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Moneyweek: My Buy-to-let Dream Cost Me Everything


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
Cheeful chap Malthus - the problem I have with that viewpoint is that, amazingly, the world does just keep producing enough to sustain more people, maybe it's like a house price crash waiting to happen? Jared Diamond's book Collapse is worth a read on the subject of failed civilisations btw.

my concern is that that's because we're "eating" nonrenewable fossil fuel at present - natural gas is the main ingredient of commercial fertiliser.

A return to an organic farming system when fossil fuels become scarce will cause malthus's concerns to appear a lot more pressing.

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Guest tbatst2000
I was thinking that the protestant [with a small p] work ethic applied to most of the population, regardless of religion, race, colour, etc. My old school protestant family would never get into debt, to the extent that most of them never took on a mortgage, and never owned their own homes, unless they could buy them outright.

Same for me really - my grandmother died in the same house that she first rented when she got married 70 years previous (mind you, it was on the old style rent review board type lease so she'd have been bonkers to have bought instead). My dad had a mortgage for a while but paid it off with his retirement payout from the forces. I have just about ever religion going in my family background and none of them wanted to borrow if they could at all avoid it. That attitude really does seem to have passed into history though - as far as I've been able to find out from reading books on economic history, the current generation is more indebted than any previous one by at least an order of magnitude. The ancient Greeks used to literally take ownership of people if they couldn't pay their debts, I wonder if we're headed towards something similar?

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HOLA444
She never stood a chance against these people and all the property porn in every paper and on every channel.

Don't forget that even a couple of weeks ago the press were trumpeting that houses would be ten times salary by 2010 after reproducing some VI survey how can ordinary people see the real truth

This is not a free market never has been.

She has to take some responsibility but so does the f*****s who should have been making sure people like this were not misled.

The state has failed on a massive scale.

Wait till she sees what her pension manager has been buying with her money seems like he went to the same seminars

A lot of sense here. She's been stupid rather than wicked. The wickedness came from those who took her 6 grand, and all the commission. I don't think the state is responsible for protecting her from her own stupidity though; the state's responsibility here is more the nurturing of an asset bubble (aka miracle economy) in the first place.

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Guest tbatst2000
my concern is that that's because we're "eating" nonrenewable fossil fuel at present - natural gas is the main ingredient of commercial fertiliser.

A return to an organic farming system when fossil fuels become scarce will cause malthus's concerns to appear a lot more pressing.

Nah, we'll just have to start breeding more bats. :)

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HOLA446
my concern is that that's because we're "eating" nonrenewable fossil fuel at present - natural gas is the main ingredient of commercial fertiliser.

A return to an organic farming system when fossil fuels become scarce will cause malthus's concerns to appear a lot more pressing.

But look at the money being sunk into new technologies and methods to replace the old fossil fuels.

Malthus advocated moral restraint and vice (in which Malthus included infanticide, murder, contraception and homosexuality) to curb excessive population growth. BUT Malthus proposed moral restraint only for the working classes and the poor.

IS the current situation creating a driver for this? More home repossessions and N.E. creating more poverty, more people who have to work? Remember, this is a world, not solely a UK problem. Perhaps this is all part of a world population reduction. :(

Now I've depressed myself!

Edited by Bossybabe
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HOLA447
This is why the financial services industry (or at least the bit that deals with the general public) is regulated for the most part - to stop fools from being parted from their money by shysters. As more of the industry is covered by rules that stop the worst excesses (e.g. pensions, endowments, etc) the shysters move into new areas that aren't regulated. I wonder what will be next?

Virtual real estate ... I wonder if there are any property investment clubs in Second Life? :P

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HOLA448
Same for me really - my grandmother died in the same house that she first rented when she got married 70 years previous (mind you, it was on the old style rent review board type lease so she'd have been bonkers to have bought instead). My dad had a mortgage for a while but paid it off with his retirement payout from the forces. I have just about ever religion going in my family background and none of them wanted to borrow if they could at all avoid it. That attitude really does seem to have passed into history though - as far as I've been able to find out from reading books on economic history, the current generation is more indebted than any previous one by at least an order of magnitude. The ancient Greeks used to literally take ownership of people if they couldn't pay their debts, I wonder if we're headed towards something similar?

Just think - we could bring back prison for debtors! :P How many of us would that leave on the outside, and what would be the effect on the economy?

Edited by Bossybabe
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HOLA449
Anne is distraught. 'I've worked so hard all my life,' she says. 'Nothing has come easily for me.

No change there then - ready to dance for your rent?

BTW - I strongly suspect that the next bubble will be in fuel... oil; natural gas; electricity etc. In fact, I think it has already started.

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HOLA4415
Gold - Bullion, coins, jewellery seem possible.

We've done endowments, pensions, property.

The only other area I can think might be likely as products become available is carbon credits. It seems a little early yet, but that has the added twist of being a green ponzi scheme.

Carbon credits are the biggest f**kin scam going. Pay someone to pretend to plant trees or buy a poor central amercian family an efficent stove. In reality 90% is creamed off and MD gets to buy a new Bentley.

Carbon offsetting is the modern equivalent of the catholic church selling indulgences.

Installed this yesterday! £600 DIY job. Its already heated my hot water tank to 55 degrees. One step further towards Mr. Barlows energy independence.

Edited by Kurt Barlow
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HOLA4416
If you read right to the end you find out that her only asset is £30k worth of equity in her own home.

So she's not as dim as she sounds!

She took a punt using the banks' money which could well have netted her hundreds of thousands. She lost - but many others with no more acumen than her have won big time.

If she sells her home pronto and buys a cab with the equity before going bankrupt she'll be fine.

At least there's no shortgage of rented flats to choose from in Glasgow!

Once again the banks deserve all that is coming to them for their incompetence.

Spot on. This wee lassie is laughing all the way from the bank. Good for her. All my sympathy is with the bank. Poor thing.

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HOLA4417
......

Installed this yesterday! £600 DIY job. Its already heated my hot water tank to 55 degrees. One step further towards Mr. Barlows energy independence.

Kurt,

Tried to send you a personal message but it's turned off in your profile. Do you have a link to the supplier of your Solar Thermal kit?

Thanks

M21er

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HOLA4418
'I can work till I drop, but I'll never own a home,' she says.

Oh boo hoo. Join the club! She could have had a home if she'd been modest in her ambitions. She obviously wanted to break it big with the property set and get rich quick. Her gamble did not pay off. There are many younger people who took no such gamble and yet may also never own their own home. I know who I feel sorry for.

As for empty new builds, this is kind of an injoke for me. My work involves visiting thousands of peoples homes every week. All kinds of properties, big and small.

And one thing I can tell you about new builds across London.... half of those suckers are indeed EMPTY. And they have stayed empty ALL YEAR. This is from first hand observation on site. And the flats that do become occupied... well lets just say the building quickly resembles a council owned s***hole. That's just the way it is from my own observations. Over the coming years there will be incredibly cheap new build flats up for sale in great quantity.

But I still wouldn't buy one ;)

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HOLA4421
that woman just wanted financial freedom, but at the expense of others

There is no indication from the story that she felt she was trying to do it at the expense of others. It's possible to be a BTL landlord and be offering a valid service. However BTL has probably also had the consequence of inflating house prices too, making it hard for others to buy, but I doubt many BTL landlords have necessarily looked in sufficient detail to see what unintended consequences actions can have.

There has been a presumption for the last 15 years that, even excepting some occasional dips, property only goes up in price. In general it has, but mostly due to the fact that money supply has increased, allowing inflation in some assets. Money supply increase can be a consequence of an expanding economy, but also an expanding economy can be a consequence of expanding M3, and increasing M3 can inflate the price of an asset even if its value has not increased. Cheap credit has allowed M3 to increase and money seeks somewhere to generate a good return, and by going to property, which is funded by fairly large leveraging, it has sort of created its own self-fulfilling truth. Cut off the supply of cheap credit and crimp M3 growth a bit, and it means that it is not worth investing in property, which makes it less worthwhile investing in property, etc., until price matches value again. When price doesn't match value there's a problem. What true value of an asset is is another matter...

One of the newer ideas coming out of economics and psychology is that whilst individual decisions can be entirely logical and valid it can lead to a market which is distorted due to the effect of an ensemble of such decisions, leading to capital being misallocated in a form of market failure. Hopefully, over time, we'll get better economic theories as a result.

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HOLA4422
She bought them during the span of 2-3 years at ever increasing values. I don't believe the situation dramatically changed but she must have thought each next purchase will be a success to bail out existing ones.

I have a feeling that BTL is addictive - akin to gambling and drug-taking.

Good analogy

Baz

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Guest tbatst2000
Just think - we could bring back prison for debtors! :P How many of us would that leave on the outside, and what would be the effect on the economy?

The inside or outside prison thing is a great analogy for the current situation - you've got some large chunk of country on the inside and, because there's so many of them, they effectively change the inside to the normal world and the outside to being the prison. Alternatively, the lunatics have escaped and taken over the asylum. Debtors prisons were an interesting thing - once you were inside you had a certain amount of freedom so you could earn some money to buy your way out but you only got your full liberty back once you'd paid the lot. It seems to me that would act as a very powerful incentive to put your house in order. Sadly, I can't see anyway it would work now since a middle aged taxi-driver from Glasgow - to use the original example in the thread - could never, under any circumstances, pay off a 300K debt. The system did inspire some great literature though (as did the Black Death so maybe that's not such a recommendation).

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