seeing a second pulse of inflation feeding through from new feed that the farmers are buying in, as well as higher oil prices. You ain't seen nothing yet.

Combine this with the fact that the supermarkets have driven many milk producers out of business so that supply has dropped dramatically as farmers decide that producing milk for nothing isn't worth the effort I don't think many people realise how much work is involved in running a dairy herd and the long hours of work. Also increasing milk productivity isn't simple in the short term, even in the long term with land prices as they are it's unlikely that milk production will increase dramatically. The national appetite for 'just in time' supported by the banking system will bring this country to it's knees. I've always been against 'just in time' with essentials like food, electricity, water, etc... it's fine as long as everything goes in a predictable manner but when other factors kick in the 'just in time' philosophy means that many people will suffer.

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Yeah I know, it's terrible.

But like where else am I meant to get milk from,

except supermarkets who are screwing the farmers?

Please don't blame the supermarkets for the terrible prices that UK famers earn for their dairy products. Blame the CAP. Having lived in NZ for over a year now you see what a huge Gallic joke the CAP is at the expense of UK famers. Farmers in NZ drive around in brand new 911's (not all of them but it's not ucommon to see farmers showing their wealth. They have no subsidy allowance for farming and haven't or over 20 years.

This is an intersting article on why it has been so successful.

http://www.newfarm.org/features/0303/newze...subsidies.shtml

If you want to name just one reason why the UK should exit the EU (I don't sign up to that by the way) this is it.

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A load of nonsense - NZ and UK differ hugely - would NZ farmers still be able to farm as they do if they had to rent / buy land that's worth over £5,000 per acre - no - they probably buy land at more like £300 per acre.

And land prices have risen by over 45% here - this year alone - much more than that in Scotland. Madness.

As I said, there's no comparison.

Edited by gruffydd
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A load of nonsense - NZ and UK differ hugely - would NZ farmers still be able to farm as they do if they had to rent / buy land that's worth over £5,000 per acre - no - they probably buy land at more like £300 per acre and therefore the farms a great deal larger and more profitable - in the thousands/ 10s of thousands rather than hundreds of acres.

As I said, there's no comparison.

OK. You do the maths. I reckon this works out to be £9,000 per acre. Sold a coupe of months ago......

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4248104a6011.html

Your right, there is no comparison. ****

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Cows feed on grain and other proteins, some of which have risen over 100% in 12 months. We are now seeing a second pulse of inflation coming through from new feed that the farmers are buying in (there's always a lag as farmers often carry very good on-farm stores of fodder - in silos, etc.), as well as higher oil prices.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

It's been a very bad year for hay making as well. I expect sillage wasn't too badly effected was it Gruff?

How does the average farm brake down in terms of cow feed. What % of the diet is feed as opposed to grass/sillage/hay?

New Zealands advantage is grass all year round - well if you believe the ads.

I think the CAP should be done away with. If we didn't support the miners why support the farmers? I don't see the logic.

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It's been a very bad year for hay making as well. I expect sillage wasn't too badly effected was it Gruff?

How does the average farm brake down in terms of cow feed. What % of the diet is feed as opposed to grass/sillage/hay?

New Zealands advantage is grass all year round - well if you believe the ads.

I think the CAP should be done away with. If we didn't support the miners why support the farmers? I don't see the logic.

I know a dairy farmer near to me who operates the NZ style system, they do only have just grass, no cake or anything and he does dry them off for a couple of months in the winter so, they have no milk cheques for that time but, the quality of the milk throughout the rest of the year is really high in butter fats which means they get a good price for it when they are milking regular.

As for how much and what type of feed dairy farmers use does tend to fluctuate and depends (for some farmers anyway) on price when spuds and turnips are going cheap they tend to feed them these.

If you don't support the farmer, best look forward to a period of forced veganism then eh... ;)

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On NZ land prices - difficult to find up to date figures, but a relation of mine bought reasonable grazing land there for NZ$2,000 back in 2005. less than 1/4 of what you'd pay for the equivalent here in Ceredigion.

NZ prices went down after their reforms - the same would happen here - actually, I take back my earlier nonsense claim Zinny - it would hurt me as an individual if the family land halved in value, but land prices are so out of step with returns a heavy fall would make sense economically - and socially - we would actually be able to justify expanding the holding again.

Not a bad year for silage here - more demand though.

PS. Grass fed beef is better for your health - organic grass fed beef has been shown to actually protect against cancer (Uni of Utah study).

Edited by gruffydd
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I know a dairy farmer near to me who operates the NZ style system, they do only have just grass, no cake or anything and he does dry them off for a couple of months in the winter so, they have no milk cheques for that time but, the quality of the milk throughout the rest of the year is really high in butter fats which means they get a good price for it when they are milking regular.

As for how much and what type of feed dairy farmers use does tend to fluctuate and depends (for some farmers anyway) on price when spuds and turnips are going cheap they tend to feed them these.

If you don't support the farmer, best look forward to a period of forced veganism then eh... ;)

Why's that? Are Brazil or Argentina going to stop exporting???

There really is no excuse for CAP subsidy. If farmers can't stand on their own 2 feet why shouldn't they go to the wall like everybody else?

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