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the end is a bit nigher

Before We Get Too Down

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not been a great couple of days for bears, but before we get too down about it let's remember that many of the big sub-prime players have, for the moment at least, tightened their lending criteria e.g. GMAC RFC, Kensington, DB, and of course NR - this is irrelevant of the rates charged (ok, Abbey seem to have missed the point, but there ya go)

the upshot of this is that there will be fewer people and potential BTLers with fewer mortgage offers and at lower rates - we know what this means

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Guest Shedfish

they just said 'house price crash' on News 24

even so, today's the first time i've ever considered changing from 'Bear'. but i won't

is it my imagination, or did the BoE throw the rulebook, the currency, the economy, and the future, out of the window today?

ho hum

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is it my imagination, or did the BoE throw the rulebook, the currency, the economy, and the future, out of the window today?

ho hum

Well yes, and the Government PROVED that the BoE are not independent at all!!! Are any of the media picking up on this?

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Why should it be simple? These dramatic fluctuations of events and sentiment are interesting in and of themselves.

Seeing politicians and bankers flailing around, telling everybody else to stop panicking whilst panicking themselves is great theatre.

I await the next 'bear eruption' on here with anticipation.

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not been a great couple of days for bears, but before we get too down about it let's remember that many of the big sub-prime players have, for the moment at least, tightened their lending criteria e.g. GMAC RFC, Kensington, DB, and of course NR - this is irrelevant of the rates charged (ok, Abbey seem to have missed the point, but there ya go)

the upshot of this is that there will be fewer people and potential BTLers with fewer mortgage offers and at lower rates - we know what this means

Absolutely, I think if one thing can be said about HP crashes is that they have happened unexpectedly, no amount of encouragement from any VI can precipitate one - if anything I am surprised that such euphoria has evaporated from the site over such a short period when the basic building blocks of your argument are still in place (even though I do not necessarily agree with them).

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My stance on this has been clear for a while. I want house prices to come back to some sensible level but I stated that there is no way this will be allowed to happen as much of the 'wealth' we have is tied up in inflated house prices. The end game here is far worse than even a severe HPC, it will result in the total breakdown of the UK economy. That is the kind of ego Brown has. He will knowingly and with little regard for the consequnces push us down the road to financial oblivion if he can hold on to power for as long as he desires it.

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Well yes, and the Government PROVED that the BoE are not independent at all!!! Are any of the media picking up on this?

i think C4 news touched on it, but i could have dreamt it

Why should it be simple? These dramatic fluctuations of events and sentiment are interesting in and of themselves.

Seeing politicians and bankers flailing around, telling everybody else to stop panicking whilst panicking themselves is great theatre.

I await the next 'bear eruption' on here with anticipation.

Bear Stearns numbers tomorrow! off to fit a can of lager to me tin foil hat :rolleyes:

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Like most I have felt very confused over the last few days, but I now believe this is just a process of a changing trend, ie reversal of the bull market to bear and inflation to dis-inflation then deflation, after all rates always follow the market, and the SM went up whilst rates were being hiked so will do the reverse as the trend changes to down. The 50bps 'shock' has allowed the dow at least to test the highs again, but the tide is most certainly turning, see this article by ewi..

Just a random thought but the Aug '05 cut was in the middle of a hawkish environment hence why the market was easily re-ignited - if rates are now to resume down (as I believe) then this scenario is very different to then, bring on the cuts lets get the deflation party started :)

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/defaul...id=3331*time=pm

Another good article about why the fed cut won't save the passengers...

http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/kass-berna...e/10380295.html

Edited by mew too

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Just by being on here we are more, perhaps much more informed than most.

The crash will hurt, really hurt those who have trusted the "mortgage expert" at the BS (struck me that has 2 meanings)or bank.

This crash will get the hard working, not the benefit chav type.

After the crash government must find a way to stop house prices behaving as an investment with everending bubbles.

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Absolutely, I think if one thing can be said about HP crashes is that they have happened unexpectedly, no amount of encouragement from any VI can precipitate one - if anything I am surprised that such euphoria has evaporated from the site over such a short period when the basic building blocks of your argument are still in place (even though I do not necessarily agree with them).

it will be interesting to see whether or not the appetite for risk in banking circles has been changed or merely temporarily witheld while the markets sort themselves out again - i would like to believe the former but wouldn't be surprised if the latter were the case

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Guest Shedfish
After the crash government must find a way to stop house prices behaving as an investment with everending bubbles.

replace the per capita community charge with a charge per house owned. a bit like rates. if you had a 250+ BTL empire that'd smart a bit. we could all have somewhere to live then, and wouldn't that be just dandy...

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it will be interesting to see whether or not the appetite for risk in banking circles has been changed or merely temporarily witheld while the markets sort themselves out again - i would like to believe the former but wouldn't be surprised if the latter were the case

You could be waiting awhile. My feeling is that the banking crunch is going to go on into 2008.

I don't pretend to understand hedge funds and the like but with these banking problems we don't seem to have heard very much about them recently. Surely hedge funds are the real problem here. It's just that banks have less wriggle-room to hide their excesses and so get spotted quicker.

And who is going to bail out these funds when they collapse?

Edited by Starcrossed

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it will be interesting to see whether or not the appetite for risk in banking circles has been changed or merely temporarily witheld while the markets sort themselves out again - i would like to believe the former but wouldn't be surprised if the latter were the case

I know how you feel, but would point out that CDOs are going to be dead in the water. Despite the government trying to prop up house prices (ironically at the same time saying how terrible it is that no-one can afford a home anymore, let's concrete the home counties and jerrymander while we are at it).

To prop up house prices, the govt needs the banks to play ball and more to the point, doesn't it need foreign banks to play ball? Banks that are going to look from the outside and point to the debt mountain sustained on a huge bubble. I don't think there is any more money to be made from UK mortgages except at the prime end. No BTL, no liar's loans, no adverse over 75% LTV.

All they have done is stop the whole house of cards coming down his week in the belief and hope that we need a recession to precipitate a crash. If the bulls can call a soft landing when there has never been one, why can't we call a crash before the recession? The crash is going to cause the recession IMO, and the recession will then make the crash worth.

Another couple of months of falls or very little growth and the BTL brigade for all their bravado will run for the hills. As I mentioned in another post, all this will do even when peoploe do buy the flats is completely remove the first time buyers from any chain. Starved of a chain, the forced movers at the mid price and even the top will have to take lower prices.

100% correct. Guaranteed.

Oh, alright, wishful thinking.

Starcrossed, as angry as I am at what they have done, I am pretty sure Hedge funds won't get bailed out. It is one thing for NuLab to bail out pensioners and savers for an election, but they ain't going to save those ******* I can assure you.

I'm off to bed. I spend far too much time on here. :)

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I agree with everything you've said bobthe~, but don't you need to go to bed?

Just like my toddler, you're dragging your feet to your bed.

And yes, we all spend far too much time on here. I'm sure the wiffy is going to swipe me laptop at some point while I'm at work!

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