sossij Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 If you want to run a small business in the UK, its quite easy. Just buy a big one and wait. Nice one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Is there a listen again option if so what was the programme please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Is there a listen again option if so what was the programme please? Moneybox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confiteor Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Other than losing 30%-40% of her equity over the next four or five years . So, at worst, she might have to give back some of the equity she has built up over the last decade. Big deal. As an MS sufferer going through a divorce, that would probably not be her biggest worry. I would imagine that in her position, the security of a purchase with a bomb-proof level of equity would make buying the best decision. To argue that is it not the right time for anyone, anywhere, to buy just comes across as slightly churlish. It's part of the reason the host began to chuckle as he introduced Jonathan -- because he knew that he was going to shout crash to every caller regardless of their circumstances, and it was becoming a touch tiresome. It's never as simple as that. I'm as bearish as anyone, but I also think his overall position would have come across as more considered if he had used that caller to prove he was not just completely and obsessively anti-property. But I'm not meaning to be too critical. It was a generally good performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Well done FP! All sounded good to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Moneybox Thanks ozz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 (edited) Sounds like FP controlled the direction of the broadcast. Could we put up a new category for him - Heroes ? Talk about dedicated to the cause! Edited September 24, 2007 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotMyHouse Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 (edited) Hardly a revelation. Thats the whole point of it. Rental yields are nothing. Its the capital growth thats the driving force behind BTL.People have lost faith in standard pensions. They have seen so many company pensions folding and have seen their private pensions gang raped by brown and his goonies. The rise in BTL is is people trying to provide for their old age as they can no longer rely on state/company or private pensions. I quite understand the drive to provide some sort of pension provision. But if capital yields prove to be non-existant for a while, it is back to good old rental yield. And then 5% gross yield suddenly looks mightily unattractive. As we're then back into the "are they in it for the long term" discussion and can the BTL brigade afford to maintain their investment, what with voids, agents' fees, maintenance etc. For example, over a period of twenty or thirty years property ownership, they might have to: Replace the boiler/central heating system (possibly twice with a condensing boiler) Replace the roof (the roof on our rental was replaced before we moved in) Redo the damp proofing in older properties (most damp proof guarantees seem to be pretty worthless) Spray for insect penetration (ditto as per damp proof guarantees) Replace the carpets (probably twice) Redecorate (two or three times) Put in a new kitchen (you are unlikely to be able to charge top dollar without a kitchen that is more than 5 years old) Ditto the bathroom. Like husbands, they look somewhat old and unappealing after twenty years. Rewire Replace cookers, fridges, freezers etc if white goods included (for example, built in) Conform to new fire regulations, insulation regulations, possibly replace all their windows with double glazing to meet the latest energy saving criterae Let's face it, tenants might not actively damage a place, but fair wear and tear takes quite a toll. And shabby rentals don't secure good tenants or attract high rates of returns. Have BTLers created business plans that cover these eventualities until they can retire, sell their asset and realise their gains? Edit - Do BTL "investors" create business plans at all for their properties? Are those plans subject to any financial scrutiny by the lender? Just to top it off, no good financial planner would recommend that you keep your pension pot in a single asset class. I'm not saying there aren't people who are looking ahead, but how do you think history will look at the great years of the BTL boom? I kept a BTL portfolio for thirty years and then cashed out successfully. I'm glad I provided for my retirement and the Chancellor didn't change the tax rules during that time! I got into BTL at the very beginning and cashed out a few months before the Northern Rock went belly up. Thank goodness I did! Fancy another cigar? I got into BTL but the costs and voids meant I lost interest after a few years and sold at a loss. But at least I've got my part-time job stacking shelves at Sainsbury's. I got into BTL at the beginning of the century, lost a fortune and had my house reposessed. Big Issue, mate? Only £10. Thanks a lot, guv'nor. Then, just for fun, try subsituting into the above list DOTCOM for BTL BOO.COM for Northern Rock minus six years from the timescales Edited September 24, 2007 by WantHousewithLand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 BOO.COM Now there was a dotcom company that was going to change the way we bought trendy clothes. Oh yes ! At least their founders (couple of Swedes, I believe) had a good 2 years or so of living the millionaire's dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 The best bit came at the end when they advertised their next program that was going to be about the credit crunch and how it was going to have a negative impact on the property market. It sort of made all the early discussion seem a bit irrelevant. (Although FP did get his points across well, whether it was enough to penetrate conventional wisdom is another matter) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 (edited) THe more FP does the better - its a tough job to make an impact these days - bombarded wid info and adverts at all turns - information overload!!! Just keep at it - keep plugging away FP - you're doing well. I recently ran comms for a festival - took 6 months of hellish work but doubled attendance on last year. You can have an impact but you have to be b****y determined and tenacious. Edited September 24, 2007 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
margesimpson Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 I recently ran comms for a festival - took 6 months of hellish work but doubled attendance on last year. Do the same again next year and you'll be well into double figures. Sorry couldn't resist it. Having organised more concerts in my time than I care to remember, I know just how much works goes into them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashlanded Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 You know, it just goes to show how people can have a voice on national news and TV / radio programmes. Well done Jonathan you wre brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 (edited) "I have to agree with Jonathan, you should not be going into BTL if you have a high loan to value". So it's not only Jonathan who thinks BTLers with little capital shouldn't be doing it Yes, the "File On Four" programme: "What might happen to house prices if the credit squeeze tips them over" Well done Jonathan. It was nice to be able to listen to you. Edited September 24, 2007 by Steve Netwriter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayne The Payne Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Well done FP! Am I the only one to be nicely surprised at how bearish the whole programme came across? Richard Hair of the NAEA did encourage caution all along - where is the usual "property only ever goes up, buy, buy, buy, yada yada" tune? And Ray Boulger mostly highlighted that mortgage deals are getting more expensive and more difficult to get. The presenter was also very reasonable (e.g. are you really considering investing 100% of your capital into property?!). Great to hear all this on national radio. A far cry from last year, surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 25, 2007 Author Share Posted September 25, 2007 FYI - I laid into them b4 the prog for only massively belatedly having a bear on the show. It was essentially accepted as fair criticism though of course it wasn't nice for them to hear it. It was broadly a bearfest ONLY because I was there. Had I not been, it would have been the usual - nothing to worry about, move on b0llocks. File on Four should be excellent - look out for the replay. As ever, there were loads of points I would loved to have made but one can only do what comes to mind at the time. I will continue to say essentially the same things 'cos it takes umpteen times hearing them for people to get them in their thick skulls. I will absolutely say property is going down at every opportunity because it is. It will be very interesting indeed to see if I am invited back on. Thx for all comments. Keep supporting, researching, posting, haranguing media types and politicians. If you can stop just one person from making the biggest financial error of their life, you will sleep better at night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 Fair do FP. Good show. Every little helps, and in your case a good deal lot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methinkshe Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 FYI - I laid into them b4 the prog for only massively belatedly having a bear on the show. It was essentially accepted as fair criticism though of course it wasn't nice for them to hear it.It was broadly a bearfest ONLY because I was there. Had I not been, it would have been the usual - nothing to worry about, move on b0llocks. File on Four should be excellent - look out for the replay. As ever, there were loads of points I would loved to have made but one can only do what comes to mind at the time. I will continue to say essentially the same things 'cos it takes umpteen times hearing them for people to get them in their thick skulls. I will absolutely say property is going down at every opportunity because it is. It will be very interesting indeed to see if I am invited back on. Thx for all comments. Keep supporting, researching, posting, haranguing media types and politicians. If you can stop just one person from making the biggest financial error of their life, you will sleep better at night. I was impressed by your straight talking - no hedging around the obvious like the other commentators. Congratulations! With any luck you should get more invites from the BBC now - they tend to keep coming back to the same person for a specific view, eg Vicky Gillick always gets wheeled out whenever their is an abortion or contraception debate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symo Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 über FP, über. You sounded so balanced in comparison, especially loved your quip at the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 (edited) That was great Jonathon! Thank you. I think that they were embarrassed as they could not argue against you. I listen to these programs all the time and I've never heard them sound anything less than smug. This time there actually was fear and uncertainty in the air. We mananged to get an email read out. My other-half asked about sellers who pitch too high and didn't sell. I've listened to it again and it sounds as if in the last crash people held onto their property and sold it for 10-15% less than they wanted. Does that sound right? Did I get the right impression? One of the guests started off by not admiting there was a problem. Edited September 25, 2007 by Flopsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 25, 2007 Author Share Posted September 25, 2007 "We mananged to get an email read out. My other-half asked about sellers who pitch too high and didn't sell." That was you - fabuloso! When they didn't sell and waited 2 years there would have been a sharp drop in those 2 years - at least 10-15% in many areas. The next 2 years will be the same and much bigger fall. bravo Floppers fp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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